{
  "title": "A Toolkit to Assess the Consistency Between Real Sector and Financial Sector Forecasts",
  "publication": "Technical Notes and Manuals, June 5, 2017",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/tnm/issues/2017/06/06/a-toolkit-to-assess-the-consistency-between-real-sector-and-financial-sector-forecasts-44962",
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  "summary": "e develop a toolkit to assess the consistency between real sector and financial sector forecasts. The toolkit draws upon empirical regularities on real sector and financial sector outcomes for 182 economies from 1980 to 2015.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Toolkit overview",
      "content": "- Objective: Develop a toolkit to assess the consistency between real sector and financial sector forecasts.\n- Data coverage: 182 economies from 1980 to 2015.\n- Authors: Sophia Chen, Paola Ganum, Pau Rabanal.\n- Publication date: June 5, 2017.\n- Publication series and identifiers:\n  - Technical Notes and Manuals No. 2017/009\n  - Issue: 009\n  - Volume: 2017\n  - Pages: 30\n  - DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484302798.005\n  - ISBN: 9781484302798\n  - ISSN: 2075-8669"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key empirical findings",
      "content": "- Credit growth and real sector performance:\n  - Credit growth is positively correlated with real sector performance.\n  - The positive correlation is particularly pronounced when credit growth is unusually high or low.\n- Credit growth and inflation:\n  - The relationship between credit growth and inflation is weak.\n- Robustness across country groups:\n  - Findings hold for advanced economies, emerging markets, and low-income countries."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Complementary indicators and null results",
      "content": "- Combining credit growth with other variables:\n  - Including house prices and the output gap alongside credit growth helps to understand real sector outcomes.\n- Financial account balance:\n  - Including the financial account balance does not make a difference for explaining real sector outcomes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords (as provided)",
      "content": "- Subject: Credit, Economic sectors, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial markets, Financial sector, Housing prices, Money, Output gap, Prices, Production\n- Keywords: asset price fluctuation, Comovement, Consistency, Credit, credit condition, credit growth, Emerging and frontier financial markets, equity price appreciation, Financial Forecasts, Financial sector, GDP growth, Global, house price growth, Housing prices, Macroeconomic Forecasts, Output gap, price, real GDP, TNM\n\nA Toolkit to Assess the Consistency Between Real Sector and Financial Sector Forecasts — IMF (June 5, 2017).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Executive Summary\n  - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/tnm/issues/2017/06/06/a-toolkit-to-assess-the-consistency-between-real-sector-and-financial-sector-forecasts-44962"
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    "Authors: Sophia Chen, Paola Ganum, Pau Rabanal",
    "Published: June 5, 2017",
    "Series: Technical Notes and Manuals",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484302798.005",
    "Objective: Develop a toolkit to assess the consistency between real sector and financial sector forecasts.",
    "Data coverage: 182 economies from 1980 to 2015.",
    "Authors: Sophia Chen, Paola Ganum, Pau Rabanal.",
    "Publication date: June 5, 2017.",
    "Publication series and identifiers:",
    "Credit growth and real sector performance:",
    "Credit growth and inflation:",
    "Robustness across country groups:",
    "Combining credit growth with other variables:",
    "Financial account balance:",
    "Subject: Credit, Economic sectors, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial markets, Financial sector, Housing prices, Money, Output gap, Prices, Production",
    "Keywords: asset price fluctuation, Comovement, Consistency, Credit, credit condition, credit growth, Emerging and frontier financial markets, equity price appreciation, Financial Forecasts, Financial sector, GDP growth, Global, house price growth, Housing prices, Macroeconomic Forecasts, Output gap, price, real GDP, TNM",
    "**Executive Summary**"
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