## IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries

_World Economic Outlook, October 2, 2008_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-stress-downturns-and-recoveries)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-stress-downturns-and-recoveries/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-stress-downturns-and-recoveries/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-stress-downturns-and-recoveries/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: October 2, 2008
- Series: World Economic Outlook

---

### Overview
- Publication date: October 2008
- The WEO presents IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups, and in many individual countries.
- Prepared semiannually as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee; forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.
- Full text available as a 6.6 MB pdf file.

### Major analytic themes and objectives
- Review of global macroeconomic developments, forecasts of growth, and identification of risks.
- Focus on major economic policy issues and analysis of economic developments and prospects.
- Emphasis on financial stress, economic downturns, fiscal policy responses, commodity-price-driven inflation, and current account divergence across emerging economies.

### Chapter-level highlights and substantive topics
- Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies
  - "Global Economy under Stress"
  - "Financial System in Crisis"
  - "Deepening Housing Corrections"
  - "Overstretched Commodity Markets"
  - "Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Too Loose?"
  - "Prospects for a Turnaround"
  - "Policy Challenges for the Global Economy"
  - Appendix 1.1: "Assessing and Communicating Risks to the Global Outlook"

- Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives
  - Regional and country assessments including:
    - "United States and Canada: Bending but Not Buckling"
    - "Western Europe: Struggling with Multiple Shocks"
    - "Advanced Asia: Responding to External Shocks"
    - "Emerging Asia: Balancing Risks to Growth and Price Stability"
    - "Latin America and the Caribbean: Navigating a More Perilous Environment"
    - "Emerging Europe: Prospects for a Soft Landing"
    - "Commonwealth of Independent States: Managing the Commodity Price Boom"
    - "Sub-Saharan Africa: A Test of Policy Frameworks"
    - "Middle East: Overheating Still A Concern"

- Chapter 3. Is Inflation Back? Commodity Prices and Inflation
  - "Surging Commodity Prices: Origins and Prospects"
  - "Commodity Price Shocks and Inflation"
  - "Monetary Policy Responses to Commodity Price Shocks"
  - "Summary and Conclusions"
  - Appendices:
    - Appendix 3.1. Recent Commodity Market Developments
    - Appendix 3.2. Accounting for Food Price Increases, 2006–08
    - Appendix 3.3. Estimating Inflationary Effects of Commodity Price Shocks

- Chapter 4. Financial Stress and Economic Downturns
  - "Identifying Episodes of Financial Stress"
  - "Financial Stress, Economic Slowdown, and Recession"
  - "Has Financial Innovation Affected the Interplay between Financial Stress and Economic Cycles"
  - "The Current Financial Crisis in Historical Context"
  - "Conclusions"
  - Appendix 4.1. Data and Methodology

- Chapter 5. Fiscal Policy as a Countercyclical Tool
  - "Understanding the Fiscal Policy Debate"
  - "How Has Discretionary Fiscal Policy Typically Responded?"
  - "Are Fiscal Policy Reactions Different in Emerging and Advanced Economies?"
  - "The Macroeconomic Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy"
  - "A Simulation-Based Perspective on Fiscal Stimulus"
  - "Conclusions and Policy Considerations"
  - Appendix 5.1. Data and Empirical Methods

- Chapter 6. Divergence of Current Account Balances across Emerging Economies
  - "Recent Current Account Patterns in Emerging Economies"
  - "What Factors Have Contributed to Recent Current Account Patterns"
  - "Sustainability of Current Account Imbalances"
  - "Conclusions and Policy Implications"
  - Appendices:
    - Appendix 6.1. Variable Definitions and Data Source
    - Appendix 6.2. Econometric Approach

### Analytical tools, boxes, and annexes
- Numerous boxes addressing methodological and policy questions (examples):
  - "The Latest Bout of Financial Distress: How Does It Change the Marcroeconomic Outlook?"
  - "House Prices: Corrections and Consequences"
  - "Measuring Output Gaps"
  - "Policies to Resolve Financial System Stress and Restore Sound Financial Intermediation"
  - "Differences in the Extent of Automatic Stabilizers and Their Relationship with Discretionary Fiscal Policy"
  - "Sovereign Wealth Funds: Implications for Global Financial Markets"
- Annex: "IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, September 2008"
- Statistical Appendix covering "Assumptions," "Data and Conventions," "Classification of Countries," and "General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification"

### Data, tables, and figures (selected types and topics)
- Tables: Output, Inflation, Financial Policies, Foreign Trade, Current Account Transactions, Balance of Payments and External Financing, Flow of Funds, Medium–Term Baseline Scenario, External Debt and Debt Service.
- Figures and charts include:
  - "Global Indicators" and "Current and Forward-Looking Indicators"
  - "Global Inflation"
  - "Developments in Mature Credit Markets" and "Emerging Economy Financial Conditions"
  - "Impact of Financial Shock on the Global Economy"
  - "Financial Stress Index" and "Financial Stress and Output Loss"
  - "Macroeconomic Indicators around Downturns, with and without a Fiscal Impulse"
  - "World Oil Market Balances and Oil Futures Price"
  - "Commodity Prices in Historical Context"
- Empirical analyses and diagnostics:
  - Descriptive statistics on financial stress episodes and on financial stress, slowdowns, and recessions
  - Cross-section regressions and duration regressions for current account deficits and imbalances
  - Simulations of fiscal stimulus effects under various initial conditions and economy sizes

### Key numeric references preserved from the publication
- Publication date: October 2008
- Full text file size: 6.6 MB pdf file
- Time series and sample ranges cited in figures and tables include: 1991–2007, 2006–08, 1960-2007

*IMF World Economic Outlook — Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries (October 2008).*

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- [Annexpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/pdf/_annexpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
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---

## References

- [Transcript](http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2008/tr081002.htm)
- [Transcript](http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2008/tr081008.htm)
- [Archive of WEO Reports](http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)
- [IMF Data Mapper®](http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php)
- [Research at the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/res/index.htm)
- [Disclaimer](http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm)
- [Video Briefing](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1269)
- [Video](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1248)
- [Video](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1249)
- [Video](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1250)
- [Video](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1251)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/financial-stress-downturns-and-recoveries_