{
  "title": "Regional Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa: Exploring Different Channels",
  "publication": "Spillover Notes, August 1, 2018",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/spillover-notes/issues/2018/08/01/regional-spillovers-in-sub-saharan-africa-exploring-different-channels-46063",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/spillover-notes/issues/2018/08/01/regional-spillovers-in-sub-saharan-africa-exploring-different-channels-46063",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/spillover-notes/issues/2018/08/01/regional-spillovers-in-sub-saharan-africa-exploring-different-channels-46063/index.md",
  "summary": "After close to two decades of strong economic activity, overall growth in sub-Saharan Africa decelerated markedly in 2015–16 as the largest economies experienced negative or flat growth.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and context",
      "content": "- After close to two decades of strong economic activity, overall growth in sub-Saharan Africa decelerated markedly in 2015–16 as the largest economies experienced negative or flat growth.\n- Regional growth started recovering in 2017.\n- Central question: how trends in the economies stuck in low gear will spill over to the countries that have maintained robust growth.\n- Focus: identifying growth spillover channels most likely to transmit trends across borders."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Channels explored",
      "content": "- Trade (with emphasis on intraregional trade and regional trade spillovers).\n- Banking (banking channels assessed as less important historically but a continuing risk).\n- Financial markets (contagion across asset markets).\n- Remittances (intraregional remittance flows highlighted as an important channel).\n- Investment (corporate investment linkages).\n- Fiscal (revenue-sharing arrangements in fiscal unions, commodity-pricing policies).\n- Security (forced migration and security-related spillovers)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Intraregional trade and remittance flows are an important channel for growth spillovers.\n- Banking channels are less important but will remain a risk going forward.\n- Other important spillover channels documented: financial markets contagion, revenue-sharing arrangements in fiscal unions, commodity-pricing policies, corporate investment, and forced migration.\n- The level of interdependence among sub-Saharan countries is higher than is generally assumed.\n- Consequence: a need for additional emphasis on regional surveillance and spillover analysis, alongside traditional bilateral surveillance."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Identified priorities and implications for policy",
      "content": "- Strengthen regional surveillance and tailored spillover analysis to account for higher-than-assumed interdependence.\n- Monitor intraregional trade and remittance flows as primary conduits of growth transmission.\n- Maintain vigilance over banking-sector linkages given potential future risks.\n- Consider implications of fiscal arrangements (revenue-sharing) and commodity-pricing policies on regional stability.\n- Account for financial markets contagion and forced migration in regional risk assessments.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Staff Paper\n  - Staff Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Staff Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/spillover-notes/issues/2018/08/01/regional-spillovers-in-sub-saharan-africa-exploring-different-channels-46063"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/spillover-notes/issues/2018/08/01/regional-spillovers-in-sub-saharan-africa-exploring-different-channels-46063/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/spillover-notes/issues/2018/08/01/regional-spillovers-in-sub-saharan-africa-exploring-different-channels-46063/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/spillover-notes/issues/2018/08/01/regional-spillovers-in-sub-saharan-africa-exploring-different-channels-46063/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Francisco Arizala, Matthieu Bellon, Margaux MacDonald, Montfort Mlachila, Mustafa Yenice",
    "Published: August 1, 2018",
    "Series: Spillover Notes",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484367148.062",
    "After close to two decades of strong economic activity, overall growth in sub-Saharan Africa decelerated markedly in 2015–16 as the largest economies experienced negative or flat growth.",
    "Regional growth started recovering in 2017.",
    "Central question: how trends in the economies stuck in low gear will spill over to the countries that have maintained robust growth.",
    "Focus: identifying growth spillover channels most likely to transmit trends across borders.",
    "Trade (with emphasis on intraregional trade and regional trade spillovers).",
    "Banking (banking channels assessed as less important historically but a continuing risk).",
    "Financial markets (contagion across asset markets).",
    "Remittances (intraregional remittance flows highlighted as an important channel).",
    "Investment (corporate investment linkages).",
    "Fiscal (revenue-sharing arrangements in fiscal unions, commodity-pricing policies).",
    "Security (forced migration and security-related spillovers).",
    "Intraregional trade and remittance flows are an important channel for growth spillovers.",
    "Banking channels are less important but will remain a risk going forward.",
    "Other important spillover channels documented: financial markets contagion, revenue-sharing arrangements in fiscal unions, commodity-pricing policies, corporate investment, and forced migration.",
    "The level of interdependence among sub-Saharan countries is higher than is generally assumed.",
    "Consequence: a need for additional emphasis on regional surveillance and spillover analysis, alongside traditional bilateral surveillance.",
    "Strengthen regional surveillance and tailored spillover analysis to account for higher-than-assumed interdependence.",
    "Monitor intraregional trade and remittance flows as primary conduits of growth transmission.",
    "Maintain vigilance over banking-sector linkages given potential future risks.",
    "Consider implications of fiscal arrangements (revenue-sharing) and commodity-pricing policies on regional stability.",
    "Account for financial markets contagion and forced migration in regional risk assessments.",
    "**Staff Paper**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Staff Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/spillovernotes/spillovernote12.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/spillovernotes/spillovernote12.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/spillovernotes/spillovernote12.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/spillover-notes/issues/2018/08/01/regional-spillovers-in-sub-saharan-africa-exploring-different-channels-46063/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/spillover-notes/issues/2018/08/01/regional-spillovers-in-sub-saharan-africa-exploring-different-channels-46063/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/spillover-notes/issues/2018/08/01/regional-spillovers-in-sub-saharan-africa-exploring-different-channels-46063/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-21T19:18:28.998Z"
}