{
  "title": "IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update -- Contractionary Forces Receding But Weak Recovery Ahead, July 2009",
  "publication": "World Economic Outlook, July 8, 2009",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/contractionary-forces-receding-but-weak-recovery-ahead",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/contractionary-forces-receding-but-weak-recovery-ahead",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/contractionary-forces-receding-but-weak-recovery-ahead/index.md",
  "summary": "The global economy is beginning to pull out of a recession unprecedented in the post-World War II era, but stabilization is uneven and the recovery is expected to be sluggish.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Global overview and headline projections",
      "content": "- The global economy is beginning to pull out of a recession unprecedented in the post–World War II era, but stabilization is uneven and the recovery is expected to be sluggish.\n- Economic growth during 2009–10 is now projected to be about ½ percentage points higher than projected in the April 2009 World Economic Outlook (WEO), reaching 2.5 percent in 2010.\n- Global activity is forecast to contract by -1.4 percent in 2009 and to expand by 2.5 percent in 2010; on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis, real GDP growth is projected at 2.9 percent in 2010.\n- Key summary figures from the WEO Table 1.1 (percent change, unless otherwise noted):\n  - World output: 2007 = 5.1; 2008 = 3.1; 2009 = -1.4; 2010 = 2.5; Difference from April 2009 WEO Projections: -0.1 (2008), 0.6 (2010)\n  - Advanced economies: 2007 = 2.7; 2008 = 0.8; 2009 = -3.8; 2010 = 0.6\n  - United States: 2007 = 2.0; 2008 = 1.1; 2009 = -2.6; 2010 = -0.8\n  - Emerging and developing economies: 2007 = 8.3; 2008 = 6.0; 2009 = 3.3\n  - China: 2007 = 13.0; 2008 = 9.0; 2009 = 7.5; 2010 = 8.5\n  - India: 2007 = 9.4; 2008 = 7.3; 2009 = 6.5; 2010 = 4.8\n  - World trade volume (goods and services): 2007 = 7.2; 2008 = -12.2; 2009 = -1.2\n  - Oil (U.S. dollars): 2008 average price per barrel = $97.03; assumed price based on future markets = $60.50 in 2009 and $74.50 in 2010\n- Improvements in financial conditions have outpaced expectations, largely owing to public intervention; high-frequency data point to a return to modest global growth after a weak Q1 2009."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Drivers, balance of forces, and near-term outlook",
      "content": "- Downward drags diminishing: financial shock, sharp fall of global trade, and heightened uncertainty are gradually losing intensity.\n- Supportive forces remain weak: many housing markets have yet to bottom out; financial markets remain impaired; bank balance sheets need cleaning and institutions restructuring.\n- Temporary supports: cuts in policy interest rates, ample liquidity provision, credit easing, public guarantees, and bank recapitalization have reduced systemic failure concerns and supported intermediation.\n- Commodity developments: commodity prices have rebounded ahead of the recovery; oil prices have responded to perceptions of tighter market dynamics and OPEC discipline; forward markets project oil at $74.50 for 2010.\n- Outlook summary:\n  - Activity and credit growth likely to remain subdued in many economies.\n  - Expansionary macroeconomic policies and inventory adjustment are supporting global activity but are temporary forces.\n  - Advanced economies as a group projected not to show a sustained pickup until the second half of 2010."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Regional and country highlights",
      "content": "- United States:\n  - High-frequency indicators point to a diminishing rate of deterioration in the labor and housing markets; industrial production may be close to bottoming out; inventory cycle turning.\n  - Stabilization in H2 2009 and gradual recovery emerging in 2010.\n- Japan:\n  - Signs of output stabilizing after a weak Q1 2009; improvement supported by consumer confidence, inventory adjustment, aggressive fiscal policies, and strong performance in other Asian economies.\n- Euro area:\n  - Consumer and business surveys recovering, but real activity shows few signs of stabilization; activity projected to strengthen more slowly; heavy dependence on a still-ailing banking sector.\n- Emerging and developing economies:\n  - Regain growth momentum in H2 2009 with regional differences.\n  - Emerging Asia projections revised to 5.5 percent in 2009 and 7.0 percent in 2010, reflecting improved prospects in China and India and faster-than-expected turnaround in capital flows.\n  - Latin America growth projections lowered by 1.1 percentage points in 2009 but revised up by 0.7 percentage points in 2010 due to rising commodity prices.\n  - Central and eastern Europe: projections revised downward by 1.3 percentage points in 2009 and upward by 0.2 percentage points in 2010.\n  - CIS: projections revised downward by 0.7 percentage points in 2009 and upward by 0.8 percentage points in 2010; Russia: 2008 = 8.1; 2009 = 5.6; 2010 = -6.5 (table entries reflect regional heterogeneity).\n  - Emerging Africa and the Middle East: 2009 projections revised downward by 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively; 2010 broadly unchanged.\n  - Low-income countries face challenges as official aid has fallen and vulnerability to commodity swings is high."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Inflation and labor market",
