## Chile: Technical Assistance Report-Tax Revenue Projections

_Technical Assistance Reports, May 9, 2025_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Chile: Technical Assistance Report-Tax Revenue Projections](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/technical-assistance-reports/issues/2025/05/09/chile-technical-assistance-report-tax-revenue-projections-566825)

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: May 9, 2025
- Series: Technical Assistance Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229008815.019

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### Overview and context
- Accuracy in fiscal revenue projections is described as a fundamental pillar of the budgetary process in Chile.
- In contexts without economic shocks, differences between tax revenue estimates and actual collections were minimal.
- The pandemic and numerous temporary tax policy measures introduced significant uncertainty that has complicated tax revenue projections.
- Identifying sources of gaps in tax revenue projections and communicating them transparently is emphasized as crucial.

### Key findings
- Historical projection performance:
  - In stable (no economic shock) contexts, deviations between estimates and collections were minimal.
  - The pandemic period saw large deviations driven by economic shocks and temporary tax measures.
- Main drivers of projection gaps:
  - Temporary tax policy measures.
  - Economic shocks (explicitly the pandemic).
  - Use of proxy variables that may not accurately reflect the underlying tax bases.
  - Insufficient assessment of discretionary changes in tax policy and administration.
  - Weaknesses in institutional frameworks and transparency around projection methodologies.

### Core recommendations
- Improve proxy variable selection:
  - Use proxy variables that most accurately reflect the tax bases being estimated.
- Reassess discretionary changes:
  - Critically and prudently assess and revisit the impact of discretionary changes, both in tax policy and administration.
- Strengthen institutional framework and transparency:
  - Promote clear and consistent methodologies.
  - Ensure continuity and regular updates of the tax revenue projection process.
  - Improve communication of sources of projection gaps to stakeholders.

### Keywords and scope
- Keywords: budget management, corporate income tax, revenue projections, Tax collection, VAT.
- Language: [This report is only available in Spanish]

### Publication metadata and key statistics
- Pages: 57
- Volume: 2025
- Issue: 053
- Series: Technical Assistance Report No. 2025/053
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229008815.019
- Stock No: TAREA2025053
- ISBN: 9798229008815
- ISSN: 3005-4575

*International Monetary Fund. Chile: Technical Assistance Report-Tax Revenue Projections (Technical Assistance Reports 2025, 053).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/technical-assistance-reports/issues/2025/05/09/chile-technical-assistance-report-tax-revenue-projections-566825_