{
  "title": "Kenya: Technical Assistance Report-Improving the Business Surveys and the Nowcasting Framework at the Central Bank of Kenya",
  "publication": "Technical Assistance Reports, August 7, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/technical-assistance-reports/issues/2024/08/07/kenya-technical-assistance-report-improving-the-business-surveys-and-the-nowcasting-552921",
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  "summary": "At the request of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), a technical assistance (TA) mission from the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) department visited Nairobi, Kenya, from April 17–21, 2023, to help improve the CBK’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS).",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Mission overview and objectives",
      "content": "- TA mission from the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) department visited Nairobi, Kenya, from April 17–21, 2023.\n- Main objectives:\n  - Improve the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK)’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS).\n  - Improve CBK’s business surveys.\n  - Strengthen the nowcasting framework for GDP and CPI inflation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Technical work and tools developed",
      "content": "- Interactive technical sessions were held with CBK staff to provide detailed recommendations on survey design and integration into policy processes.\n- Software and methodological outputs:\n  - EViews programs for efficient survey data management.\n  - Conversion of qualitative survey data to quantitative data using the Balance of Opinion approach.\n  - Fixes and enhancements to the EViews-based nowcasting platform.\n  - Tools for automated model evaluation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Findings on CBK business surveys",
      "content": "- Key observations:\n  - Survey design and timing can be better aligned to inform nowcasts and projections.\n  - Lack of a firm registry limits ability to track respondents and ensure sample representativeness.\n  - Survey data pipelines and historical consolidation are not fully automated or consolidated into time series."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Recommendations — business surveys",
      "content": "- Streamline survey questions and timing to better inform nowcasts and projections.\n- Create a firm registry to track survey respondents and ensure sample representativeness.\n- Automate the survey data pipeline and consolidate historical results into a time series."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Findings on the nowcasting framework",
      "content": "- The existing nowcasting platform required fixes and enhancements to support reliable real-time forecasting for GDP and CPI inflation.\n- There is scope to better incorporate survey-derived quantitative indicators and to evaluate models systematically."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Recommendations — nowcasting framework",
      "content": "- Integrate quantified survey results into nowcasting models.\n- Continue refining the nowcasting framework at a disaggregated level.\n- Expand the database of leading indicators and assess new models using the forecast evaluation framework."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Publication metadata and identifiers",
      "content": "- Publication date: August 7, 2024\n- Mission dates: April 17–21, 2023\n- Pages: 72\n- Series: Technical Assistance Report No. 2024/065\n- Issue: 065\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400285394.019\n- ISBN: 9798400285394\n- ISSN: 3005-4575\n\nInternational Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department \"Kenya: Technical Assistance Report-Improving the Business Surveys and the Nowcasting Framework at the Central Bank of Kenya\", Technical Assistance Reports 2024, 065 (2024).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- tarea2024065-print-pdf\n  - tarea2024065-print-pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - tarea2024065-print-pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/technical-assistance-reports/issues/2024/08/07/kenya-technical-assistance-report-improving-the-business-surveys-and-the-nowcasting-552921"
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    "Published: August 7, 2024",
    "Series: Technical Assistance Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400285394.019",
    "TA mission from the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) department visited Nairobi, Kenya, from April 17–21, 2023.",
    "Main objectives:",
    "Interactive technical sessions were held with CBK staff to provide detailed recommendations on survey design and integration into policy processes.",
    "Software and methodological outputs:",
    "Key observations:",
    "Streamline survey questions and timing to better inform nowcasts and projections.",
    "Create a firm registry to track survey respondents and ensure sample representativeness.",
    "Automate the survey data pipeline and consolidate historical results into a time series.",
    "The existing nowcasting platform required fixes and enhancements to support reliable real-time forecasting for GDP and CPI inflation.",
    "There is scope to better incorporate survey-derived quantitative indicators and to evaluate models systematically.",
    "Integrate quantified survey results into nowcasting models.",
    "Continue refining the nowcasting framework at a disaggregated level.",
    "Expand the database of leading indicators and assess new models using the forecast evaluation framework.",
    "Publication date: August 7, 2024",
    "Mission dates: April 17–21, 2023",
    "Pages: 72",
    "Series: Technical Assistance Report No. 2024/065",
    "Issue: 065",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400285394.019",
    "ISBN: 9798400285394",
    "ISSN: 3005-4575",
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