{ "title": "IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), Financial Crises: Causes and Indicators, May 1998--Contents", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, May 1, 1998", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-crises-causes-and-indicators", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-crises-causes-and-indicators", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-crises-causes-and-indicators/index.md", "summary": "The May 1998 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Table of Contents with links to the full text in PDF format", "sections": [ { "heading": "Front matter and general items", "content": "- World Economic Outlook\n- Transcript of a Press Conference on the World Economic Outlook April 13, 1998\n- Ordering Information\n- Other issues of the World Economic Outlook\n- WEO Selected Topics, 1995 - present\n- Research at the IMF\n- Email notification sign-up: Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Financial Crises: Causes and Indicators — May 1998\n- Reports and Related Links: English — Read More\n- Disclaimer\n- Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view pdf files.\n- Tips for using PDF files" }, { "heading": "Chapter I — Global Economic Prospects and Policy Considerations (198k pdf file)", "content": "- Chapter title: Global Economic Prospects and Policy Considerations\n- Sections listed:\n - The Asian Crisis\n - Advanced Economies\n - Developing Countries\n - Countries in Transition\n - Appendix: Countdown to EMU--Progress Toward Convergence and Challenges Remaining\n- Boxes:\n - 1. The Role of Hedge Funds in Financial Markets\n - 2. Moral Hazard and IMF Lending\n - 3. International Monetary System: Measures to Reduce the Risk of Crises\n- Table:\n - European Union: Convergence Indicators\n- Figures:\n - World Output and Inflation\n - Nominal and Real Interest Rates in the Prospective Euro Area\n - European Union: Average Inflation and General Government Balance\n - 4. European Union: General Government Budget Positions" }, { "heading": "Chapter II — Global Repercussions of the Asian Crisis and Other Issues in the Current Conjuncture (314k pdf file)", "content": "- Chapter title: Global Repercussions of the Asian Crisis and Other Issues in the Current Conjuncture\n- Sections listed:\n - The Global Growth Outlook\n - Prospects for Global Inflation (or Deflation)\n - Implications of Recent Currency Realignments for Countries' International Competitiveness\n - Prospects for Global Flows of Funds and Current Account Balances\n - Outlook for Japan\n - Emerging Market Countries: Selected Issues\n- Box:\n - Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies\n- Tables:\n - Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections\n - Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates\n - Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt\n - 5. Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices\n - 6. Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices\n - 7. Recent Exchange Rate Movements on Bilateral and Multilateral Bases\n - 8. Developing Countries, Countries in Transition, and Newly Industrialized Economies: Net Capital Flows\n - 9. Gross Private Financing to Emerging Market Economies\n - 10. Selected Economies: Current Account Positions\n - 11. Selected Latin American Economies: Macroeconomic Indicators\n - 12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Economic Indicators\n - Selected Asian Economies: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates and Equity Prices\n - Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps\n - Major Industrial Countries: Indices of Monetary Conditions\n - Selected European Union Countries and the United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence\n - Selected European Countries: Real Total Domestic Demand\n - Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates\n - Selected Advanced Economies: Inflation\n - Advanced Economies: Inflation and Commodity Prices\n - 13. Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates\n - 14. Japanese Banking Sector: Selected Indicators\n - 15. ASEAN-4 plus Korea: Aggregate Trade Balance\n - 16. Paths of Output Gaps in Cases of Financial Sector Shocks\n - 17. Selected Latin American Countries: Short-Term Interest Rates and Exchange Rates\n - 18. Egypt: Basic Macroeconomic Data" }, { "heading": "Chapter III — The Business Cycle, International Linkages, and Exchange Rates (182k pdf file)", "content": "- Chapter title: The Business Cycle, International Linkages, and Exchange Rates\n- Sections listed:\n - Business Cycles\n - The Relationship Between Business Cycles and Exchange Rates\n - Implications for Policy and Surveillance\n - Evaluating Exchange Rates\n- Figures and numbered items:\n - Major Industrial Countries: Business Cycle Indicators\n - 19.