## IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- April 2005

_World Economic Outlook, April 7, 2005_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- April 2005](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/globalization-and-external-imbalances)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/globalization-and-external-imbalances/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/globalization-and-external-imbalances/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/globalization-and-external-imbalances/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: April 7, 2005
- Series: World Economic Outlook

---

### Overview
- Title: Globalization and External Imbalances
- Type: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
- Date elements present in the document: April 13, 2005; April 2005
- Languages indicated: 中文, English
- Document navigation items listed: The World Economic Outlook; Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference; Other issues of the World Economic Outlook; Research at the IMF; Email notification sign-up; Modify your profile
- Format notes: Table of Contents with links to the full text in PDF format; instruction to use Adobe Acrobat Reader to view PDF files; Webcasts—Technical Information

### Contents and Major Sections
- Assumptions and Conventions (111 kb pdf file)
- Preface
- Foreword
- Chapter I. Economic Prospects and Policies (525 kb pdf file)
  - Country/regional headings listed under Chapter I:
    - United States and Canada: More Ambitious fiscal Consolidation is Needed in the United States
    - Western Europe: Renewed Concerns About the Strength of the Recovery
    - Japan: Will Growth Resume?
    - Emerging Asia and the Pacific: A Continuing Expansion, but External Surpluses Persist
    - Latin America: Is Fiscal Policy on the Right Track at Last?
    - Emerging Europe: Current Account Deficits Remain a Challenge
    - Commonwealth of Independent States: Has Disinflation Bottomed Out?
    - Africa: Turning the Corner?
    - The Middle East: How Is the Recycling of Oil Revenues Affecting the Global Economy?
  - Appendix 1.1 Recent Developments in Commodity Markets
  - References
- Chapter II. Two Current Issues Facing Developing Countries (274 kb pdf file)
  - Workers' Remittances and Economic Development
  - Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing Countries
  - Appendix 2.1. Workers' Remittances and Economic Development: Sample Composition, Data Sources, and Methods
  - Appendix 2.2. Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Country Coverage, Methodology, and Data
- Chapter III. Financial Globalization (311 kb pdf file)
  - Real Globalization
  - The Effects of Globalization: An Integrated Perspective
  - Summary and Policy Implications
  - Appendix 3.1. Net Foreign Assets, Valuation, and Adjustment: A Glossary Of Terms
  - Appendix 3.2. Econometric Evidence on the Valuation Channel
  - Appendix 3.3. Details on Rigidities and Monetary Policy Rule Used in the GEM Simulation
- Chapter IV. Will the Oil Market Continue to Be Tight? (272 kb pdf file)
  - Basic Stylized Facts
  - Medium- and Long-Term Projections
  - Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
  - Appendix 4.1. Oil Market Prospects: Data and Modeling Strategy
- Annex: Summing Up by the Acting Chair (56 kb pdf file)
- Statistical Appendix (376 kb pdf file)
  - Assumptions
  - What's New
  - Data and Conventions
  - Classifications of Countries
  - List of Tables (multiple table groups covering Output, Inflation, Financial Policies, Foreign Trade, Current Account Transactions, Balance of Payments and External Financing, External Financing, External Debt, Flow of Funds, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario)
- Boxes (84 kb pdf file) — box titles include:
  - 1.1 The Indian Ocean Tsunami: Impact on South Asian Economies
  - 1.2 What Are the risks from Low U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates?
  - 1.3 The Ending of Global Textile Trade Quotas
  - 1.4 What Progress Has Been Made in Implementing Policies to Reduce Global Imbalances?
  - 1.5 How Does Macroeconomic Instability Stifle Sub-Saharan African Growth?
  - 1.6 How Should Middle Eastern and Central Asian Oil Exporters Use their Oil Revenues?
  - 2.1 Workers' Remittances and Emigration in the Caribbean
  - 2.2 Regulating Remittances
  - 2.3 Why Is Volatility Harmful?
  - 2.4 Balance of Payments Data on Workers' Remittances
  - 3.1 External Imbalances Then and Now
  - 3.2 Measuring a Country's Net External Position
  - 3.3 Financial Globalization and the Conduct of Macroeconomic Policies
  - 3.4 Monetary Policy in a Globalized World
  - 4.1 Should Countries Worry About Oil Price Fluctuations?
  - 4.2 Data Quality in the Oil Market

