## Demographic Headwinds: The Growth Impacts of Population Ageing in Mauritius

_Selected Issues Papers, August 7, 2026_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Demographic Headwinds: The Growth Impacts of Population Ageing in Mauritius](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2026/08/05/demographic-headwinds-the-growth-impacts-of-population-ageing-in-mauritius-578595)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Athene Laws
- Published: August 7, 2026
- Series: Selected Issues Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229056342.018

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### Executive summary
- Mauritius faces severe demographic pressures from population ageing, low fertility, and out-migration.
- Using a growth decomposition framework, demographic factors shifted from supporting growth to weighing on it around 2017.
- Demographics could reduce annual GDP growth by about 2 percentage points by 2070.
- Relative to a counterfactual of unchanged demographics:
  - GDP would be nearly 50 percent lower by 2070.
  - GDP per capita would be about 28 percent lower by 2070.

### Key findings and projections
- Timing of shift: demographic factors moved from net support to net drag on growth around 2017.
- Magnitude of impact through 2070:
  - Annual GDP growth reduction: about 2 percentage points by 2070.
  - Level comparisons to unchanged-demographics counterfactual:
    - GDP: nearly 50 percent lower by 2070.
    - GDP per capita: about 28 percent lower by 2070.
- Partial mitigation: higher labor force participation among women, older workers, and youths can partly mitigate the demographic effects and improve debt dynamics, but cannot fully offset the demographic drag.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Labor market reforms are required to sustain growth and living standards.
- Broader efforts to raise productivity are necessary to preserve fiscal sustainability and offset demographic headwinds.
- Combined reforms should aim to:
  - Increase labor force participation of women, older workers, and youths.
  - Enhance productivity through structural policies and reforms.

*Athene Laws, "Demographic Headwinds: The Growth Impacts of Population Ageing in Mauritius", Selected Issues Paper No. 2026/081, August 7, 2026.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2026/08/05/demographic-headwinds-the-growth-impacts-of-population-ageing-in-mauritius-578595_