## IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), Financial Crises: Causes and Indicators, May 1998--Contents

_World Economic Outlook, May 1, 1998_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), Financial Crises: Causes and Indicators, May 1998--Contents](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-crises-causes-and-indicators)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-crises-causes-and-indicators/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-crises-causes-and-indicators/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-crises-causes-and-indicators/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: May 1, 1998
- Series: World Economic Outlook

---

### Front matter and general items
- World Economic Outlook
- Transcript of a Press Conference on the World Economic Outlook April 13, 1998
- Ordering Information
- Other issues of the World Economic Outlook
- WEO Selected Topics, 1995 - present
- Research at the IMF
- Email notification sign-up: Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.
- Modify your profile
- Financial Crises: Causes and Indicators — May 1998
- Reports and Related Links: English — Read More
- Disclaimer
- Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view pdf files.
- Tips for using PDF files

### Chapter I — Global Economic Prospects and Policy Considerations (198k pdf file)
- Chapter title: Global Economic Prospects and Policy Considerations
- Sections listed:
  - The Asian Crisis
  - Advanced Economies
  - Developing Countries
  - Countries in Transition
  - Appendix: Countdown to EMU--Progress Toward Convergence and Challenges Remaining
- Boxes:
  - 1. The Role of Hedge Funds in Financial Markets
  - 2. Moral Hazard and IMF Lending
  - 3. International Monetary System: Measures to Reduce the Risk of Crises
- Table:
  - European Union: Convergence Indicators
- Figures:
  - World Output and Inflation
  - Nominal and Real Interest Rates in the Prospective Euro Area
  - European Union: Average Inflation and General Government Balance
  - 4. European Union: General Government Budget Positions

### Chapter II — Global Repercussions of the Asian Crisis and Other Issues in the Current Conjuncture (314k pdf file)
- Chapter title: Global Repercussions of the Asian Crisis and Other Issues in the Current Conjuncture
- Sections listed:
  - The Global Growth Outlook
  - Prospects for Global Inflation (or Deflation)
  - Implications of Recent Currency Realignments for Countries' International Competitiveness
  - Prospects for Global Flows of Funds and Current Account Balances
  - Outlook for Japan
  - Emerging Market Countries: Selected Issues
- Box:
  - Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies
- Tables:
  - Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
  - Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates
  - Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
  - 5. Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  - 6. Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  - 7. Recent Exchange Rate Movements on Bilateral and Multilateral Bases
  - 8. Developing Countries, Countries in Transition, and Newly Industrialized Economies: Net Capital Flows
  - 9. Gross Private Financing to Emerging Market Economies
  - 10. Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
  - 11. Selected Latin American Economies: Macroeconomic Indicators
  - 12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Economic Indicators
  - Selected Asian Economies: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates and Equity Prices
  - Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps
  - Major Industrial Countries: Indices of Monetary Conditions
  - Selected European Union Countries and the United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence
  - Selected European Countries: Real Total Domestic Demand
  - Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates
  - Selected Advanced Economies: Inflation
  - Advanced Economies: Inflation and Commodity Prices
  - 13. Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates
  - 14. Japanese Banking Sector: Selected Indicators
  - 15. ASEAN-4 plus Korea: Aggregate Trade Balance
  - 16. Paths of Output Gaps in Cases of Financial Sector Shocks
  - 17. Selected Latin American Countries: Short-Term Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
  - 18. Egypt: Basic Macroeconomic Data

### Chapter III — The Business Cycle, International Linkages, and Exchange Rates (182k pdf file)
- Chapter title: The Business Cycle, International Linkages, and Exchange Rates
- Sections listed:
  - Business Cycles
  - The Relationship Between Business Cycles and Exchange Rates
  - Implications for Policy and Surveillance
  - Evaluating Exchange Rates
- Figures and numbered items:
  - Major Industrial Countries: Business Cycle Indicators
  - 19.
  - 20. Major Industrial Countries: Unemployment, Inflation, and Output Gaps
  - 21. Business Cycles and Output Gaps
  - 22. Three Major Industrial Countries: Real Effective Exchange Rates and Selected Relative Cyclical Variables
  - 23. Selected Major Industrial Countries: Temporary Dollar Appreciation Scenario
  - 24. Three Major Industrial Countries: Variability in Effective Exchange Rates

### Chapter IV — Financial Crises: Characteristics and Indicators of Vulnerability (215k pdf file)
- Chapter title: Financial Crises: Characteristics and Indicators of Vulnerability
- Sections listed:
  - Types of Crises
  - Identifying Crises
  - Origins of Currency and Banking Crises
  - Currency Crises and Contagion
  - Indicators of Vulnerability
  - Stylized Behavior of Macroeconomic Variables Before and After Crises
  - Early Warning Signals of Vulnerability to Currency Crises
  - Resolving Banking Sector Problems
  - Effective Banking Prudential Regulations and Requirements
  - The Current Account and External Sustainability
  - Selected Crises: Costs of Restructuring Financial Sectors and Nonperforming Loans
  - Costs of Crises in Lost Output Relative to Trend
  - Significance of Early Warning Indicators of Vulnerability to Currency Crises
- Figures and tables:
  - 25. Incidence of Currency and Banking Crises
  - 26. Macroeconomic Characteristics of Currency Crises
  - 27. Macroeconomic Characteristics of Banking Crises
  - 28. Asian Currency Crisis: Indicators of Vulnerability