\n - 20. Major Industrial Countries: Unemployment, Inflation, and Output Gaps\n - 21. Business Cycles and Output Gaps\n - 22. Three Major Industrial Countries: Real Effective Exchange Rates and Selected Relative Cyclical Variables\n - 23. Selected Major Industrial Countries: Temporary Dollar Appreciation Scenario\n - 24. Three Major Industrial Countries: Variability in Effective Exchange Rates" }, { "heading": "Chapter IV — Financial Crises: Characteristics and Indicators of Vulnerability (215k pdf file)", "content": "- Chapter title: Financial Crises: Characteristics and Indicators of Vulnerability\n- Sections listed:\n - Types of Crises\n - Identifying Crises\n - Origins of Currency and Banking Crises\n - Currency Crises and Contagion\n - Indicators of Vulnerability\n - Stylized Behavior of Macroeconomic Variables Before and After Crises\n - Early Warning Signals of Vulnerability to Currency Crises\n - Resolving Banking Sector Problems\n - Effective Banking Prudential Regulations and Requirements\n - The Current Account and External Sustainability\n - Selected Crises: Costs of Restructuring Financial Sectors and Nonperforming Loans\n - Costs of Crises in Lost Output Relative to Trend\n - Significance of Early Warning Indicators of Vulnerability to Currency Crises\n- Figures and tables:\n - 25. Incidence of Currency and Banking Crises\n - 26. Macroeconomic Characteristics of Currency Crises\n - 27. Macroeconomic Characteristics of Banking Crises\n - 28. Asian Currency Crisis: Indicators of Vulnerability" }, { "heading": "Chapter V — Progress with Fiscal Reform in Countries in Transition (165k pdf file)", "content": "- Chapter title: Progress with Fiscal Reform in Countries in Transition\n- Sections listed:\n - From Stabilization to Sustainability\n - Transition and Government Revenue\n - Transition and Government Expenditure\n - Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations\n - Legal Reform, Transparency, and Accountability\n - Russia's Fiscal Challenges\n - Pension Reform in Countries in Transition\n- Tables and numbered items:\n - Countries in Transition: General Government Balance\n - Countries in Transition: General Government Revenue\n - Countries in Transition: General Government Expenditure\n - Selected Countries in Transition: Scenarios for Fiscal Sustainability\n - Selected Countries in Transition: Main Items in the General Government Revenue Structure, 1996\n - Selected Countries in Transition: Registered Unemployment\n - Selected Countries in Transition: Estimated Poverty Headcount and Poverty Deficit, in 1993–95\n - Selected Countries in Transition: Main Items in the General Government Expenditure Structure, 1996\n - Selected Countries in Transition: Life Expectancy at Birth\n - Selected Countries in Transition: Shares of Education and Health in Total Employment\n - Box 9. Russian Federation: Summary Operations of the General Government\n - Box 10. Public Pension Systems in Countries in Transition\n - Box 10. Countries in Transition: Public Pension Expenditure, 1993 and 1996\n - 29. Countries in Transition: General Government Revenue and Expenditure, 1997\n - 30. Countries in Transition: Government Revenue, 1997" }, { "heading": "Annexes (99k pdf file)", "content": "- Annex I. Transparency in Government Operations\n - Why Fiscal Transparency?\n - Institutions and Behavior\n - Government Accounts\n - Indicators and Projections\n - Overall Trends and Priorities\n - Role of the IMF in Promoting Fiscal Transparency\n- Annex II. Recent Developments in Primary Commodity Markets\n - Effects of the Asian Crisis\n - Effects of Weather\n - Developments in Specific Markets\n - Near-Term Outlook\n - Price Declines for Individual Commodities and Countries Most Affected in Foreign Exchange Earnings\n - 31. Selected Asian Countries' Shares in World Consumption of Primary Commodities\n - 32. Commercial Stocks of Petroleum in OECD Countries\n - 33. Real Commodity Prices and World Output" }, { "heading": "Statistical Appendix (380k pdf file)", "content": "- Contents:\n - Assumptions\n - Data and Conventions\n - Classification of Countries\n - List of Tables\n - Output (Tables A1–A7)\n - Inflation (Tables A8–A13)\n - Financial Policies (Tables A14–A21)\n - Foreign Trade (Tables A22–A26)\n - Current Account Transactions (Tables A27–A32)\n - Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A33–A37)\n - External Debt and Debt Service (Tables A38–A43)\n - Flow of Funds (Table A44)\n - Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables A45–A46)" }, { "heading": "Selected Topics (33k pdf file)", "content": "- World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–98\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Annex I Transparency in Government Operations\n - Annex I Transparency in Government Operations (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Annex I Transparency in Government Operations (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0598ch1pdf\n - 0598ch1pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 0598ch1pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0598ch2pdf - Fiscal consolidation, Asian crisis spillovers, and global outlook\n - 0598ch2pdf - Fiscal consolidation, Asian crisis spillovers, and global outlook (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 0598ch2pdf - Fiscal