{ "title": "Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Shifting Winds, New Policy Challenges, October 2011 -- Table of Contents", "publication": "Western Hemisphere, October 5, 2011", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/wh/issues/2017/01/07/shifting-winds-new-policy-challenges", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/wh/issues/2017/01/07/shifting-winds-new-policy-challenges", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/reo/wh/issues/2017/01/07/shifting-winds-new-policy-challenges/index.md", "summary": "IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - October 2011 -- Table of Contents", "sections": [ { "heading": "Executive summary and regional outlook", "content": "- Despite the recent deterioration in the global economic environment, projections for the region involve only a modest worsening of the outlook (October 2011).\n- Severe downside risks are highlighted:\n - A sharp slowdown in Asia, for example in response to a recession in advanced economies, could impact commodity prices, with negative effects on Latin American commodity exporters.\n - Global monetary policy likely to remain accommodative; capital flows could exacerbate overheating and amplify vulnerabilities in emerging markets.\n- Countries with strong real linkages to the United States face a somewhat weaker outlook and should give priority to reducing public debt.\n- Much of the Caribbean is recovering from a prolonged recession, but the outlook remains constrained by high public debt and weak tourism flows.\n- Policies can play an important role in mitigating the economic impact of terms-of-trade shocks; underscores the need to rebuild policy buffers." }, { "heading": "Global, U.S., and Canadian outlook and policy challenges", "content": "- Global outlook: slowing growth with dominant downside risks; \"Policy Options: Rebalancing Demand\" is a focal policy discussion.\n- United States: characterized as \"A Tough Balancing Act\"; includes \"U.S. Policy Options\".\n- Canada: \"A Slowing Recovery\"; includes \"Canada Policy Options\".\n- Implications for Latin America and the Caribbean are considered in the context of U.S. and global developments." }, { "heading": "Outlook and policy issues for Latin America and the Caribbean", "content": "- Overview and Policy Challenges sections organize regional heterogeneity:\n - South America: Financial Integrated Commodity Exporters—Guarding against Overheating.\n - South America: Less Financially Integrated Commodity Exporters—Avoiding Procyclicality.\n - Mexico and Central America: More Headwinds to Growth.\n - The Caribbean: Repairing Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets.\n- Labor market analysis:\n - \"How Tight Are Labor Markets in Inflation-Targeting Countries?\"\n - \"Estimating the Nonaccelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment\" and \"Policy Implications\".\n- Macroprudential policy assessment:\n - \"Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies\" with Cross-Country Analysis and Sectoral Evidence.\n- Fiscal challenges:\n - \"Fiscal Consolidation Challenges in Tourism-Intensive Economies\"." }, { "heading": "Commodity price cycles and terms-of-trade shocks", "content": "- Chapter 3: \"Commodity Price Cycles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom\" examines:\n - Historical perspective on commodity prices.\n - Degree of commodity dependence: \"How Commodity Dependent is Latin America?\"\n - Determinants of economic performance during terms-of-trade busts via Cross-Sectional and Panel approaches.\n - \"Key Takeaways and Policy Implications\" focused on managing booms and busts." }, { "heading": "Analytical annexes and data", "content": "- Annex materials include:\n - Additional Figures.\n - Cross-Sectional Approach: List of Explanatory and Control Variables.\n - Western Hemisphere: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2005–11.\n - Western Hemisphere: Main Economic Indicators, October 2011.\n - Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators, October 2011.\n - References.\n - New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, January 2010–August 2011." }, { "heading": "Boxes and topics highlighted", "content": "- Boxes cover a range of targeted issues, including:\n - U.S. Housing and Labor Markets: Headwinds to Recovery.\n - U.S. Financial Exposure to Europe.\n - Budget Institutions for U.S. Fiscal Consolidation.\n - Latin America: Banking Sector Spillovers from the European Crisis.\n - Latin America: Fiscal Adjustment with Social Cohesion.\n - Rule-Based Fiscal Frameworks for Latin America.\n - Challenges for Financial Regulation and Supervision in Latin America.\n - Recent Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Latin America and the Caribbean.\n - U.S. Monetary Policy and Commodity Prices.\n - Latin America’s Commodity Dependence and Export Diversification: Selected Cases.\n - Export- or Import-Induced Terms-of-Trade Shocks: Are They Different?\n - The Cost of Mismanaging Abundance.