{
  "title": "Regional Economic Outlook (REO): Western Hemisphere - Northern Spring, Southern Chills, April 2015",
  "publication": "Western Hemisphere, October 7, 2015",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/wh/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere7",
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  "summary": "Economies in the Western Hemisphere are generally seeing a slowdown in growth. The U.S. economy regained momentum after a slow start at the beginning of the year, while in Latin America and the Caribbean economic activity continues to decelerate at the regional level. Stronger U.S.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Executive summary and regional outlook",
      "content": "- Economies in the Western Hemisphere are generally seeing a slowdown in growth.\n- The U.S. economy regained momentum after a slow start at the beginning of the year.\n- Latin America and the Caribbean economic activity continues to decelerate at the regional level.\n- Stronger U.S. growth should benefit countries with tighter links through trade, remittances, and tourism (Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean).\n- Weaker commodity prices for the foreseeable future will continue to hurt South America’s net commodity exporters, lowering national incomes, reducing investment, and worsening fiscal balances.\n- These developments could impede progress made in recent years in poverty reduction.\n- Key risks include an abrupt tightening of U.S. interest rates or a further slowdown in China, which may disproportionately affect Latin America."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Short- and medium-term outlook across subregions",
      "content": "- United States and Canada\n  - United States: Following a slow start in early 2015, recovery regains its footing underpinned by resilient consumption and labor markets.\n  - Canada: Continued to lose momentum in the wake of lower oil prices.\n- Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)\n  - Economic activity in LAC is undergoing a protracted slowdown, in tandem with weaker underlying fundamentals.\n  - Growth is projected to decline again in 2015, turning negative before rebounding modestly in 2016.\n  - Renewed weakness in commodity prices has further deteriorated the region’s terms of trade, reflected in widening current account deficits, exchange rate depreciation, and weakening investment.\n  - Financial market strains have risen to varying degrees, with retreating capital flows placing additional downward pressure on currencies and testing credibility of existing policy frameworks.\n  - Domestic headwinds owing to country-specific factors are mounting; policy responses depend on country circumstances, including the depth of the downturn and degree of domestic rigidities.\n  - Some countries have already embarked on policy adjustment, while others will need to tighten policies further to address fiscal or external sustainability concerns.\n  - Net commodity importers can use the breathing room from lower commodity prices to deepen fiscal adjustment.\n  - Exchange rate flexibility remains instrumental for external adjustment, while structural reforms are crucial to address low trend growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key chapters — findings and analyses",
      "content": "- Chapter 1: The United States, Canada, and the World: Outlook, Risks, and Policies\n  - Global growth remains modest and uneven.\n  - After a setback in early 2015, global activity rebounded but the growth outlook remains subdued over both short and longer horizons.\n  - Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including possible stagnation in advanced economies coupled with reduced potential growth in emerging markets.\n  - Policies to raise potential remain a priority, with investment and structural reform being crucial.\n\n- Chapter 2: Outlook and Policy Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean\n  - Identifies protracted slowdown and weaker fundamentals across LAC.\n  - Documents consequences of weaker commodity prices: deteriorated terms of trade, wider current account deficits, exchange rate depreciation, weaker investment.\n  - Stresses the importance of country-specific policy responses, fiscal and external sustainability, exchange rate flexibility, and structural reforms.\n\n- Chapter 3: To Hike or Not to Hike: Is That an Option for Latin America? Assessing Monetary Policy Autonomy\n  - Quantifies likely impact and risks for domestic financial conditions in Latin America from Federal Reserve normalization.\n  - Explores the extent to which central banks in the region can keep rates aligned with domestic objectives.\n  - Discusses policies that can enhance monetary autonomy.\n\n- Chapter 4: Trade Integration in Latin America and the Caribbean: Hype, Hope, and Reality\n  - Finds LAC is less open to trade than most other emerging market regions and many countries are \"undertrading\" given fundamentals.\n  - Strong performers penetrate large markets, including advanced economies, requiring higher productivity and competitiveness.\n  - LAC stands to benefit from deeper integration into global value chains, though direct short-term trade impact is likely to be small.