{ "title": "IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Housing and the Business Cycle, April 2008", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, April 3, 2008", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/housing-and-the-business-cycle", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/housing-and-the-business-cycle", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/housing-and-the-business-cycle/index.md", "summary": "The semiannual World Economic Outlook reviews global macroeconomic developments, forecasts growth, and cites risks. Table of contents", "publishDate": "2008-04-03", "series": "World Economic Outlook", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview of the WEO publication", "content": "- The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups, and in many individual countries.\n- It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects.\n- It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.\n- Readability and access:\n - View the Full Text of the WEO (6 MB pdf file)\n - Press Briefing on the World Economic Outlook: April 9, 2008\n - WEO Analytic Chapters Press Briefing–April 3, 2008\n - Language summaries available: عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Русский" }, { "heading": "Structure and major themes covered in the April 2008 WEO", "content": "- Contents sections and major chapters included:\n - Assumptions and Conventions; Preface; Foreword; Executive Summary\n - Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies\n - Topics: Overview of Recent Developments and Prospects; Financial Market Turbulence; Can Emerging and Developing Economies Decouple?; Outlook and Risks for the Global Economy; Policy Challenges in a Multipolar World\n - Appendices: Implications of New PPP Estimates for Measuring Global Growth; Commodity Market Developments and Prospects\n - Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives\n - Country/regional focuses include: United States and Canada; Western Europe; Advanced Asia; Emerging Asia; Latin America and the Caribbean; Emerging Europe; Commonwealth of Independent States; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East\n - Chapter 3. The Changing Housing Cycle and the Implications for Monetary Policy\n - Chapter 3 subsections listed: Developments in Housing Finance; The Housing Sector and the Business Cycle; Housing Finance and Spillovers from Housing; Housing Finance and Housing as a Transmission Channel for Monetary Policy; Should Changes in the Housing Cycle Affect the Conduct of Monetary Policy?; Conclusions\n - Appendix 3.1. Data and Methodology\n - Chapter 4. Climate Change and the Global Economy\n - Topics: How Will Climate Change Affect Economies?; How Can Countries Best Adapt to Climate Change?; How Can Countries Effectively and Efficiently Mitigate Climate Change?\n - Appendix 4.1. The G-Cubed Model, Baseline Assumptions, and Other Models in the Climate Change Literature\n - Chapter 5. Globalization, Commodity Prices, and Developing Countries\n - Topics: Commodity Prices and Patterns of Integration; Globalization and Commodity Price Cycles; Explaining the Patterns\n - Appendix 5.1. Data and Methodology\n - Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2008\n - Statistical Appendix (Assumptions; What's New; Data and Conventions; Classification of Countries; General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification)" }, { "heading": "Chapter 3 (Housing and the Business Cycle) — scope and analytical components", "content": "- Principal chapter focus:\n - The Changing Housing Cycle and the Implications for Monetary Policy\n- Substantive analytic components:\n - Developments in Housing Finance\n - The Housing Sector and the Business Cycle\n - Housing Finance and Spillovers from Housing\n - Housing Finance and Housing as a Transmission Channel for Monetary Policy\n - Should Changes in the Housing Cycle Affect the Conduct of Monetary Policy?\n - Conclusions\n- Supporting materials for housing analysis:\n - Appendix 3.1. Data and Methodology\n - Boxes (including Box 3.1 Assessing Vulnerabilities to Housing Market Corrections)\n - Tables and Figures relevant to housing and monetary transmission, including:\n - Institutional Differences in National Mortgage Markets and the Mortgage Market Index\n - Abnormal Contributions to GDP Growth Weakness One Year before Recessions\n - Features of House Price Cycles\n - Forecast Variance Decomposition: Housing Demand Shocks—Average across Countries\n - Optimal Coefficients in the Taylor Rule\n - Estimates of the Error-Correction Model of Consumption\n - Mortgage Debt and Financial Innovation\n - Correlation of Real House Prices and Real Residential Investment with the Output Gap\n - Labor Market Characteristics and the Contribution of Residential Investment to the Business Cycle\n - Mortgage Market Index, Consumption and House Price Correlation, and the Long-Run Marginal Propensity to Consume out of Housing Wealth\n - Share of Output Variation Explained by Housing Demand Shocks\n - Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism\n - Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks on Output and Housing Sector Variables in the United States\n - Elasticity of Real Residential Investment, Real House Prices, and Output to a 100-Basis-Point Increase in Short-Term Interest Rates\n - Interest Rate Elasticity of Real Residential Investment, Real House Prices, and Output and the Mortgage Market Index\n - Monetary Policy Counterfactuals\n - Macroeconomic Model with Housing as Collateral: Responses of Output and Consumption to Shocks for Different Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratios\n - Macroeconomic Model with Housing as Collateral: Response of Nominal Interest Rates to a Positive Housing Demand Shock and a Negative Financial Shock for Various Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratios" }, { "heading": "Key cross-chapter analytical tools, indicators, and empirical elements", "content": "- Boxes across chapters addressing timely policy and empirical questions (selected examples):\n - 1.1 Is There a Credit Crunch?\n - 1.2 Depreciation of the U.S. Dollar: Causes and Consequences\n - 2.1 When Does Fiscal Stimulus Work?\n - 3.1 Assessing Vulnerabilities to Housing Market Corrections\n - 4.1 Rising Car Ownership in Emerging Economies: Implications for Climate Change\n - 5.1 How Does the Globalization of Trade and Finance Affect Growth? Theory and Evidence\n- Tables and figures used for projections, risks, and model outcomes span topics such as:\n - Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections; Shares of Global GDP, 2007; Global Oil Demand and Production by Region; Food, Fuel, and Headline Inflation\n - Global Indicators; Current and Forward-Looking Indicators; Global Inflation; Measures of Monetary Policy and Liquidity; Developments in Mature Credit Markets; Mature Financial and Housing Market Indicators\n - Two Scenarios for the Global Economy; Risks to the Global Outlook\n - Climate change emission, damage, and mitigation model outputs (multiple figures and tables)" }, { "heading": "Access and engagement features", "content": "- WEO Data and engagement:\n - World Economic Outlook Database\n - Simon Johnson's IMF Research Blog\n - Have a question about WEO Data? Visit our Discussion Forum\n - IMF Data Mapper®\n - Research at the IMF\n - Email notification sign-up: Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n - Modify your profile\n\nSource: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Housing and the Business Cycle, April 2008 (web landing page).