## Estimating Potential Output in Niger: Niger

_Selected Issues Papers, April 18, 2025_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Estimating Potential Output in Niger: Niger](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/04/18/estimating-potential-output-in-niger-niger-566313)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe
- Published: April 18, 2025
- Series: Selected Issues Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229006507.018

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### Key findings on potential growth
- Potential growth in Niger is estimated at around 6 percent.
- Labor provides a structurally significant contribution to potential growth.
- Peaks of growth are associated with higher investment in physical capital.
- Growth is constrained by weak productivity, limited structural transformation, and inadequate economic diversification.
- Downside risks to growth stem mainly from regional insecurity and adverse climate shocks.

### Drivers and constraints
- Drivers highlighted:
  - Labor accumulation (structurally significant).
  - Investment in physical capital (associated with growth peaks).
- Constraints highlighted:
  - Weak productivity.
  - Limited structural transformation.
  - Inadequate economic diversification.
- External and regional risks:
  - Regional insecurity.
  - Adverse climate shocks.

### Policy priorities and measures to boost growth
- Investment in human capital.
- Development of the extractive sector.
- Development of agro-industrial value chains.
- Diffusion of digital technologies.

### Thematic tags and technical focus
- Subject areas: Human capital, Labor, Output gap, Potential output, Production, Total factor productivity.
- Methodological and topical keywords: B. sectoral growth trend, Economic Growth, Global, Growth decomposition, growth in Niger, Human capital, I. Cobb-Douglas production function, Output gap, output gap estimate, output gap estimation, Potential output, Production function, Statistical filters, Total factor productivity, West Africa.

*By Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe, April 18, 2025 — Selected Issues Paper (21 pages).*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Contributions to Real GDP Growth in Niger**
  - [Contributions to Real GDP Growth in Niger (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2025/english/sipea2025041.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Contributions to Real GDP Growth in Niger (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2025/english/sipea2025041.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/04/18/estimating-potential-output-in-niger-niger-566313_