## Sleepwalking to the Cliff Edge? A Wake-up Call for Global Climate Action

_Staff Climate Notes, October 10, 2024_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Sleepwalking to the Cliff Edge? A Wake-up Call for Global Climate Action](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-climate-notes/issues/2024/10/08/sleepwalking-to-the-cliff-edge-a-wake-up-call-for-global-climate-action-555057)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/staff-climate-notes/issues/2024/10/08/sleepwalking-to-the-cliff-edge-a-wake-up-call-for-global-climate-action-555057/index.md)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Simon Black, Ian W.H. Parry, Karlygash Zhunussova
- Published: October 10, 2024
- Series: Staff Climate Notes
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400289644.066

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### Executive summary and urgency
- Urgent action to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is needed now.
- Early next year, all countries will set new emissions targets for 2035 while revising their 2030 targets.
- Global GHGs must be cut by 25 and 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 to limit global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C respectively.
- Current targets would only cut emissions by 12 percent.
- Global ambition therefore needs to be doubled to quadrupled to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
- Further delay will lead to an “emissions cliff edge,” implying implausible cuts in GHGs and putting 1.5°C beyond reach.

### Key findings
- Aggregate mitigation implied by current national targets: cut global GHGs by 12 percent below 2019 levels by 2030.
- Required mitigation to meet temperature goals:
  - 25 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 to limit warming to 2°C.
  - 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C.
- Delay in strengthening targets increases the risk of an “emissions cliff edge,” leading to implausibly steep future cuts.

### Policy analysis and recommendations
- Countries should substantially increase near-term ambition for 2030 and set stronger 2035 targets to align with Paris temperature goals.
- Equitable alignment of country targets with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals should be illustrated and operationalized.
- Doubling to quadrupling of current global ambition is required; policy frameworks should reflect this scale-up.

### Guidance on modelling and target-setting
- Provide clear modelling guidance to set emissions targets and quantify climate mitigation policy impacts.
- Models should be used to:
  - Translate temperature goals into emissions pathways (including the 25 percent and 50 percent 2030 benchmarks relative to 2019).
  - Assess feasibility and distributional implications of rapid emissions reductions to avoid an “emissions cliff edge.”
  - Inform equitable burden-sharing approaches for aligning national targets with global temperature goals.

### Publication metadata (selected)
- Authors: Simon Black, Ian W.H. Parry, Karlygash Zhunussova
- Date: October 10, 2024
- Series: Staff Climate Note No 2024/006
- Pages: 43
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400289644.066
- ISBN: 9798400289644
- ISSN: 2789-0600
- Subjects/Keywords: Climate change; Environment; Greenhouse gas emissions; carbon pricing; cliff edge; Climate finance; climate investment; climate mitigation; Paris Agreement

*Source: "Sleepwalking to the Cliff Edge? A Wake-up Call for Global Climate Action", Staff Climate Notes 2024, 006 (2024).*

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## Content in this bundle

- **clnea2024006 — Introduction and Key Findings**
  - [clnea2024006 — Introduction and Key Findings (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/staff-climate-notes/2024/english/clnea2024006.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [clnea2024006 — Introduction and Key Findings (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/staff-climate-notes/2024/english/clnea2024006.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-climate-notes/issues/2024/10/08/sleepwalking-to-the-cliff-edge-a-wake-up-call-for-global-climate-action-555057_