      "content": "- Inflation dynamics:\n  - Year-over-year inflation moderated to 1.7 percent in May 2009, down from around 6 percent one year earlier.\n  - In advanced economies, headline inflation fell below zero percent in May 2009; core inflation around 1½ percent.\n  - Emerging markets: headline and core inflation fell below 4½ percent and to around 1 percent in May 2009, respectively.\n  - Global inflation expected to remain subdued through 2010 due to significant excess capacity; inflation rates marked up by about ½ percentage point for 2010 from the April WEO forecast.\n- Labor market:\n  - Growth in 2010 would still fall short of potential until late in the year, implying continuing increases in unemployment.\n  - Unemployment rates will reach double digits in some countries, weighing on wages and household spending."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks to the outlook",
      "content": "- Risks remain tilted to the downside though tail risks have diminished.\n- Key downside risks:\n  - Rising unemployment and renewed loss of confidence in financial sector stability could pressure asset prices and trigger deflation.\n  - Questions about public debt sustainability in some countries could raise bond yields and impede housing market recovery.\n  - Falling house prices could undermine bank capital bases.\n  - Emerging economies vulnerable to intensified financial stress with potential feedback effects.\n  - Policy responses that restrict trade/finance or roll back reforms could harm confidence and productivity.\n- Upside risks:\n  - Larger-than-expected drop in risk aversion and stronger internal demand dynamics in some major emerging economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy priorities and recommendations",
      "content": "- Overarching priority:\n  - Restoring financial sector health remains the primary policy priority.\n- Financial policy:\n  - Continue efforts to restore bank solvency, clean bank balance sheets, and restructure or resolve institutions where necessary.\n  - Achieve credible recapitalization together with appropriate restructuring or resolution; implement measures forcefully and transparently to rebuild confidence and reaccelerate credit growth.\n  - Ensure short-term support measures are consistent with long-term objectives to strengthen incentives and market discipline.\n- Monetary policy:\n  - Monetary policy should remain supportive until growth resumes and deflationary risks dissipate.\n  - Exploit remaining room to cut policy rates; continue exploring nonconventional measures to support credit flows.\n  - Develop and communicate exit strategies for withdrawing exceptional conventional and nonconventional monetary support; develop tools to facilitate unwinding expanded central bank balance sheets.\n- Fiscal policy:\n  - Fiscal policy should stay supportive through 2010, with plans to rebuild fiscal balances and ensure sustainable debt paths once growth is reestablished.\n  - Strengthen medium-run fiscal policy frameworks, fiscal rules, and institutions; reduce buildup of future pension and health liabilities.\n  - Consider commitments to raise statutory retirement ages in line with life expectancies and to slow health services costs through efficiency improvements.\n- Emerging economies:\n  - Balance support for demand with risks of capital outflows and fiscal sustainability.\n  - Where underlying inflationary pressures are easing, central banks should reduce policy rates cautiously to avoid disorderly exchange rate adjustments and large capital outflows.\n  - Assess banking system soundness, especially where corporate sectors struggle due to falling export revenues and loss of external financing.\n- Rebalancing global demand and medium-run growth:\n  - Shift from temporary public demand support to policies that rebuild potential output and reallocate resources.\n  - Rebalancing implies private demand must increase as public demand recedes; countries with large current account deficits (e.g., the United States) may need shifts toward external demand, while surplus countries must support stronger domestic demand.\n  - Success in rebuilding financial sectors in advanced economies and supporting private consumption in surplus emerging economies will be critical to recovery beyond 2010.