## Emerging Markets in Transition: Growth Prospects and Challenges

_Staff Discussion Notes, June 12, 2014_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Emerging Markets in Transition: Growth Prospects and Challenges](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/emerging-markets-in-transition-growth-prospects-and-challenges-41588)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/emerging-markets-in-transition-growth-prospects-and-challenges-41588/index.md)
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- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/emerging-markets-in-transition-growth-prospects-and-challenges-41588/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Luis M. Cubeddu, Alexander Culiuc, Ghada Fayad, Yuan Gao, Kalpana Kochhar, Annette J Kyobe, Ceyda Oner, Roberto Perrelli, Sarah Sanya, Evridiki Tsounta, Zhongxia Zhang
- Published: June 12, 2014
- Series: Staff Discussion Notes
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498327664.006

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### Summary
- After a short-lived slowdown in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis and a swift rebound, emerging markets (EM) are now entering a period of slower growth.
- Growth is now lower than the post-crisis peak of 2010-11, as well as the rates seen in the decade before the crisis.
- The Staff Discussion Note (SDN) explores:
  - the drivers of the slowdown;
  - how changes in external conditions that supported high growth in EMs will affect them over the medium term;
  - the policy priorities needed to sustain the growth rates seen in the past decades.
- The paper differentiates EMs along various dimensions (e.g. degree of commodity dependence, trade and financial openness) to highlight the need to tailor policy priorities.

### Major findings and drivers of slowdown
- EM growth has decelerated relative to:
  - the post-crisis peak of 2010-11;
  - the rates seen in the decade before the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
- The SDN analyzes drivers including:
  - commodity dependence and commodity prices;
  - changes in external conditions (trading partner growth, global demand);
  - productivity and Total factor productivity;
  - excess demand and interest rate dynamics;
  - physical capital accumulation and investment patterns.
- Heterogeneity across EMs is emphasized: commodity-exporting EMs versus export-oriented EMs and other groupings.

### Policy priorities and recommendations
- Tailor policy priorities to country-specific characteristics such as:
  - degree of commodity dependence;
  - trade openness;
  - financial openness.
- Emphasize structural reform to boost potential growth and productivity gains, including reforms aimed at raising Total factor productivity.
- Address vulnerabilities stemming from commodity price movements and shifts in global demand.

### Differentiation and analytical approach
- The paper differentiates EMs along various dimensions to underscore heterogeneity:
  - commodity dependence;
  - trade openness;
  - financial openness.
- Keywords and subject areas guiding analysis include: Commodities, Commodity prices, Financial crises, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Prices, Production, Productivity, Total factor productivity.

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## Content in this bundle

- **_sdn1406 - Executive Summary**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/emerging-markets-in-transition-growth-prospects-and-challenges-41588_