{
  "title": "The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations",
  "publication": "Staff Discussion Notes, October 26, 2015",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/the-fiscal-consequences-of-shrinking-populations-43345",
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  "summary": "This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and key finding",
      "content": "- This Staff Discussion Note examines the fiscal challenges from population decline and aging between now and 2100.\n- Core finding: without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries, and to 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries, with potentially dire fiscal consequences.\n- Given uncertainty in population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Projections and quantitative outcomes",
      "content": "- Time horizon: between now and 2100.\n- Projected spending outcomes without reforms:\n  - 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (pensions and health spending).\n  - 16 percent of GDP by end-century in less developed countries (pensions and health spending).\n- Publication metadata and numeric identifiers:\n  - Pages: 34\n  - Volume: 2015\n  - Issue: 021\n  - Series: Staff Discussion Notes No. 2015/021\n  - Stock No: SDNEA2015021\n  - DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513544885.006\n  - ISBN: 9781513544885\n  - ISSN: 2617-6750"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and options",
      "content": "- Entitlement reform:\n  - Start now but proceed at a gradual pace.\n- Policies that affect demographics and labor markets:\n  - Implement measures that influence fertility, migration, and labor force participation as part of a broad strategy.\n- Fiscal policy and public finance improvements:\n  - Strengthen tax systems.\n  - Improve efficiency of public expenditure."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks, uncertainty, and approach",
      "content": "- The analysis highlights substantial uncertainty underlying population projections and the associated fiscal risks.\n- Recommended response: multi-pronged approach combining entitlement reform, demographic and labor-market policies, and fiscal improvements to mitigate large fiscal risks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Authors and publication",
      "content": "- By Benedict J. Clements, Kamil Dybczak, Vitor Gaspar, Sanjeev Gupta, Mauricio Soto\n- Publication date: October 26, 2015\n- Document type: Staff Discussion Note\n\nSource: \"The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations\", Staff Discussion Notes 2015, 021 (2015), Benedict J. Clements et al., DOI https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513544885.006.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- sdn1521 — Executive Summary and Key Findings\n  - sdn1521 — Executive Summary and Key Findings (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - sdn1521 — Executive Summary and Key Findings (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/the-fiscal-consequences-of-shrinking-populations-43345"
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    "Authors: Benedict J. Clements, Kamil Dybczak, Vitor Gaspar, Sanjeev Gupta, Mauricio Soto",
    "Published: October 26, 2015",
    "Series: Staff Discussion Notes",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513544885.006",
    "This Staff Discussion Note examines the fiscal challenges from population decline and aging between now and 2100.",
    "Core finding: without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries, and to 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries, with potentially dire fiscal consequences.",
    "Given uncertainty in population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required.",
    "Time horizon: between now and 2100.",
    "Projected spending outcomes without reforms:",
    "Publication metadata and numeric identifiers:",
    "Entitlement reform:",
    "Policies that affect demographics and labor markets:",
    "Fiscal policy and public finance improvements:",
    "The analysis highlights substantial uncertainty underlying population projections and the associated fiscal risks.",
    "Recommended response: multi-pronged approach combining entitlement reform, demographic and labor-market policies, and fiscal improvements to mitigate large fiscal risks.",
    "By Benedict J. Clements, Kamil Dybczak, Vitor Gaspar, Sanjeev Gupta, Mauricio Soto",
    "Publication date: October 26, 2015",
    "Document type: Staff Discussion Note",
    "**_sdn1521 — Executive Summary and Key Findings**"
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