{ "title": "IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update -- Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies, January 2009", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, January 28, 2009", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/global-economic-slump-challenges-policies", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/global-economic-slump-challenges-policies", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/global-economic-slump-challenges-policies/index.md", "summary": "World growth is projected to fall to ½ percent in 2009, its lowest rate since World War II. Despite wide-ranging policy actions, financial strains remain acute, pulling down the real economy.", "publishDate": "2009-01-28", "series": "World Economic Outlook", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview", "content": "- World growth is projected to fall to ½ percent in 2009, its lowest rate since World War II.\n- The projection for global growth in 2010 is 3 percent, reflecting a gradual recovery contingent on strong policy actions.\n- This outlook represents a downward revision of about 1¾ percentage point from the November 2008 WEO Update." }, { "heading": "Growth projections and revisions", "content": "- World output (year-over-year): 5.2 (2007), 3.4 (2008), 0.5 (2009), 3.0 (2010).\n- Q4 over Q4 and differences from November projections are incorporated in the baseline projections.\n- World growth measured in market exchange rates is expected to turn negative in 2009.\n- World trade volume (goods and services) experienced a sharp decline in late 2008 and is projected to remain weak during 2009." }, { "heading": "Financial market conditions", "content": "- Financial market conditions have remained extremely difficult and more protracted than envisaged in November 2008.\n- In advanced economies, spreads in funding markets have only gradually narrowed since end-October despite government guarantees; many credit market spreads remain close to their peaks.\n- In emerging economies, sovereign and corporate spreads remain elevated despite recent moderation.\n- Equity markets in both advanced and emerging economies have made little or no gains; currency markets have been volatile.\n- Financial markets are expected to remain strained during 2009 until forceful restructuring and resolution of uncertainty about losses are implemented." }, { "heading": "Real-financial feedback loop and macro impact", "content": "- Asset values fell sharply across advanced and emerging economies in late 2008, reducing household wealth and consumer demand.\n- High uncertainty prompted households and businesses to postpone expenditures, reducing demand for consumer and capital goods.\n- Disruptions in credit constrained household spending and curtailed production and trade, reinforcing a pernicious feedback loop between the real and financial sectors.\n- Global output and trade plummeted in the final months of 2008." }, { "heading": "Advanced economies", "content": "- Output in advanced economies is expected to contract by 2 percent in 2009—the first annual contraction in the postwar period.\n- The cumulative output loss (relative to potential) is comparable to the 1974-75 and 1980-82 periods.\n- Under assumptions of comprehensive financial policy actions, sizable fiscal stimulus, and large interest rate cuts, output is expected to start recovering in late 2009 and rise by about 1 percent in 2010.\n- Stabilization in the U.S. housing market is expected to help underpin the recovery." }, { "heading": "Emerging and developing economies", "content": "- Growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to slow from 6¼ percent in 2008 to 3¼ percent in 2009.\n- Drag factors include falling export demand and financing, lower commodity prices, and much tighter external financing constraints—especially for economies with large external imbalances.\n- Stronger economic frameworks provide greater room for policy support than in past downturns, helping cushion the shock.\n- Developing countries in Africa and elsewhere are better prepared due to improved macroeconomic implementation, but Africa remains in a weaker position because of poverty levels and reliance on commodity exports." }, { "heading": "Commodity prices and inflation", "content": "- The slump in global demand led to a collapse in commodity prices; oil prices have declined by over 60 percent since their peak in July 2008.\n- The IMF baseline petroleum price projection is $50 a barrel for 2009 and $60 a barrel for 2010 (revised from $68 and $78).\n- Metals and food prices have been marked down in line with recent developments.\n- Inflation pressures have subsided:\n - Advanced economies headline inflation: 3½ percent in 2008 → ¼ percent in 2009 → ¾ percent in 2010.\n - Emerging and developing economies inflation: 9½ percent in 2008 → 5¾ percent in 2009 → 5 percent in 2010." }, { "heading": "Policy responses and recommendations", "content": "- Financial sector: need to restore functionality and unclog credit markets by producing credible loan loss recognition; sorting financial companies according to medium-run viability; providing public support to viable institutions by injecting capital and carving out bad assets.\n- Specific financial measures recommended include:\n - Force credible and coordinated loan loss recognition.\n - Resolve insolvent banks.\n - Set up public agencies to dispose of bad debts, possibly through a \"bad bank\" approach, while safeguarding public resources.\n- Monetary policy:\n - Central banks in advanced economies have cut policy rates substantially; short-term market interest rates in 2009 are assumed about ¾ percentage point lower in the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom relative to the November WEO Update.\n - With interest rates approaching zero in several major countries, central banks are exploring alternative approaches that use their balance sheets to ease monetary conditions further.\n - Emphasis on unlocking key (high-spread, low-liquidity) credit markets.\n- Fiscal policy:\n - Fiscal stimulus in G-20 countries in 2009 is projected to be 1.5 percent of GDP.\n - Fiscal balances in advanced economies are projected to deteriorate by 3¼ percentage points to -7 percent of GDP in 2009 due to stimulus, automatic stabilizers, revenue losses, and financial rescue costs.\n - Fiscal stimulus packages should rely primarily on temporary measures and be formulated within medium-term fiscal frameworks to ensure reversibility and long-term sustainability.\n - Countries with limited fiscal space should prioritize supporting the financial sector and credit flows while adjusting budgets to less favorable external conditions.\n - Avoid cutbacks in foreign aid in response to tightening budgets." }, { "heading": "Risks and uncertainty", "content": "- The uncertainty surrounding the outlook is unusually large; downside risks dominate.\n- Main downside risk: if financial strains and uncertainties are not forcefully addressed, the real-financial feedback loop could intensify, further damaging global growth.