### Chapter V — Progress with Fiscal Reform in Countries in Transition (165k pdf file)
- Chapter title: Progress with Fiscal Reform in Countries in Transition
- Sections listed:
  - From Stabilization to Sustainability
  - Transition and Government Revenue
  - Transition and Government Expenditure
  - Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations
  - Legal Reform, Transparency, and Accountability
  - Russia's Fiscal Challenges
  - Pension Reform in Countries in Transition
- Tables and numbered items:
  - Countries in Transition: General Government Balance
  - Countries in Transition: General Government Revenue
  - Countries in Transition: General Government Expenditure
  - Selected Countries in Transition: Scenarios for Fiscal Sustainability
  - Selected Countries in Transition: Main Items in the General Government Revenue Structure, 1996
  - Selected Countries in Transition: Registered Unemployment
  - Selected Countries in Transition: Estimated Poverty Headcount and Poverty Deficit, in 1993–95
  - Selected Countries in Transition: Main Items in the General Government Expenditure Structure, 1996
  - Selected Countries in Transition: Life Expectancy at Birth
  - Selected Countries in Transition: Shares of Education and Health in Total Employment
  - Box 9. Russian Federation: Summary Operations of the General Government
  - Box 10. Public Pension Systems in Countries in Transition
  - Box 10. Countries in Transition: Public Pension Expenditure, 1993 and 1996
  - 29. Countries in Transition: General Government Revenue and Expenditure, 1997
  - 30. Countries in Transition: Government Revenue, 1997

### Annexes (99k pdf file)
- Annex I. Transparency in Government Operations
  - Why Fiscal Transparency?
  - Institutions and Behavior
  - Government Accounts
  - Indicators and Projections
  - Overall Trends and Priorities
  - Role of the IMF in Promoting Fiscal Transparency
- Annex II. Recent Developments in Primary Commodity Markets
  - Effects of the Asian Crisis
  - Effects of Weather
  - Developments in Specific Markets
  - Near-Term Outlook
  - Price Declines for Individual Commodities and Countries Most Affected in Foreign Exchange Earnings
  - 31. Selected Asian Countries' Shares in World Consumption of Primary Commodities
  - 32. Commercial Stocks of Petroleum in OECD Countries
  - 33. Real Commodity Prices and World Output

### Statistical Appendix (380k pdf file)
- Contents:
  - Assumptions
  - Data and Conventions
  - Classification of Countries
  - List of Tables
  - Output (Tables A1–A7)
  - Inflation (Tables A8–A13)
  - Financial Policies (Tables A14–A21)
  - Foreign Trade (Tables A22–A26)
  - Current Account Transactions (Tables A27–A32)
  - Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A33–A37)
  - External Debt and Debt Service (Tables A38–A43)
  - Flow of Funds (Table A44)
  - Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables A45–A46)

### Selected Topics (33k pdf file)
- World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–98

---

## Content in this bundle

- **Annex I Transparency in Government Operations**
  - [Annex I Transparency in Government Operations (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598annpdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Annex I Transparency in Government Operations (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598annpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **0598ch1pdf**
  - [0598ch1pdf (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch1pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [0598ch1pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch1pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **_0598ch2pdf - Fiscal consolidation, Asian crisis spillovers, and global outlook**
  - [_0598ch2pdf - Fiscal consolidation, Asian crisis spillovers, and global outlook (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch2pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [_0598ch2pdf - Fiscal consolidation, Asian crisis spillovers, and global outlook (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch2pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **0598ch3pdf**
  - [0598ch3pdf (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch3pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [0598ch3pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch3pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **_0598ch4pdf**
  - [_0598ch4pdf (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch4pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [_0598ch4pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch4pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **_0598ch5pdf**
  - [_0598ch5pdf (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch5pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [_0598ch5pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598ch5pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Statistical Appendix**
  - [IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Statistical Appendix (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598stapdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Statistical Appendix (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598stapdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Selected Topics, 1992-98**
  - [IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Selected Topics, 1992-98 (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598toppdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [IMF World Economic Outlook, May 1998--Selected Topics, 1992-98 (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/_0598toppdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

## References

- [Transcript of a Press Conference on the World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/1998/TR980413.HTM)
- [Ordering Information](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/weorder.htm)
- [Other issues of the World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/weorepts.htm)
- [WEO Selected Topics, 1995 - present](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/topics/weoindex.asp)
- [Research at the IMF](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/res/index.htm)
- [Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)
- [Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)
- [International Monetary Fund](https://www.imf.org/external/index.htm)
- [Disclaimer](https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm)
- [Adobe Acrobat Reader](https://www.imf.org/adobe)
- [Tips for using PDF files](https://www.imf.org/external/adobetip.htm)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-crises-causes-and-indicators_