{
  "title": "Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications for Ireland",
  "publication": "Selected Issues Papers, July 8, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/07/07/geoeconomic-fragmentation-implications-for-ireland-568367",
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  "summary": "Ireland’s economy is deeply connected to the global trade network and relies on foreign direct investment (FDI), notably from the US.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Authors: Rossen Rozenov, Zhao Zhang\n- Date: July 8, 2025\n- Core focus: Assessing the impact of geo-economic fragmentation on Ireland’s economy, which is deeply connected to the global trade network and relies on foreign direct investment (FDI), notably from the US.\n- Three channels analyzed:\n  - Supply chain disruptions\n  - Trade distortions resulting from tariff increases\n  - FDI relocation, including driven by tax policy changes"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Analytical framework",
      "content": "- Framework designed to estimate impacts via the three channels listed above.\n- Emphasis on quantifying effects on value added and the indigenous economy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Supply chain disruptions:\n  - Under moderate shock assumptions, the impact of supply disruptions would be relatively contained.\n- Trade distortions (tariff increases):\n  - Under moderate shock assumptions, the impact of higher tariffs would be relatively contained.\n- FDI relocation:\n  - Potential FDI relocations would be associated with a sizeable loss of value added.\n  - The impact on the indigenous economy from FDI relocations would be more limited."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and emphasis",
      "content": "- Monitoring FDI dynamics is critical given the potential for sizeable losses in value added from FDI relocation.\n- Policies to mitigate supply chain risk and manage trade distortions remain relevant, though moderate shocks imply contained impacts.\n- Tax policy and its role in FDI location decisions merit attention due to their influence on relocation risks.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Sipea2025089\n  - Sipea2025089 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Sipea2025089 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/07/07/geoeconomic-fragmentation-implications-for-ireland-568367"
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    "Authors: Rossen Rozenov, Zhao Zhang",
    "Published: July 8, 2025",
    "Series: Selected Issues Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229016766.018",
    "Authors: Rossen Rozenov, Zhao Zhang",
    "Date: July 8, 2025",
    "Core focus: Assessing the impact of geo-economic fragmentation on Ireland’s economy, which is deeply connected to the global trade network and relies on foreign direct investment (FDI), notably from the US.",
    "Three channels analyzed:",
    "Framework designed to estimate impacts via the three channels listed above.",
    "Emphasis on quantifying effects on value added and the indigenous economy.",
    "Supply chain disruptions:",
    "Trade distortions (tariff increases):",
    "FDI relocation:",
    "Monitoring FDI dynamics is critical given the potential for sizeable losses in value added from FDI relocation.",
    "Policies to mitigate supply chain risk and manage trade distortions remain relevant, though moderate shocks imply contained impacts.",
    "Tax policy and its role in FDI location decisions merit attention due to their influence on relocation risks.",
    "**Sipea2025089**"
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