{
  "title": "Inflation in Portugal: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Risks",
  "publication": "Selected Issues Papers, July 10, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2023/07/11/inflation-in-portugal-recent-trends-drivers-and-risks-535838",
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  "summary": "This paper examines recent trends, main drivers, and risks to near-term inflation in Portugal. Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low, often below the Euro Area average, but it accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Authors and publication",
      "content": "- By Kamil Dybczak, Ippei Shibata\n- July 10, 2023\n- Selected Issues Paper No. 2023/044\n- Pages: 20\n- Volume: 2023\n- Issue: 044\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400247309.018\n- Stock No: SIPEA2023044\n- ISBN: 9798400247309\n- ISSN: 2958-7875"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and analysis",
      "content": "- Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low and often below the Euro Area average.\n- Inflation accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022.\n- An estimated Phillips curve regression for Portugal suggests inflation has been largely driven by:\n  - food price pressures, and\n  - external price pressures.\n- The analysis finds similarities with other Euro Area countries in the drivers of inflation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Projections",
      "content": "- Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting:\n  - receding energy prices, and\n  - anchored inflation expectations."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and uncertainties",
      "content": "- Uncertainty remains high regarding the near-term inflation path.\n- Inflation could remain elevated under the following scenarios highlighted in the paper:\n  - if the inflationary process became backward looking, or\n  - if wage-inflation spirals are induced by pressures from energy prices."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Commodity prices, Energy prices, Inflation, International organization, Labor, Monetary policy, Oil prices, Prices, Wages\n- Keywords: anchored inflation expectation, C. inflation projection, Commodity prices, Energy prices, Global, HICP inflation weight, Inflation, inflation in Portugal, oil prices, pass-through, second-round effects, wage-inflation spiral, wages\n\nSource: Inflation in Portugal: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Risks (Selected Issues Papers 2023/044), IMF\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- sipea2023044 - Sections 1–2\n  - sipea2023044 - Sections 1–2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - sipea2023044 - Sections 1–2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2023/07/11/inflation-in-portugal-recent-trends-drivers-and-risks-535838"
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    "Authors: Kamil Dybczak, Ippei Shibata",
    "Published: July 10, 2023",
    "Series: Selected Issues Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400247309.018",
    "By Kamil Dybczak, Ippei Shibata",
    "July 10, 2023",
    "Selected Issues Paper No. 2023/044",
    "Pages: 20",
    "Volume: 2023",
    "Issue: 044",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400247309.018",
    "Stock No: SIPEA2023044",
    "ISBN: 9798400247309",
    "ISSN: 2958-7875",
    "Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low and often below the Euro Area average.",
    "Inflation accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022.",
    "An estimated Phillips curve regression for Portugal suggests inflation has been largely driven by:",
    "The analysis finds similarities with other Euro Area countries in the drivers of inflation.",
    "Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting:",
    "Uncertainty remains high regarding the near-term inflation path.",
    "Inflation could remain elevated under the following scenarios highlighted in the paper:",
    "Subject: Commodity prices, Energy prices, Inflation, International organization, Labor, Monetary policy, Oil prices, Prices, Wages",
    "Keywords: anchored inflation expectation, C. inflation projection, Commodity prices, Energy prices, Global, HICP inflation weight, Inflation, inflation in Portugal, oil prices, pass-through, second-round effects, wage-inflation spiral, wages",
    "**sipea2023044 - Sections 1–2**"
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