\n\nIMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, July 2009.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 0709a\n  - 0709a (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 0709a (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 世界经济展望最新预测: 收缩力量在减退，但今后的复苏将是疲弱的;  2009年7月8日\n  - 世界经济展望最新预测: 收缩力量在减退，但今后的复苏将是疲弱的;  2009年7月8日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 世界经济展望最新预测: 收缩力量在减退，但今后的复苏将是疲弱的;  2009年7月8日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Perspectives de l'économie mondiale, Mise a jour des principales projections, le 8 juillet 2009\n  - Perspectives de l'économie mondiale, Mise a jour des principales projections, le 8 juillet 2009 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Perspectives de l'économie mondiale, Mise a jour des principales projections, le 8 juillet 2009 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 世界経済見通し改訂見通し: 景気減速の勢いは鈍化を見せているものの、今後の回復は緩慢: 2009年7月8日\n  - 世界経済見通し改訂見通し: 景気減速の勢いは鈍化を見せているものの、今後の回復は緩慢: 2009年7月8日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 世界経済見通し改訂見通し: 景気減速の勢いは鈍化を見せているものの、今後の回復は緩慢: 2009年7月8日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0709pdf\n  - 0709pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 0709pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективы развития мировой экономики, Бюллетень основных прогнозов ПРМЭ, 8 июля 2009 года\n  - Перспективы развития мировой экономики, Бюллетень основных прогнозов ПРМЭ, 8 июля 2009 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Перспективы развития мировой экономики, Бюллетень основных прогнозов ПРМЭ, 8 июля 2009 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0709s\n  - 0709s (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 0709s (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- fig1\n  - fig1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - fig1 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\"}\n- fig2\n  - fig2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - fig2 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\"}\n- fig3\n  - fig3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - fig3 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\"}\n- dataset overview\n  - dataset overview (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - dataset overview (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\"}\n- fig5\n  - fig5 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - fig5 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- April 2009\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Webcast of a Press Briefing on the WEO Update and the GFSR Market Update\n- https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.asp?eventID=1545\n- World Economic Outlook, April 2009\n- Reports\n- Databases\n- Research at the IMF\n- World Economic Outlook Database\n- discussion forum\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo\n- Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr\n- Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm\n- Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo\n- Asia and Pacific\n- Europe\n- Middle East and Central Asia\n- Sub-Saharan Africa\n- Western Hemisphere\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb\n- Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development\n- More Publications\n- July 2009 Global Financial Stability Report Market Update\n- The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/contractionary-forces-receding-but-weak-recovery-ahead"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/contractionary-forces-receding-but-weak-recovery-ahead/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/contractionary-forces-receding-but-weak-recovery-ahead/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/contractionary-forces-receding-but-weak-recovery-ahead/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: July 8, 2009",
    "Series: World Economic Outlook",
    "The global economy is beginning to pull out of a recession unprecedented in the post–World War II era, but stabilization is uneven and the recovery is expected to be sluggish.",
    "Economic growth during 2009–10 is now projected to be about ½ percentage points higher than projected in the April 2009 World Economic Outlook (WEO), reaching 2.5 percent in 2010.",
    "Global activity is forecast to contract by -1.4 percent in 2009 and to expand by 2.5 percent in 2010; on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis, real GDP growth is projected at 2.9 percent in 2010.",
    "Key summary figures from the WEO Table 1.1 (percent change, unless otherwise noted):",
    "Improvements in financial conditions have outpaced expectations, largely owing to public intervention; high-frequency data point to a return to modest global growth after a weak Q1 2009.",
