## IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) — Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth, October 2012 — Table of Contents

_World Economic Outlook, October 9, 2012_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: October 9, 2012
- Series: World Economic Outlook

---

### Global outlook and risks (Chapter 1 and Executive Summary)
- The recovery "has suffered new setbacks, and uncertainty weighs heavily on the outlook."
- Key risks identified: "the ongoing euro area crisis" and the "fiscal cliff" facing U.S. policymakers.
- Policies in the major advanced economies "have not rebuilt confidence in medium-term prospects."
- Tail risks include: viability of the euro area and major U.S. fiscal policy mistakes.
- WEO forecast: "only a gradual strengthening of activity from the relatively disappointing pace of early 2012."
- Boxes of focus: short-term fiscal multipliers; implications of high public debt in advanced economies; how uncertainty affects economic performance; unconventional energy in the United States; food supply crunch and vulnerability.
- Figures and indicators covered: Global Indicators; Euro Area Developments; Fiscal Policies; Monetary Policies; Emerging Market Conditions; Global Inflation; Risks to the Global Outlook; Upside and Downside Scenarios; Lower Global Growth Scenario; Crisis Comparisons; Global Imbalances; Euro Area Imbalances; IMF Commodity Price Index; Oil Prices and Volatility.

### Country and regional perspectives (Chapter 2)
- Global growth "slowed again during the second quarter of 2012 after rebounding during the first."
- The slowing "was observed in all regions," pointing to important common factors and spillovers from large country-specific or regional shocks.
- Principal shocks and factors:
  - Ratcheting up of financial stress in the euro area periphery in the second quarter of 2012.
  - Domestic demand slowdown in many economies in Asia and Latin America (notably Brazil, China, and India), reflecting both weaker external demand from Europe and domestic factors.
  - Deceleration of growth in the United States.
- Covered regional and country group indicators: Selected European Economies; Selected Advanced Economies; Selected Asian Economies; Selected Western Hemisphere Economies; Commonwealth of Independent States; Selected Middle East and North African Economies; Selected Sub-Saharan African Economies.
- Analytical products: Revisions to WEO Growth Projections for 2012 and 2013; Effects of Lower Potential Growth; Weekly Equity and Bond Fund Flows during Financial Stress in Advanced Economies; Revisions to 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts by region; Financing Conditions for Euro Area Periphery Economies and the United States, 2007-12; Changes in Stress Indicators, 2007–12; Global Weekly Capital Flows; Global Fund Flows during Stress; Composition of Capital Flows during Stress; Global Asset Price Performance around Stress Episodes; Global Trade Linkages with Advanced Economies and China.

### Public debt overhangs and policy priorities (Chapter 3)
- Historical scope: analyzes "100 years of history of dealing with public debt overhangs."
- Key conclusion: "the first priority today must be to complement fiscal consolidation with measures to support growth, especially, very accommodative monetary policy and structural reforms."
- Tabulated and case-study focus:
  - Differentiating episodes by the change in the debt-to-GDP ratio.
  - Public Debt in Advanced Economies.
  - Debt-to-GDP dynamics after public debt reaches 100 percent of GDP.
  - Country case studies: United Kingdom (deflation after World War I); United States (debt dynamics after World War II); Japan (Lost Decade); Italy; Belgium; Canada (fiscal consolidation after 1985).
  - Decomposition of debt dynamics in case study countries; contribution to GDP from exports.
- Policy implication emphasized: fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by growth-supporting policies (monetary accommodation and structural reforms).

### Resilience of emerging market and developing economies (Chapter 4)
- Central question: "Will It Last?" — whether the strong performance of many emerging market and developing economies will continue.
- Reasons for optimism: "improved policymaking and greater 'policy space'—room to respond to shocks without undermining sustainability."
- Factors discussed:
  - Activity slowed in some emerging market and developing economies because of policy tightening in response to capacity constraints, weaker demand from advanced economies, and country-specific factors.
  - Policy improvements have "raised these economies' resilience to shocks."
- Empirical and thematic analyses:
  - Labor market trends and Okun’s Law (Diverging Global Labor Market Trends, 2007–11; Distribution of Okun’s Law Coefficients and Employment Responsiveness, 2007–11).
  - Composition of China's growth and imports; increasing exports to China; impact of an investment slowdown in China.
  - Resilience examples: Kenya and Tanzania.
  - Analyses of what ends expansions and recoveries; AR(1) median coefficients and robustness checks; determinants of Okun coefficients and employment responsiveness.
  - Quantitative assessments: effects of shocks, policies, and structural characteristics on expansion duration and speed of recovery; frequency of various types of domestic and external shocks; policy frameworks and policy space; contribution of shocks, policies, and structure to the length of expansions.

### Data, assumptions, and supporting materials (Annex and Statistical Appendix)
- Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, September 2012.
- Statistical Appendix contents: Text (Download PDF); Assumptions; What's New; Data and Conventions; Classification of Countries; General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification.
- Classification tables include: Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2011; Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup; Table C. European Union; Table D. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings; Table E. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries.
- Lists of data tables (parts A and B) covering Output, Inflation, Financial Policies, Foreign Trade, Current Account Transactions, Balance of Payments and External Financing, Flow of Funds, External Debt and Debt Service, Medium–Term Baseline Scenario.

*IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), October 2012 — Table of Contents*

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---

## References

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