{
  "title": "IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update -- Global Recovery Stalls, Downside Risks Intensify, January 2012",
  "publication": "World Economic Outlook, January 24, 2012",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/global-recovery-stalls-downside-risks-intensify",
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  "summary": "Global output is projected to expand by 3¼ percent in 2012 — a downward revision of about ¾ percentage point relative to the September 2011 World Economic Outlook (WEO).",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Global outlook and headline projections",
      "content": "- Global output is projected to expand by 3¼ percent in 2012 — a downward revision of about ¾ percentage point relative to the September 2011 World Economic Outlook (WEO).\n- Global GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 3½ percent during Q3 2011.\n- Table 1 key year-over-year projections (percent change unless noted):\n  - World Output: 2010 = 5.2; 2011 = 3.8; 2012 = 3.3; 2013 = 3.9; Q4 over Q4 estimates = 3.4; difference from September 2011 WEO projections = –0.7 (2012), –0.6 (2013).\n  - Advanced Economies: 2010 = 3.2; 2011 = 1.6; 2012 = 1.2; 2013 = 1.9; difference from Sept. 2011 = –0.5.\n  - Emerging and Developing Economies: 2010 = 7.3; 2011 = 6.2; 2012 = 5.4; 2013 = 5.9; difference from Sept. 2011 = –½ percentage point (average 2012–13 expected to be 5¾ percent).\n  - Developing Asia (including China and India): 2010 = 9.5; 2011 = 7.9; 2012 = 7.8; 2013 = 7.4; China: 2010 = 10.4; 2011 = 9.2; 2012 = 8.2; India: 2010 = 9.9; 2011 = 7.0; 2012 = 6.7.\n  - World Trade Volume (goods and services) — 2010 = 12.7; 2011 = –2.0.\n  - Commodity prices (U.S. dollars): Oil average price in 2011 = $104.23 a barrel; assumed price based on futures markets = $99.09 in 2012 and $95.55 in 2013.\n  - Nonfuel commodity prices projected change in 2012 = –14 percent.\n  - Consumer prices: advanced economy inflation projected to fall to about 1½ percent in the course of 2012 (peak about 2¾ percent in 2011); emerging and developing economies inflation projected around 6¼ percent during 2012 (down from over 7¼ percent in 2011)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Drivers of deterioration and regional effects",
      "content": "- Primary driver: intensifying strains in the euro area interacting with financial fragilities elsewhere (widened sovereign spreads, bank funding dried up, bank deleveraging).\n- Financial market developments:\n  - Sovereign spreads for many euro area countries reached highs not seen since the launch of the Economic and Monetary Union.\n  - ECB offered a three-year Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) in response to funding strains.\n  - Bank lending conditions moved sideways or deteriorated across a number of advanced economies.\n  - Capital flows to emerging economies fell sharply; currency markets were volatile (Japanese yen appreciated; many emerging market currencies depreciated significantly).\n- Regional outlook highlights:\n  - Euro area: now expected to go into a mild recession in 2012; significant downward revision of 1½ percentage points since the September 2011 WEO.\n  - Advanced economies (ex-euro area): activity projected to expand by 1½ percent on average during 2012–13; growth too sluggish to make a major dent in very high unemployment.\n  - Emerging and developing economies: average growth during 2012–13 expected to be 5¾ percent (down from 6¾ percent during 2010–11); developing Asia projected to grow 7½ percent on average during 2012–13.\n  - Middle East and North Africa: activity expected to accelerate in 2012–13 driven mainly by the recovery in Libya and strong oil exporters; most oil-importing countries face muted prospects.\n  - Sub-Saharan Africa: output expected to expand by around 5½ percent in 2012; impact of global slowdown limited to a few countries (notably South Africa).\n  - Central and Eastern Europe: expected to face the largest adverse spillovers due to strong trade and financial linkages with the euro area."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Downside scenarios and risks (quantified)",
      "content": "- Euro-area-driven downside scenario assumptions and impacts:\n  - Sovereign spreads temporarily rise; fiscal consolidation is more front-loaded; bank asset quality deteriorates; private investment contracts by additional 1¾ percentage points of GDP (relative to WEO projections).\n  - Euro area output reduced by about 4 percent relative to the WEO forecast.\n  - Global output lower than WEO projections by about 2 percent (assuming financial contagion to the rest of the world more intense than baseline but weaker than following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008).\n- Other key risks:\n  - Insufficient progress on medium-term fiscal consolidation in the United States and Japan could lead to turmoil in global bond and currency markets.\n  - Political paralysis in the United States could produce excessive near-term fiscal tightening.\n  - Hard landing risk in key emerging economies if buoyant credit and asset price growth unwind.\n  - Geopolitical oil supply risks (e.g., intensified concerns about an Iran-related shock) could have a large market impact given limited inventories and spare capacity."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Commodity prices and inflation dynamics",
      "content": "- Oil: baseline petroleum price projection for 2012 is broadly unchanged since September 2011 ($99 a barrel compared with $100).\n- Non-oil commodity prices: projected to fall by 14 percent in 2012; near-term risks to these prices skewed to the downside.\n- Inflation:\n  - Advanced economies: inflation projected to ease, reaching about 1½ percent in 2012 (down from about 2¾ percent in 2011).\n  - Emerging and developing economies: inflation projected around 6¼ percent during 2012 (down from over 7¼ percent in 2011), though inflation may remain persistent in some regions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and required actions (enumerated)",
