## Sea-Level Rise and Climate Adaptation in Aruba

_Selected Issues Papers, December 30, 2025_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Sea-Level Rise and Climate Adaptation in Aruba](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/12/30/sea-level-rise-and-climate-adaptation-in-aruba-572942)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/12/30/sea-level-rise-and-climate-adaptation-in-aruba-572942/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/12/30/sea-level-rise-and-climate-adaptation-in-aruba-572942/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/12/30/sea-level-rise-and-climate-adaptation-in-aruba-572942/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Emanuele Massetti
- Published: December 30, 2025
- Series: Selected Issues Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229034920.018

---

### Overview
- Sea-level rise presents long-term risks in Aruba that can lead to sizable permanent costs with potentially large macroeconomic and fiscal consequences.
- Aruba cannot control global sea-level, but it can manage how it affects the country by adapting.
- IMF Staff use the state-of-the-art model CIAM to estimate impacts and adaptation benefits.

### Key findings
- Planned coastline protection—in the form of dykes, revetment, floodgates, costal dunes, etc.—can reduce losses by approximately 40 percent by avoiding permanent inundation of land and relocation of population.
- Estimates of protection costs in Aruba are around 0.4 percent of annual GDP with a moderate emission scenario and do not grow.
- Implementing coastal protections will likely require an increase in public spending as coastal protections are public infrastructure.

### Estimates and projections
- Loss reduction from planned coastline protection: approximately 40 percent.
- Estimated protection costs: around 0.4 percent of annual GDP under a moderate emission scenario.
- Nature of costs over time: do not grow (under the stated scenario).

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Prioritize planned coastline protection measures (dykes, revetment, floodgates, costal dunes) to avoid permanent inundation and population relocation.
- Recognize the fiscal implication that protection is public infrastructure likely requiring increased public spending.

*Sea-Level Rise and Climate Adaptation in Aruba, Emanuele Massetti, Selected Issues Papers, December 30, 2025.*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **Sipea2025157**
  - [Sipea2025157 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2025/english/sipea2025157.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Sipea2025157 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2025/english/sipea2025157.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/12/30/sea-level-rise-and-climate-adaptation-in-aruba-572942_