## Golden Vision 2045: Reaping the Gains from Trade

_Selected Issues Papers, February 5, 2026_

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**Canonical URL:** [Golden Vision 2045: Reaping the Gains from Trade](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2026/02/04/golden-vision-2045-reaping-the-gains-from-trade-573708)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Ashique Habib
- Published: February 5, 2026
- Series: Selected Issues Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229038041.018

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### Main findings
- Indonesia is pursuing a broad push towards greater trade openness with regional and global partners to leverage external demand to reach high-income status by 2045.
- Deeper trade integration, focusing on reducing non-tariff barriers, along with complementary structural reforms, can generate significant GDP gains for Indonesia.
- Gains can arise from unilateral actions on reducing non-tariff barriers affecting imports and would be amplified by increasing market access in the context of trade agreements with major partners.
- Structural reforms in other areas—such as human capital and logistics—can further enhance trade integration by reducing trade costs on their own and by helping Indonesia broaden comparative advantage across sectors.
- An ambitious trade liberalization and structural reform program could make Indonesia "open for business" amid shifting global supply chains; resulting GVC-integration, supported by FDI, could drive gains beyond this paper’s estimates.
- The analysis is positioned against ongoing trade policy shocks.

### Policy recommendations and scenarios
- Prioritize reduction of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) affecting imports as a central trade policy action.
- Pursue increased market access through trade agreements with major partners to amplify the gains from NTB reductions.
- Implement complementary structural reforms in human capital and logistics to:
  - Reduce trade costs directly.
  - Broaden comparative advantage across sectors, enhancing the effectiveness of trade policy.
- Aim for an integrated program of trade liberalization and structural reform to attract FDI and foster deeper GVC-integration.

### Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Comparative advantage, Economic integration, International trade, Macrostructural analysis, Structural reforms, Trade integration, Trade policy
- Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Comparative advantage, gains from trade, Global, IMF staff, Indonesia, International Trade, Non-tariff Measures, North America, reform scenario, Structural reforms, trade cost, Trade Integration, Trade policy, trade policy shock

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2026/02/04/golden-vision-2045-reaping-the-gains-from-trade-573708_