      "content": "- Overarching requirements for a more resilient recovery:\n  - Sustained but gradual adjustment.\n  - Ample liquidity and easy monetary policy, mainly in advanced economies.\n  - Restored confidence in policymakers’ ability to act.\n  - Not all countries should adjust in the same way, to the same extent, or at the same time.\n- Fiscal adjustment:\n  - Let automatic stabilizers operate freely for as long as financing conditions permit.\n  - Countries with very low interest rates or other fiscal space (including some in the euro area) should reconsider the pace of near-term consolidation.\n  - United States and Japan should formulate and implement credible medium-term consolidation plans (examples: reforms to slow growth of health care and pension spending; caps on discretionary spending; tax system reforms).\n- Liquidity and monetary policy:\n  - Monetary policy should continue to support growth while inflation expectations remain anchored and unemployment stays high.\n  - If downside risks materialize, further monetary stimulus — including quantitative easing — may be necessary.\n  - Targeted programs to ease credit constraints on businesses and households where monetary transmission is impaired.\n  - In the euro area: additional and timely monetary easing by the ECB; continued provision of liquidity and engagement in securities purchases; sufficient funding through the EFSF and ESM.\n- Bank deleveraging and financial repair:\n  - Inject more capital into euro area banks (including public sources) and avoid excessively fast deleveraging to prevent a credit crunch.\n  - Countries under pressure may require recourse to euro-wide resources to facilitate bank recapitalization.\n  - Easy short-term funding should be coupled with repair and reform of financial systems to normalize credit conditions (see January 2012 Global Financial Stability Report Update).\n- Restoring confidence in the euro area:\n  - Deepen financial and fiscal integration over time (common supervision, resolution, and deposit insurance).\n  - Near-term: a pan-euro area facility with capacity to take direct stakes in banks.\n  - Further fiscal integration and more risk sharing across euro area members alongside stronger fiscal discipline or centralization.\n  - Fold EFSF into the ESM and increase the size of the ESM to add substantial real resources.\n  - Medium-term: structural reforms to labor and product markets to address internal imbalances and competitiveness problems.\n- Policy guidance for emerging and developing economies:\n  - Respond to moderating domestic demand and slowing external demand while managing volatile capital flows.\n  - Countries with controlled inflation, low public debt, and external surpluses (including China and selected emerging Asian economies) can deploy additional social spending to support poorer households.\n  - Economies with diminishing inflation but weaker fiscal fundamentals can stop tightening or ease monetary policy while managing lending to overheating sectors via macroprudential measures.\n  - Economies with relatively high inflation and public debt (including India and some Middle Eastern economies) should be cautious about policy easing.\n- Collective action and structural reforms:\n  - Foster global demand rebalancing by economies with strong household balance sheets and external positions eliminating distortions that weigh on domestic demand.\n  - Structural reforms to boost potential output: reform labor and product markets; strengthen resilience to population aging; improve social safety nets, pension, health care, and education systems; strengthen financial sectors; improve business environment for private investment.\n\nIMF World Economic Outlook Update — Global Recovery Stalls, Downside Risks Intensify, January 2012\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Figure 1.  Global GDP Growth\n  - Figure 1.  Global GDP Growth (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 1.  Global GDP Growth (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 2.  Recent Economic Indicators\n  - Figure 2.  Recent Economic Indicators (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 2.  Recent Economic Indicators (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 3.  Recent Financial Market Developments\n  - Figure 3.  Recent Financial Market Developments (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 3.  Recent Financial Market Developments (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 4. WEO Downside Scenario\n  - Figure 4. WEO Downside Scenario (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 4. WEO Downside Scenario (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 5.  Net Fund Flows to Emerging Markets\n  - Figure 5.  Net Fund Flows to Emerging Markets (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 5.  Net Fund Flows to Emerging Markets (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- 0112a\n  - 0112a (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 0112a (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 世界经济展望最新预测 2012年1月——全球复苏停滞，下行风险加剧\n  - 世界经济展望最新预测 2012年1月——全球复苏停滞，下行风险加剧 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 世界经济展望最新预测 2012年1月——全球复苏停滞，下行风险加剧 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Mise à jour des Perspectives de l’économie mondiale; le 24 janvier 2012; FMI\n  - Mise à jour des Perspectives de l’économie mondiale; le 24 janvier 2012; FMI (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Mise à jour des Perspectives de l’économie mondiale; le 24 janvier 2012; FMI (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 世界経済見通し改訂見通し　2012年1月　--　世界経済は失速、強まる下振れリスク\n  - 世界経済見通し改訂見通し　2012年1月　--　世界経済は失速、強まる下振れリスク (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 世界経済見通し改訂見通し　2012年1月　--　世界経済は失速、強まる下振れリスク (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Figure 1.  Global GDP Growth\n  - Figure 1.  Global GDP Growth (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 1.  