    "Downward drags diminishing: financial shock, sharp fall of global trade, and heightened uncertainty are gradually losing intensity.",
    "Supportive forces remain weak: many housing markets have yet to bottom out; financial markets remain impaired; bank balance sheets need cleaning and institutions restructuring.",
    "Temporary supports: cuts in policy interest rates, ample liquidity provision, credit easing, public guarantees, and bank recapitalization have reduced systemic failure concerns and supported intermediation.",
    "Commodity developments: commodity prices have rebounded ahead of the recovery; oil prices have responded to perceptions of tighter market dynamics and OPEC discipline; forward markets project oil at $74.50 for 2010.",
    "Outlook summary:",
    "United States:",
    "Japan:",
    "Euro area:",
    "Emerging and developing economies:",
    "Inflation dynamics:",
    "Labor market:",
    "Risks remain tilted to the downside though tail risks have diminished.",
    "Key downside risks:",
    "Upside risks:",
    "Overarching priority:",
    "Financial policy:",
    "Monetary policy:",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "Emerging economies:",
    "Rebalancing global demand and medium-run growth:",
    "**0709a**",
    "**世界经济展望最新预测: 收缩力量在减退，但今后的复苏将是疲弱的;  2009年7月8日**",
    "**Perspectives de l'économie mondiale, Mise a jour des principales projections, le 8 juillet 2009**",
    "**世界経済見通し改訂見通し: 景気減速の勢いは鈍化を見せているものの、今後の回復は緩慢: 2009年7月8日**",
    "**_0709pdf**",
    "**Перспективы развития мировой экономики, Бюллетень основных прогнозов ПРМЭ, 8 июля 2009 года**",
    "**0709s**",
    "**fig_1**",
    "**fig_2**",
    "**fig_3**",
    "**dataset overview**",
    "**fig_5**",
    "[April 2009](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/index.aspx)",
    "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)",
    "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)",
    "[Webcast of a Press Briefing on the WEO Update and the GFSR Market Update](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.asp?eventID=1540)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.asp?eventID=1545](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.asp?eventID=1545)",
    "[World Economic Outlook, April 2009](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/index.htm)",
    "[Reports](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)",
    "[Databases](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28)",
    "[Research at the IMF](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/res/index.htm)",
    "[World Economic Outlook Database](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/index.aspx)",
    "[discussion forum](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/forum/index.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo)",
    "[Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr)",
    "[Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm)",
    "[Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo)",
    "[Asia and Pacific](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/apac)",
    "[Europe](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/eu)",
    "[Middle East and Central Asia](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca)",
    "[Sub-Saharan Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa)",
    "[Western Hemisphere](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/wh)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb)",
    "[Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb/issues/2025/09/24/annual-report-2025)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development)",
    "[More Publications](https://www.imf.org/en/publications)",
    "[July 2009 Global Financial Stability Report Market Update](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fmu/eng/2009/02/index.htm)",
    "[The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=23039.0)"
  ],
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    {
      "title": "世界経済見通し改訂見通し: 景気減速の勢いは鈍化を見せているものの、今後の回復は緩慢: 2009年7月8日",
      "role": "document",
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    {
      "title": "_0709pdf",
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    {
      "title": "Перспективы развития мировой экономики, Бюллетень основных прогнозов ПРМЭ, 8 июля 2009 года",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/russian/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/02/pdf/0709r.pdf",
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    {
      "title": "0709s",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/spanish/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/02/pdf/0709s.pdf",
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    {
      "title": "fig_1",
      "role": "dataset",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/data/fig_1.csv",
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