\n  - Recommends trade agreements focus on raising global competitiveness and avoid creating regionally protected trade blocks.\n\n- Chapter 5: Advancing Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean\n  - Access to financial institutions has expanded notably in the past decade; LAC compares favorably with other emerging market regions on this dimension.\n  - The region lags peers on broader financial development, especially regarding markets, with substantial heterogeneity across countries.\n  - Financial systems in many LAC countries appear underdeveloped relative to their macroeconomic fundamentals.\n  - Further financial development would likely convey net benefits provided there is adequate regulatory oversight to prevent excesses."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and implications",
      "content": "- Use exchange rate flexibility to aid external adjustment.\n- Net commodity importers can deepen fiscal adjustment to take advantage of lower commodity prices.\n- Countries facing fiscal or external sustainability concerns should tighten policies further as appropriate to country circumstances.\n- Raise potential growth through investment and structural reforms.\n- Enhance monetary policy autonomy via appropriate policy tools and frameworks to mitigate spillovers from U.S. monetary normalization.\n- Pursue trade policies and regional agreements that raise global competitiveness and facilitate integration into global value chains.\n- Promote financial development with strong regulatory oversight to balance growth benefits and financial stability risks.\n\nSource: Regional Economic Outlook (REO): Western Hemisphere - Northern Spring, Southern Chills, April 2015\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Resumo Analítico\n  - Resumo Analítico (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Resumo Analítico (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Perspectivas económicas: Las Américas - Ajustando bajo presión; Octubre de 2015\n  - Perspectivas económicas: Las Américas - Ajustando bajo presión; Octubre de 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Perspectivas económicas: Las Américas - Ajustando bajo presión; Octubre de 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/wh/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere7"
    }
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    "Published: October 7, 2015",
    "Series: Western Hemisphere",
    "Economies in the Western Hemisphere are generally seeing a slowdown in growth.",
    "The U.S. economy regained momentum after a slow start at the beginning of the year.",
    "Latin America and the Caribbean economic activity continues to decelerate at the regional level.",
    "Stronger U.S. growth should benefit countries with tighter links through trade, remittances, and tourism (Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean).",
    "Weaker commodity prices for the foreseeable future will continue to hurt South America’s net commodity exporters, lowering national incomes, reducing investment, and worsening fiscal balances.",
    "These developments could impede progress made in recent years in poverty reduction.",
    "Key risks include an abrupt tightening of U.S. interest rates or a further slowdown in China, which may disproportionately affect Latin America.",
    "United States and Canada",
    "Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)",
    "Chapter 1: The United States, Canada, and the World: Outlook, Risks, and Policies",
    "Chapter 2: Outlook and Policy Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean",
    "Chapter 3: To Hike or Not to Hike: Is That an Option for Latin America? Assessing Monetary Policy Autonomy",
    "Chapter 4: Trade Integration in Latin America and the Caribbean: Hype, Hope, and Reality",
    "Chapter 5: Advancing Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean",
    "Use exchange rate flexibility to aid external adjustment.",
    "Net commodity importers can deepen fiscal adjustment to take advantage of lower commodity prices.",
    "Countries facing fiscal or external sustainability concerns should tighten policies further as appropriate to country circumstances.",
    "Raise potential growth through investment and structural reforms.",
    "Enhance monetary policy autonomy via appropriate policy tools and frameworks to mitigate spillovers from U.S. monetary normalization.",
    "Pursue trade policies and regional agreements that raise global competitiveness and facilitate integration into global value chains.",
    "Promote financial development with strong regulatory oversight to balance growth benefits and financial stability risks.",
    "**Resumo Analítico**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015**",
    "**Perspectivas económicas: Las Américas - Ajustando bajo presión; Octubre de 2015**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Adjusting Under Pressure; October 2015**",
    "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)",
    "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)"
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