## The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations

_Staff Discussion Notes, October 26, 2015_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/the-fiscal-consequences-of-shrinking-populations-43345)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/the-fiscal-consequences-of-shrinking-populations-43345/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/the-fiscal-consequences-of-shrinking-populations-43345/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/the-fiscal-consequences-of-shrinking-populations-43345/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Benedict J. Clements, Kamil Dybczak, Vitor Gaspar, Sanjeev Gupta, Mauricio Soto
- Published: October 26, 2015
- Series: Staff Discussion Notes
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513544885.006

---

### Summary and key finding
- This Staff Discussion Note examines the fiscal challenges from population decline and aging between now and 2100.
- Core finding: without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries, and to 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries, with potentially dire fiscal consequences.
- Given uncertainty in population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required.

### Projections and quantitative outcomes
- Time horizon: between now and 2100.
- Projected spending outcomes without reforms:
  - 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (pensions and health spending).
  - 16 percent of GDP by end-century in less developed countries (pensions and health spending).
- Publication metadata and numeric identifiers:
  - Pages: 34
  - Volume: 2015
  - Issue: 021
  - Series: Staff Discussion Notes No. 2015/021
  - Stock No: SDNEA2015021
  - DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513544885.006
  - ISBN: 9781513544885
  - ISSN: 2617-6750

### Policy recommendations and options
- Entitlement reform:
  - Start now but proceed at a gradual pace.
- Policies that affect demographics and labor markets:
  - Implement measures that influence fertility, migration, and labor force participation as part of a broad strategy.
- Fiscal policy and public finance improvements:
  - Strengthen tax systems.
  - Improve efficiency of public expenditure.

### Risks, uncertainty, and approach
- The analysis highlights substantial uncertainty underlying population projections and the associated fiscal risks.
- Recommended response: multi-pronged approach combining entitlement reform, demographic and labor-market policies, and fiscal improvements to mitigate large fiscal risks.

### Authors and publication
- By Benedict J. Clements, Kamil Dybczak, Vitor Gaspar, Sanjeev Gupta, Mauricio Soto
- Publication date: October 26, 2015
- Document type: Staff Discussion Note

*Source: "The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations", Staff Discussion Notes 2015, 021 (2015), Benedict J. Clements et al., DOI https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513544885.006.*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **_sdn1521 — Executive Summary and Key Findings**
  - [_sdn1521 — Executive Summary and Key Findings (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2015/_sdn1521.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [_sdn1521 — Executive Summary and Key Findings (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2015/_sdn1521.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/the-fiscal-consequences-of-shrinking-populations-43345_