## Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

_Staff Climate Notes, August 30, 2023_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-climate-notes/issues/2023/08/24/climate-challenges-in-fragile-and-conflict-affected-states-537797)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/staff-climate-notes/issues/2023/08/24/climate-challenges-in-fragile-and-conflict-affected-states-537797/index.md)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Laura Jaramillo, Aliona Cebotari, Yoro Diallo, Rhea Gupta, Yugo Koshima, Chandana Kularatne, Jeong Dae Lee, Sidra Rehman, Kalin I Tintchev, Fang Yang
- Published: August 30, 2023
- Series: Staff Climate Notes
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400252082.066

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### Key findings
- Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) already face higher temperatures than other countries and will be more exposed to extreme heat and weather events going forward.
- In FCS, climate vulnerability and underlying fragilities—namely conflict, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, and weak capacity—exacerbate each other, amplifying the negative impact on people and economies.
- FCS suffer more severe and persistent GDP losses than other countries due to climate shocks because their underlying fragilities amplify the impact of shocks, in particular in agriculture.
- Climate shocks worsen underlying fragilities, namely conflict, creating mutually reinforcing dynamics between climate impacts and fragility.

### Analysis and implications
- Interaction effects: Climate vulnerability and fragility interact, with conflict, rainfed agriculture dependence, and weak institutional capacity increasing the negative macroeconomic and social impacts of climate shocks.
- Sectoral amplification: Agriculture, particularly rainfed agriculture, is a key channel through which climate shocks translate into larger and more persistent economic losses in FCS.
- Human consequences: Without effective responses, worse outcomes include forced displacement and migration.

### Policy recommendations
- Macro-critical adaptation policies are needed to:
  - Facilitate the immediate response to climate shocks.
  - Build climate resilience over time.
- Sizeable and sustained international support is urgent, with emphasis on:
  - Grants.
  - Concessional financing.
  - Capacity development.

### IMF response
- The IMF is stepping up support to FCS in dealing with climate challenges through:
  - Carefully tailored policy advice.
  - Financing.
  - Capacity development.

### Publication and metadata
- Title: Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
- Authors: Laura Jaramillo, Aliona Cebotari, Yoro Diallo, Rhea Gupta, Yugo Koshima, Chandana Kularatne, Jeong Dae Lee, Sidra Rehman, Kalin I Tintchev, Fang Yang
- Date: August 30, 2023
- Series: Staff Climate Note No 2023/001
- Issue: 001
- Volume: 2023
- Pages: 51
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400252082.066
- ISBN: 9798400252082
- ISSN: 2789-0600

*IMF Staff Climate Note (2023) — "Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States".*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States; August 2023**
  - [Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States; August 2023 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/staff-climate-notes/2023/english/clnea2023001.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States; August 2023 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/staff-climate-notes/2023/english/clnea2023001.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-climate-notes/issues/2023/08/24/climate-challenges-in-fragile-and-conflict-affected-states-537797_