{
  "title": "Population Dynamics, Labor Market Integration, and Migration: Republic of North Macedonia",
  "publication": "Selected Issues Papers, May 21, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/05/22/population-dynamics-labor-market-integration-and-migration-republic-of-north-macedonia-567062",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/05/22/population-dynamics-labor-market-integration-and-migration-republic-of-north-macedonia-567062",
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  "summary": "The population of North Macedonia has been steadily declining over the past two decades and is projected to continue to decline into the foreseeable future due to emigration. This paper estimates an expected cost of the population decline on potential output growth of around 0.5 percentage points.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- The population of North Macedonia has been steadily declining over the past two decades and is projected to continue to decline into the foreseeable future due to emigration.\n- The paper estimates an expected cost of the population decline on potential output growth of around 0.5 percentage points.\n- The analysis employs a structural model of the European labor market with migration."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Main findings",
      "content": "- Demographic trend: steady population decline over the past two decades driven primarily by emigration.\n- Macroeconomic impact: expected cost on potential output growth of around 0.5 percentage points.\n- Model insight: increasing productivity benefits potential output and helps protect the labor force from emigration."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Model and scenarios",
      "content": "- Structural framework: a structural model of the European labor market with migration is used to assess interactions between productivity, labor supply, and migration.\n- Scenario implications:\n  - Productivity improvements raise potential output and reduce emigration pressure on the labor force.\n  - Without offsetting measures, ongoing emigration continues to exert downward pressure on potential output consistent with the estimated cost."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Productivity-increasing structural reforms.\n- Active labor market policies.\n- New business support.\n- Labor participation support.\n- Combined implementation of these measures can boost output and help offset some of the negative impact of migration."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject tags and keywords (as provided)",
      "content": "- Subject: Gender, Gender inequality, Labor, Labor markets, Population and demographics, Potential output, Production, Unemployment\n- Keywords: D. modeling labor markets, EU integration, Gender inequality, labor market integration, Labor Markets, Migration, North Macedonia, Northern Europe, policy scenario, Population, population dynamics, Potential output, Unemployment\n\nSource: Stephen Ayerst, Simona Kovachevska Stefanova, \"Population Dynamics, Labor Market Integration, and Migration: Republic of North Macedonia\", May 21, 2025.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Change in Population in North Macedonia and the Western Balkan Countries\n  - Change in Population in North Macedonia and the Western Balkan Countries (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Change in Population in North Macedonia and the Western Balkan Countries (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/05/22/population-dynamics-labor-market-integration-and-migration-republic-of-north-macedonia-567062"
    }
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    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/05/22/population-dynamics-labor-market-integration-and-migration-republic-of-north-macedonia-567062/index.json)",
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    "Authors: Stephen Ayerst, Simona Kovachevska Stefanova",
    "Published: May 21, 2025",
    "Series: Selected Issues Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229011389.018",
    "The population of North Macedonia has been steadily declining over the past two decades and is projected to continue to decline into the foreseeable future due to emigration.",
    "The paper estimates an expected cost of the population decline on potential output growth of around 0.5 percentage points.",
    "The analysis employs a structural model of the European labor market with migration.",
    "Demographic trend: steady population decline over the past two decades driven primarily by emigration.",
    "Macroeconomic impact: expected cost on potential output growth of around 0.5 percentage points.",
    "Model insight: increasing productivity benefits potential output and helps protect the labor force from emigration.",
    "Structural framework: a structural model of the European labor market with migration is used to assess interactions between productivity, labor supply, and migration.",
    "Scenario implications:",
    "Productivity-increasing structural reforms.",
    "Active labor market policies.",
    "New business support.",
    "Labor participation support.",
    "Combined implementation of these measures can boost output and help offset some of the negative impact of migration.",
    "Subject: Gender, Gender inequality, Labor, Labor markets, Population and demographics, Potential output, Production, Unemployment",
    "Keywords: D. modeling labor markets, EU integration, Gender inequality, labor market integration, Labor Markets, Migration, North Macedonia, Northern Europe, policy scenario, Population, population dynamics, Potential output, Unemployment",
    "**Change in Population in North Macedonia and the Western Balkan Countries**"
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