{
  "title": "Malta’s Growth-at-Risk: Exploring the Effects of Macro-Financial Factors on Growth",
  "publication": "Selected Issues Papers, March 13, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2026/03/13/maltas-growth-at-risk-exploring-the-effects-of-macro-financial-factors-on-growth-574645",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2026/03/13/maltas-growth-at-risk-exploring-the-effects-of-macro-financial-factors-on-growth-574645",
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  "summary": "This paper employs a Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to assess the impact of macro-financial variables on the growth rate distribution of Malta over a one-to-two-year horizon.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Framework: Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework applied to Malta.\n- Horizon: one-to-two-year horizon.\n- General finding: Baseline outlook is positive, but notable tail risks exist."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Domestic tail risks:\n  - Large tail risks are associated with residential housing prices.\n  - Large tail risks are associated with household credit.\n- External factors:\n  - External factors from the Euro Area are likely to have a smaller direct impact on Malta’s growth rate distribution.\n  - Transmission of Euro Area effects occurs through financial conditions in the bloc.\n- Distributional focus:\n  - Analysis assesses impacts on the growth rate distribution rather than only on point forecasts."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and considerations",
      "content": "- Monitor domestic housing market dynamics and household credit growth closely given their outsized contribution to downside growth risk.\n- Strengthen macroprudential and financial-sector policies targeting household leverage and residential housing vulnerabilities.\n- Track Euro Area financial conditions for indirect spillovers despite a smaller direct effect on Malta’s growth distribution."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology and scope",
      "content": "- Approach: Growth-at-Risk framework linking macro-financial variables to future growth distribution.\n- Geographic focus: Malta, with consideration of transmission from the Euro Area.\n- Timeframe covered by projections: one-to-two-year horizon."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords (as listed)",
      "content": "- Subject: Credit, Financial conditions index, Financial sector policy and analysis, Growth-at-risk assessment, Housing, Housing prices, Money, National accounts, Prices\n- Keywords: Credit, credit growth, Europe, financial conditions, Financial conditions index, Financial factor, Financial vulnerabilities, Global, Growth-at-risk assessment, housing, Housing prices, IMF country, IMF staff, issues paper, macroprudential policy, Malta's Growth-at-Risk, systemic risk\n\nSource: Malta’s Growth-at-Risk: Exploring the Effects of Macro-Financial Factors on Growth (Fuad Hasanov, March 13, 2026).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Sipea2026022\n  - Sipea2026022 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Sipea2026022 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2026/03/13/maltas-growth-at-risk-exploring-the-effects-of-macro-financial-factors-on-growth-574645"
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    "Authors: Fuad Hasanov",
    "Published: March 13, 2026",
    "Series: Selected Issues Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229041652.018",
    "Framework: Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework applied to Malta.",
    "Horizon: one-to-two-year horizon.",
    "General finding: Baseline outlook is positive, but notable tail risks exist.",
    "Domestic tail risks:",
    "External factors:",
    "Distributional focus:",
    "Monitor domestic housing market dynamics and household credit growth closely given their outsized contribution to downside growth risk.",
    "Strengthen macroprudential and financial-sector policies targeting household leverage and residential housing vulnerabilities.",
    "Track Euro Area financial conditions for indirect spillovers despite a smaller direct effect on Malta’s growth distribution.",
    "Approach: Growth-at-Risk framework linking macro-financial variables to future growth distribution.",
    "Geographic focus: Malta, with consideration of transmission from the Euro Area.",
    "Timeframe covered by projections: one-to-two-year horizon.",
    "Subject: Credit, Financial conditions index, Financial sector policy and analysis, Growth-at-risk assessment, Housing, Housing prices, Money, National accounts, Prices",
    "Keywords: Credit, credit growth, Europe, financial conditions, Financial conditions index, Financial factor, Financial vulnerabilities, Global, Growth-at-risk assessment, housing, Housing prices, IMF country, IMF staff, issues paper, macroprudential policy, Malta's Growth-at-Risk, systemic risk",
    "**Sipea2026022**"
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