## Moldova – Export Developments and Prospects

_Selected Issues Papers, April 2, 2026_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Moldova – Export Developments and Prospects](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2026/04/01/moldova-export-developments-and-prospects-575103)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2026/04/01/moldova-export-developments-and-prospects-575103/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2026/04/01/moldova-export-developments-and-prospects-575103/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2026/04/01/moldova-export-developments-and-prospects-575103/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Rossen Rozenov, Yiran Zha
- Published: April 2, 2026
- Series: Selected Issues Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229042451.018

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### Executive summary
- The paper examines various metrics of Moldova’s export performance, including diversification, export relationships duration, export quality, and complexity.
- It finds that while progress has been made on a number of dimensions, especially after the EU association agreement, challenges remain, including in achieving greater diversity and sophistication.
- Gravity analysis suggests that full EU membership could have a significant positive impact on exports overall but the effects will likely differ across sectors.

### Findings on export performance metrics
- Export diversification: Progress observed after the EU association agreement, but greater diversity remains a challenge.
- Export relationships duration: Assessed as one dimension of performance; paper reports improvements on several dimensions (specific durations not listed on the landing page).
- Export quality and complexity: Improvements noted in some measures, yet overall sophistication and complexity are still limited.
- Sectoral heterogeneity: Gains and remaining challenges vary across sectors; improvements are not uniform.

### Gravity analysis and EU membership scenarios
- Gravity analysis outcome: Full EU membership could have a significant positive impact on Moldova’s exports overall.
- Sectoral effects: The positive effects from EU membership are likely to differ across sectors rather than be evenly distributed.

### Policy implications and priorities
- Consolidate gains from the EU association agreement and pursue policies that promote:
  - Greater export diversification.
  - Higher export quality and product sophistication.
  - Sector-specific strategies recognizing heterogeneous impacts from deeper EU integration.
- Use gravity-model insights to prioritize sectors where full EU membership would yield the largest export gains.

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## Content in this bundle

- **Moldova – Export Developments and Prospects**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2026/04/01/moldova-export-developments-and-prospects-575103_