### Key Data, Tables, and Figures (inventory as listed)
- Tables and table groups include:
  - Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
  - Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows
  - Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
  - Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment
  - Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
  - Sector- and region-specific table groups (Selected Asian Economies, Selected Western Hemisphere Countries, Emerging Europe, CIS, Selected African Countries, Selected Middle Eastern Countries)
  - 1.12 Global Oil Demand by Region
  - 1.13 Nonenergy Commodity Prices
  - 1.14 Relative Forecasting Performance: Futures Versus Random Walk Model
  - Regression and volatility tables under Chapters II and III, including "Regression Results: Impact of Workers' Remittances", "Contributors to Volatility in Real Per Capita Output Growth", "Gross Assets and Liabilities, 1980-2003", "Overseas Portfolio Investment", and multiple calibration and simulation tables in Chapter III and Chapter IV (e.g., 4.4 Projections of Non-OPEC Oil Supply; 4.5 Projected Oil Demand, Non-OPEC Supply, and Call on OPEC)
- Figures and figure groups include:
  - Global Indicators; Current and Forward-Looking Indicators; Global Exchange Rate Developments; Global Inflation; Developments in Mature Financial Markets; Emerging Market Financial Conditions; Global Outlook
  - Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the Major Advanced Countries; Household and Corporate Balance Sheets
  - Region- and topic-specific figures (United States, Western Europe, Japan, Emerging Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe, CIS, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East)
  - Oil market and commodity figures: Oil Prices, Future, and Production; Commercial Oil Inventories and World Refinery Capacity; Nonenergy Commodities; Semiconductor Market; Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Prices
  - Remittances and related figures: Workers' Remittances and Other Foreign Exchange Flows to Developing Countries; Remittances: Sources and Destinations; Developing Countries: 20 Largest Recipients of Remittances; Cost of Sending $200 in Remittances from the United States
  - Volatility and globalization figures: Volatility of Output Growth; Volatility of Output Growth by Region; Global Factor and Actual Global Growth; Financial Globalization Trends, 1970-2003; External Current Account Balances and Net External Positions, 1970-2003; Global Rebalancing Under Benign Financial Market Conditions; Global Rebalancing Under Adverse Financial Market Conditions
  - Oil-specific figures: Oil Consumption; Oil Consumption per Unit of Output; Oil Production and Reserves; OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply; Long-Term Projections of Oil Demand; Vehicle Ownership and Per Capita Income; Profitability of Various OPEC Market Strategies; Oil Demand in Advanced Economies; Oil Demand in Emerging Market and Developing Countries; Decomposition of Oil Price Movements

### Analytical Focus and Policy Content (as structured in the source)
- Chapter-level analytical themes explicitly present:
  - Economic prospects and policy analysis across major advanced economies, emerging markets, and regions
  - Two current issues for developing countries: Workers' Remittances and Output Volatility
  - Financial Globalization: trends, determinants, valuation/valuation-channel econometrics, implications for macroeconomic policy, simulation details (GEM)
  - Oil market analysis: Basic stylized facts, medium- and long-term projections, conclusions and policy recommendations
- Explicit mention of sections dedicated to:
  - Summary and Policy Implications (Chapter III)
  - Conclusions and Policy Recommendations (Chapter IV)
  - Appendices providing data, methodology, and modeling strategies for core analyses

### Document Access and Technical Notes
- Individual PDF file sizes as listed in the Table of Contents: 111 kb; 525 kb; 274 kb; 311 kb; 272 kb; 56 kb; 376 kb; 84 kb
- Instruction: "Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view PDF files."

*IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- April 2005*

---

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- [Fig1 22 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp1data/fig1_22.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig1 23 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp1data/fig1_23.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig1 3 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp1data/fig1_3.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig1 4 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp1data/fig1_4.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig1 5 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp1data/fig1_5.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig1 6 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp1data/fig1_6.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig1 7 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp1data/fig1_7.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig1 8 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp1data/fig1_8.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig1 9 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp1data/fig1_9.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Box2 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/box2_1.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Box2 3 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/box2_3.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_1.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 10 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_10.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 11 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_11.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 12 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_12.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 13 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_13.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 2 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_2.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 3 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_3.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 4 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_4.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 5 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_5.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 6 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_6.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 7 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_7.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 8 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_8.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig2 9 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp2data/fig2_9.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Box3 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/box3_1.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Box3 2 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/box3_2.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Box3 3 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/box3_3.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_1.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 10 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_10.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 11 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_11.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 12 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_12.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 13 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_13.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 2 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_2.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 3 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_3.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 4 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_4.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 5 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_5.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 6 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_6.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 7 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_7.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 8 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_8.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig3 9 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp3data/fig3_9.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Box4 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/box4_1.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Box4 2 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/box4_2.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig4 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_1.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig4 10 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_10.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig4 11 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_11.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig4 2 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_2.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig4 3 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_3.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig4 4 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_4.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig4 5 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_5.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig4 6 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_6.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig4 7 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_7.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig4 8 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_8.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}
- [Fig4 9 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_9.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"}

---

## References

- [Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference](https://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2005/tr050413.htm)
- [Other issues of the World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)
- [Research at the IMF](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/res/index.htm)
- [International Monetary Fund](https://www.imf.org/external/index.htm)
- [Ordering Information](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=18035.0)
- [Disclaimer](https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm)
- [Adobe Acrobat Reader](https://www.imf.org/adobe)
- [Technical Information](https://www.imf.org/external/help/techwc.htm)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/globalization-and-external-imbalances_