\n\nRegional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Shifting Winds, New Policy Challenges, October 2011 -- Table of Contents\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere — October 2011\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere — October 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere — October 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- wreo1011s\n - wreo1011s (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - wreo1011s (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Wreo1011c1pdf\n - Wreo1011c1pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Wreo1011c1pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- wreo1011c2pdf\n - wreo1011c2pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - wreo1011c2pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Wreo1011c3pdf\n - Wreo1011c3pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Wreo1011c3pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators\n - Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Executive Summary\n - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Main Economic Indicators, October 2011\n - Main Economic Indicators, October 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Main Economic Indicators, October 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators\n - Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, January 2010–August 2011\n - New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, January 2010–August 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, January 2010–August 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- wreo1011prefacepdf\n - wreo1011prefacepdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - wreo1011prefacepdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- References — Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere\n - References — Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - References — Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Press Release: IMF Sees Latin America Facing a Range of Challenges from Global Crisis\n- Western Hemisphere: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive\n- Regional Economic Outlooks\n- IMF Regional Reports\n- World Economic Outlook Archives\n- Subscribe\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/wh/issues/2017/01/07/shifting-winds-new-policy-challenges" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/wh/issues/2017/01/07/shifting-winds-new-policy-challenges/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/wh/issues/2017/01/07/shifting-winds-new-policy-challenges/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/wh/issues/2017/01/07/shifting-winds-new-policy-challenges/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: October 5, 2011", "Series: Western Hemisphere", "Despite the recent deterioration in the global economic environment, projections for the region involve only a modest worsening of the outlook (October 2011).", "Severe downside risks are highlighted:", "Countries with strong real linkages to the United States face a somewhat weaker outlook and should give priority to reducing public debt.", "Much of the Caribbean is recovering from a prolonged recession, but the outlook remains constrained by high public debt and weak tourism flows.", "Policies can play an important role in mitigating the economic impact of terms-of-trade shocks; underscores the need to rebuild policy buffers.", "Global outlook: slowing growth with dominant downside risks; \"Policy Options: Rebalancing Demand\" is a focal policy discussion.", "United States: characterized as \"A Tough Balancing Act\"; includes \"U.S. Policy Options\".", "Canada: \"A Slowing Recovery\"; includes \"Canada Policy Options\".", "Implications for Latin America and the Caribbean are considered in the context of U.S. and global developments.", "Overview and Policy Challenges sections organize regional heterogeneity:", "Labor market analysis:", "Macroprudential policy assessment:", "Fiscal challenges:", "Chapter 3: \"Commodity Price Cycles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom\" examines:", "Annex materials include:", "Boxes cover a range of targeted issues, including:", "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere — October 2011**", "**wreo1011s**", "**Wreo1011c1pdf**", "**_wreo1011c2pdf**", "**Wreo1011c3pdf**", "**Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators**", "**Executive Summary**", "**Main Economic Indicators, October 2011**", "**Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators**", "**New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, January 2010–August 2011**", "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere**", "**_wreo1011prefacepdf**", "**References — Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere**", "[Press Release: IMF Sees Latin America Facing a Range of Challenges from Global Crisis](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11356.htm)", "[Western Hemisphere: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx?ddlRegions=12&ddlYear=-1)", "[Regional Economic Outlooks](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx)", "[IMF Regional Reports](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/region.asp)", "[World Economic Outlook Archives](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)", "[Subscribe](https://www.imf.org/external/RSS/feeds.aspx?Category=PUBS_GF)", "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)", "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)" ], 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