\n- Rising risks of deflation in a number of advanced economies.\n- Emerging economies' corporate sectors face risks from continued limited access to external financing.\n- Sharp increase in public debt issuance could prompt adverse market reactions unless governments clarify strategies to ensure long-term sustainability.\n- Upside risk: stronger-than-expected policy actions could improve global financial conditions faster than expected and lift growth." }, { "heading": "Key statistics and highlighted figures", "content": "- World growth: ½ percent (2009), 3 percent (2010).\n- Downward revision from November 2008 WEO Update: about 1¾ percentage point.\n- Advanced economies growth: -2 percent (2009).\n- Emerging and developing economies growth: 6¼ percent (2008) → 3¼ percent (2009).\n- Oil price assumptions: $50.00 a barrel (2009), $60.00 a barrel (2010); average price of oil in U.S. dollars a barrel was $97.03 in 2008.\n- Oil price change in 2009 projection: -48.5 percent (listed in Table 1.1 commodity line).\n- Advanced economies headline inflation: 3½ percent (2008) → ¼ percent (2009) → ¾ percent (2010).\n- Emerging and developing economies inflation: 9½ percent (2008) → 5¾ percent (2009) → 5 percent (2010).\n- Fiscal stimulus in G-20 countries in 2009: 1.5 percent of GDP.\n- Fiscal balance deterioration in advanced economies: deterioration by 3¼ percentage points to -7 percent of GDP in 2009.\n- Table 1.1 selected aggregates (percent change, unless otherwise noted): World output 5.2 (2007), 3.4 (2008), 0.5 (2009), 3.0 (2010).\n\nIMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update -- Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies, January 2009\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 0109a (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0109c (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0109f (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0109j (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 122308pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Spn0901pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0109pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table1pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0109r (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0109s (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- figure1\n - figure1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - figure1 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- figure2 (dataset overview)\n - figure2 (dataset overview) (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - figure2 (dataset overview) (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- figure3 — dataset overview\n - figure3 — dataset overview (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - figure3 — dataset overview (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- figure4\n - figure4 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - figure4 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- figure5 (dataset overview)\n - figure5 (dataset overview) (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - figure5 (dataset overview) (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- figure6\n - figure6 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - figure6 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- October 2008\n- Archive of WEO Reports\n- Research at the IMF\n- World Economic Outlook Database\n- discussion forum\n- United Kingdom and the IMF\n- United States and the IMF\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo\n- Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr\n- Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm\n- Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo\n- Asia and Pacific\n- Europe\n- Middle East and Central Asia\n- Sub-Saharan Africa\n- Western Hemisphere\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb\n- Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development\n- More Publications\n- November 2008 WEO Update\n- January 2009 Global Financial Stability Report—Market Update\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/global-economic-slump-challenges-policies" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/global-economic-slump-challenges-policies/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/global-economic-slump-challenges-policies/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/global-economic-slump-challenges-policies/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: January 28, 2009", "Series: World Economic Outlook", "World growth is projected to fall to ½ percent in 2009, its lowest rate since World War II.", "The projection for global growth in 2010 is 3 percent, reflecting a gradual recovery contingent on strong policy actions.", "This outlook represents a downward revision of about 1¾ percentage point from the November 2008 WEO Update.", "World output (year-over-year): 5.2 (2007), 3.4 (2008), 0.5 (2009), 3.0 (2010).", "Q4 over Q4 and differences from November projections are incorporated in the baseline projections.", "World growth measured in market exchange rates is expected to turn negative in 2009.", "World trade volume (goods and services) experienced a sharp decline in late 2008 and is projected to remain weak during 2009.", "Financial market conditions have remained extremely difficult and more protracted than envisaged in November 2008.", "In advanced economies, spreads in funding markets have only gradually narrowed since end-October despite government guarantees; many credit market spreads remain close to their peaks.", "In emerging economies, sovereign and corporate spreads remain elevated despite recent moderation.", "Equity markets in both advanced and emerging economies have made little or no gains; currency markets have been volatile.", "Financial markets are expected to remain strained during 2009 until forceful restructuring and resolution of uncertainty about losses are implemented.", "Asset values fell sharply across advanced and emerging economies in late 2008, reducing household wealth and consumer demand.", "High uncertainty prompted households and businesses to postpone expenditures, reducing demand for consumer and capital goods.", "Disruptions in credit constrained household spending and curtailed production and trade, reinforcing a pernicious feedback loop between the real and financial sectors.", "Global output and trade plummeted in the final months of 2008.", "Output in advanced economies is expected to contract by 2 percent in 2009—the first annual contraction in the postwar period.", "The cumulative output loss (relative to potential) is comparable to the 1974-75 and 1980-82 periods.", "Under assumptions of comprehensive financial policy actions, sizable fiscal stimulus, and large interest rate cuts, output is expected to start recovering in late 2009 and rise by about 1 percent in 2010.", "Stabilization in the U.S. housing market is expected to help underpin the