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Box1 1 1 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Box1 1 2 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Box1 1 3 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Box1 1 4 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Box1 4 1 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Box1 4 2 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Box1 5 1 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Box1 6 1 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig1 01 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig1 02 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig1 03 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig1 04 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type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Fig59pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 3sumpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 4sumpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 5sumpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Annexpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- C1pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- C2pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- C3pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- C4pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- C5pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Exesumpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Forewordpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Frontpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Prefacepdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Seltoppdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Statapppdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Tablespdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Tblpartbpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Textpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Sumrpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- C1r (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Sumspdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- C1s (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- World Economic Outlook Database\n- Transcript\n- Transcript\n- Simon Johnson's IMF Research Blog\n- Discussion Forum\n- Other issues of the World Economic Outlook\n- Frequently Asked Questions: WEO\n- IMF Data Mapper®\n- Research at the IMF\n- Video Briefing\n- Video\n- Video\n- Video\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/housing-and-the-business-cycle" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/housing-and-the-business-cycle/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/housing-and-the-business-cycle/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/housing-and-the-business-cycle/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: April 3, 2008", "Series: World Economic Outlook", "The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups, and in many individual countries.", "It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects.", "It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.", "Readability and access:", "Contents sections and major chapters included:", "Principal chapter focus:", "Substantive analytic components:", "Supporting materials for housing analysis:", "Boxes across chapters addressing timely policy and empirical questions (selected examples):", "Tables and figures used for projections, risks, and model outcomes span topics such as:", "WEO Data and engagement:", "[Box1 1 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/box1_1_1.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Box1 1 2 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/box1_1_2.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Box1 1 3 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/box1_1_3.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Box1 1 4 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/box1_1_4.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Box1 4 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/box1_4_1.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Box1 4 2 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/box1_4_2.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Box1 5 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/box1_5_1.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Box1 6 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/box1_6_1.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", 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WEO](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/faq.htm)", "[IMF Data Mapper®](http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php)", "[Research at the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/res/index.htm)", "[Video Briefing](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1127)", "[Video](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1107)", "[Video](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1108)", "[Video](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1109)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Box1 1 1", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/Box1_1_1.csv", "binary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/box1_1_1.csv", "mime": "text/csv" } }, { "title": "Box1 1 2", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/Box1_1_2.csv", "binary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/box1_1_2.csv", "mime": "text/csv" } }, { 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"http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/fig1_18.csv", "binary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/fig1_18.csv", "mime": "text/csv" } }, { "title": "Fig1 19", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/fig1_19.csv", "binary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/fig1_19.csv", "mime": "text/csv" } }, { "title": "Fig1 20", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/fig1_20.csv", "binary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/fig1_20.csv", "mime": "text/csv" } }, { "title": "Fig1 21", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/fig1_21.csv", "binary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c1/fig1_21.csv", "mime": "text/csv" } }, { "title": "Box2 1 1", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c2/Box2_1_1.csv", "binary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c2/box2_1_1.csv", "mime": "text/csv" } }, { "title": "Box2 1 2", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c2/Box2_1_2.csv", "binary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c2/box2_1_2.csv", "mime": "text/csv" } }, { "title": "Box2 2 1", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c2/Box2_2_1.csv", "binary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c2/box2_2_1.csv", "mime": "text/csv" } }, { "title": "Box2 2 2", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c2/Box2_2_2.csv", "binary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c2/box2_2_2.csv", "mime": "text/csv" } }, { "title": "Fig2 01", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c2/fig2_01.csv", "binary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c2/fig2_01.csv", "mime": "text/csv" } }, { "title": "Fig2 02", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/c2/fig2_02.csv", 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