Global GDP Growth (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Figure 2. Recent Economic Indicators\n  - Figure 2. Recent Economic Indicators (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 2. Recent Economic Indicators (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- fig3pdf\n  - fig3pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - fig3pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- fig4pdf\n  - fig4pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - fig4pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Figure 5.  Net Fund Flows to Emerging Markets\n  - Figure 5.  Net Fund Flows to Emerging Markets (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 5.  Net Fund Flows to Emerging Markets (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0112pdf\n  - 0112pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 0112pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективы развития мировой экономики - Бюллетень; 24 января 2012 года\n  - Перспективы развития мировой экономики - Бюллетень; 24 января 2012 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Перспективы развития мировой экономики - Бюллетень; 24 января 2012 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Section 1 — La recuperación mundial se estanca, los riesgos a la baja se intensifican\n  - Section 1 — La recuperación mundial se estanca, los riesgos a la baja se intensifican (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Section 1 — La recuperación mundial se estanca, los riesgos a la baja se intensifican (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Webcast\n- Transcript\n- Driving the Global Economy with the Brakes On\n- http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=1405275153001\n- Reports\n- Databases\n- Research at the IMF\n- discussion forum\n- September 2011 World Economic Outlook (WEO)\n- WEO Update\n- January 2012 Fiscal Monitor Update\n- January 2012 Global Financial Stability Report Update\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/global-recovery-stalls-downside-risks-intensify"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/global-recovery-stalls-downside-risks-intensify/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/global-recovery-stalls-downside-risks-intensify/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/global-recovery-stalls-downside-risks-intensify/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: January 24, 2012",
    "Series: World Economic Outlook",
    "Global output is projected to expand by 3¼ percent in 2012 — a downward revision of about ¾ percentage point relative to the September 2011 World Economic Outlook (WEO).",
    "Global GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 3½ percent during Q3 2011.",
    "Table 1 key year-over-year projections (percent change unless noted):",
    "Primary driver: intensifying strains in the euro area interacting with financial fragilities elsewhere (widened sovereign spreads, bank funding dried up, bank deleveraging).",
    "Financial market developments:",
    "Regional outlook highlights:",
    "Euro-area-driven downside scenario assumptions and impacts:",
    "Other key risks:",
    "Oil: baseline petroleum price projection for 2012 is broadly unchanged since September 2011 ($99 a barrel compared with $100).",
    "Non-oil commodity prices: projected to fall by 14 percent in 2012; near-term risks to these prices skewed to the downside.",
    "Inflation:",
    "Overarching requirements for a more resilient recovery:",
    "Fiscal adjustment:",
    "Liquidity and monetary policy:",
    "Bank deleveraging and financial repair:",
    "Restoring confidence in the euro area:",
    "Policy guidance for emerging and developing economies:",
    "Collective action and structural reforms:",
    "**Figure 1.  Global GDP Growth**",
    "**Figure 2.  Recent Economic Indicators**",
    "**Figure 3.  Recent Financial Market Developments**",
    "**Figure 4. WEO Downside Scenario**",
    "**Figure 5.  Net Fund Flows to Emerging Markets**",
    "**0112a**",
    "**世界经济展望最新预测 2012年1月——全球复苏停滞，下行风险加剧**",
    "**Mise à jour des Perspectives de l’économie mondiale; le 24 janvier 2012; FMI**",
    "**世界経済見通し改訂見通し　2012年1月　--　世界経済は失速、強まる下振れリスク**",
    "**Figure 1.  Global GDP Growth**",
    "**Figure 2. Recent Economic Indicators**",
    "**_fig3pdf**",
    "**_fig4pdf**",
    "**Figure 5.  Net Fund Flows to Emerging Markets**",
    "**_0112pdf**",
    "**Перспективы развития мировой экономики - Бюллетень; 24 января 2012 года**",
    "**Section 1 — La recuperación mundial se estanca, los riesgos a la baja se intensifican**",
    "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)",
    "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)",
    "[Webcast](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=1411840313001)",
    "[Transcript](http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2012/tr012412.htm)",
    "[Driving the Global Economy with the Brakes On](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2012/01/24/driving-the-global-economy-with-the-brakes-on/)",
    "[http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=1405275153001](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=1405275153001)",
    "[Reports](http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)",
    "[Databases](http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28)",
    "[Research at the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/res/index.htm)",
    "[discussion forum](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/forum/index.htm)",
    "[September 2011 World Economic Outlook (WEO)](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/index.htm)",
    "[WEO Update](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/update/01/index.htm)",
    "[January 2012 Fiscal Monitor Update](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2012/update/01/fmindex.htm)",
    "[January 2012 Global Financial Stability Report Update](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fmu/eng/2012/01/index.htm)"
  ],
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