recovery.", "Growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to slow from 6¼ percent in 2008 to 3¼ percent in 2009.", "Drag factors include falling export demand and financing, lower commodity prices, and much tighter external financing constraints—especially for economies with large external imbalances.", "Stronger economic frameworks provide greater room for policy support than in past downturns, helping cushion the shock.", "Developing countries in Africa and elsewhere are better prepared due to improved macroeconomic implementation, but Africa remains in a weaker position because of poverty levels and reliance on commodity exports.", "The slump in global demand led to a collapse in commodity prices; oil prices have declined by over 60 percent since their peak in July 2008.", "The IMF baseline petroleum price projection is $50 a barrel for 2009 and $60 a barrel for 2010 (revised from $68 and $78).", "Metals and food prices have been marked down in line with recent developments.", "Inflation pressures have subsided:", "Financial sector: need to restore functionality and unclog credit markets by producing credible loan loss recognition; sorting financial companies according to medium-run viability; providing public support to viable institutions by injecting capital and carving out bad assets.", "Specific financial measures recommended include:", "Monetary policy:", "Fiscal policy:", "The uncertainty surrounding the outlook is unusually large; downside risks dominate.", "Main downside risk: if financial strains and uncertainties are not forcefully addressed, the real-financial feedback loop could intensify, further damaging global growth.", "Rising risks of deflation in a number of advanced economies.", "Emerging economies' corporate sectors face risks from continued limited access to external financing.", "Sharp increase in public debt issuance could prompt adverse market reactions unless governments clarify strategies to ensure long-term sustainability.", "Upside risk: stronger-than-expected policy actions could improve global financial conditions faster than expected and lift growth.", "World growth: ½ percent (2009), 3 percent (2010).", "Downward revision from November 2008 WEO Update: about 1¾ percentage point.", "Advanced economies growth: -2 percent (2009).", "Emerging and developing economies growth: 6¼ percent (2008) → 3¼ percent (2009).", "Oil price assumptions: $50.00 a barrel (2009), $60.00 a barrel (2010); average price of oil in U.S. dollars a barrel was $97.03 in 2008.", "Oil price change in 2009 projection: -48.5 percent (listed in Table 1.1 commodity line).", "Advanced economies headline inflation: 3½ percent (2008) → ¼ percent (2009) → ¾ percent (2010).", "Emerging and developing economies inflation: 9½ percent (2008) → 5¾ percent (2009) → 5 percent (2010).", "Fiscal stimulus in G-20 countries in 2009: 1.5 percent of GDP.", "Fiscal balance deterioration in advanced economies: deterioration by 3¼ percentage points to -7 percent of GDP in 2009.", "Table 1.1 selected aggregates (percent change, unless otherwise noted): World output 5.2 (2007), 3.4 (2008), 0.5 (2009), 3.0 (2010).", "[0109a (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/pdf/0109a.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[0109c (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/chinese/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/pdf/0109c.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[0109f (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/pdf/0109f.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[0109j (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/japanese/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/pdf/0109j.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[122308pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/np/pp/eng/2008/_122308pdf.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[Spn0901pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/_spn0901pdf.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[0109pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/pdf/_0109pdf.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[Table1pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/pdf/_table1pdf.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[0109r (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/russian/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/pdf/0109r.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[0109s (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/spanish/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/pdf/0109s.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "**figure1**", "**figure2 (dataset overview)**", "**figure3 — dataset overview**", "**figure4**", "**figure5 (dataset overview)**", "**figure6**", "[October 2008](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/weodata/index.aspx)", "[Archive of WEO Reports](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)", "[Research at the IMF](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/res/index.htm)", "[World Economic Outlook Database](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/weodata/index.aspx)", "[discussion forum](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/forum/index.htm)", "[United Kingdom and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GBR/index.htm)", "[United States and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/USA/index.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo)", "[Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr)", "[Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm)", "[Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo)", "[Asia and Pacific](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/apac)", "[Europe](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/eu)", "[Middle East and Central Asia](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca)", "[Sub-Saharan Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa)", "[Western Hemisphere](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/wh)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb)", "[Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb/issues/2025/09/24/annual-report-2025)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development)", "[More Publications](https://www.imf.org/en/publications)", "[November 2008 WEO Update](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/update/03/index.htm)", "[January 2009 Global Financial Stability Report—Market Update](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fmu/eng/2009/01/index.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "related": [ { "title": "0109a", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/pdf/0109a.pdf", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/pdf/0109a.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "0109c", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/chinese/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/pdf/0109c.pdf", "binary": { "path": 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