consolidation, Asian crisis spillovers, and global outlook (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0598ch3pdf\n - 0598ch3pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 0598ch3pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0598ch4pdf\n - 0598ch4pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 0598ch4pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0598ch5pdf\n - 0598ch5pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 0598ch5pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Statistical Appendix\n - IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Statistical Appendix (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Statistical Appendix (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Selected Topics, 1992-98\n - IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Selected Topics, 1992-98 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Selected Topics, 1992-98 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Transcript of a Press Conference on the World Economic Outlook\n- Ordering Information\n- Other issues of the World Economic Outlook\n- WEO Selected Topics, 1995 - present\n- Research at the IMF\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- International Monetary Fund\n- Disclaimer\n- Adobe Acrobat Reader\n- Tips for using PDF files\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-crises-causes-and-indicators" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-crises-causes-and-indicators/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-crises-causes-and-indicators/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-crises-causes-and-indicators/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: May 1, 1998", "Series: World Economic Outlook", "World Economic Outlook", "Transcript of a Press Conference on the World Economic Outlook April 13, 1998", "Ordering Information", "Other issues of the World Economic Outlook", "WEO Selected Topics, 1995 - present", "Research at the IMF", "Email notification sign-up: Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.", "Modify your profile", "Financial Crises: Causes and Indicators — May 1998", "Reports and Related Links: English — Read More", "Disclaimer", "Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view pdf files.", "Tips for using PDF files", "Chapter title: Global Economic Prospects and Policy Considerations", "Sections listed:", "Boxes:", "Table:", "Figures:", "Chapter title: Global Repercussions of the Asian Crisis and Other Issues in the Current Conjuncture", "Sections listed:", "Box:", "Tables:", "Chapter title: The Business Cycle, International Linkages, and Exchange Rates", "Sections listed:", "Figures and numbered items:", "Chapter title: Financial Crises: Characteristics and Indicators of Vulnerability", "Sections listed:", "Figures and tables:", "Chapter title: Progress with Fiscal Reform in Countries in Transition", "Sections listed:", "Tables and numbered items:", "Annex I. Transparency in Government Operations", "Annex II. Recent Developments in Primary Commodity Markets", "Contents:", "World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–98", "**Annex I Transparency in Government Operations**", "**0598ch1pdf**", "**_0598ch2pdf - Fiscal consolidation, Asian crisis spillovers, and global outlook**", "**0598ch3pdf**", "**_0598ch4pdf**", "**_0598ch5pdf**", "**IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Statistical Appendix**", "**IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Selected Topics, 1992-98**", "[Transcript of a Press Conference on the World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/1998/TR980413.HTM)", "[Ordering Information](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/weorder.htm)", "[Other issues of the World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/weorepts.htm)", "[WEO Selected Topics, 1995 - present](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/topics/weoindex.asp)", "[Research at the IMF](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/res/index.htm)", "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)", "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)", "[International Monetary Fund](https://www.imf.org/external/index.htm)", "[Disclaimer](https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm)", "[Adobe Acrobat Reader](https://www.imf.org/adobe)", "[Tips for using PDF files](https://www.imf.org/external/adobetip.htm)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Annex I Transparency in Government Operations", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598annpdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598annpdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598annpdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "0598ch1pdf", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch1pdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch1pdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch1pdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "_0598ch2pdf - 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