## IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Housing and the Business Cycle, April 2008

_World Economic Outlook, April 3, 2008_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Housing and the Business Cycle, April 2008](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/housing-and-the-business-cycle)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/housing-and-the-business-cycle/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/housing-and-the-business-cycle/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/housing-and-the-business-cycle/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: April 3, 2008
- Series: World Economic Outlook

---

### Overview of the WEO publication
- The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups, and in many individual countries.
- It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects.
- It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.
- Readability and access:
  - View the Full Text of the WEO (6 MB pdf file)
  - Press Briefing on the World Economic Outlook: April 9, 2008
  - WEO Analytic Chapters Press Briefing–April 3, 2008
  - Language summaries available: عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Русский

### Structure and major themes covered in the April 2008 WEO
- Contents sections and major chapters included:
  - Assumptions and Conventions; Preface; Foreword; Executive Summary
  - Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies
    - Topics: Overview of Recent Developments and Prospects; Financial Market Turbulence; Can Emerging and Developing Economies Decouple?; Outlook and Risks for the Global Economy; Policy Challenges in a Multipolar World
    - Appendices: Implications of New PPP Estimates for Measuring Global Growth; Commodity Market Developments and Prospects
  - Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives
    - Country/regional focuses include: United States and Canada; Western Europe; Advanced Asia; Emerging Asia; Latin America and the Caribbean; Emerging Europe; Commonwealth of Independent States; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East
  - Chapter 3. The Changing Housing Cycle and the Implications for Monetary Policy
    - Chapter 3 subsections listed: Developments in Housing Finance; The Housing Sector and the Business Cycle; Housing Finance and Spillovers from Housing; Housing Finance and Housing as a Transmission Channel for Monetary Policy; Should Changes in the Housing Cycle Affect the Conduct of Monetary Policy?; Conclusions
    - Appendix 3.1. Data and Methodology
  - Chapter 4. Climate Change and the Global Economy
    - Topics: How Will Climate Change Affect Economies?; How Can Countries Best Adapt to Climate Change?; How Can Countries Effectively and Efficiently Mitigate Climate Change?
    - Appendix 4.1. The G-Cubed Model, Baseline Assumptions, and Other Models in the Climate Change Literature
  - Chapter 5. Globalization, Commodity Prices, and Developing Countries
    - Topics: Commodity Prices and Patterns of Integration; Globalization and Commodity Price Cycles; Explaining the Patterns
    - Appendix 5.1. Data and Methodology
  - Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2008
  - Statistical Appendix (Assumptions; What's New; Data and Conventions; Classification of Countries; General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification)

### Chapter 3 (Housing and the Business Cycle) — scope and analytical components
- Principal chapter focus:
  - The Changing Housing Cycle and the Implications for Monetary Policy
- Substantive analytic components:
  - Developments in Housing Finance
  - The Housing Sector and the Business Cycle
  - Housing Finance and Spillovers from Housing
  - Housing Finance and Housing as a Transmission Channel for Monetary Policy
  - Should Changes in the Housing Cycle Affect the Conduct of Monetary Policy?
  - Conclusions
- Supporting materials for housing analysis:
  - Appendix 3.1. Data and Methodology
  - Boxes (including Box 3.1 Assessing Vulnerabilities to Housing Market Corrections)
  - Tables and Figures relevant to housing and monetary transmission, including:
    - Institutional Differences in National Mortgage Markets and the Mortgage Market Index
    - Abnormal Contributions to GDP Growth Weakness One Year before Recessions
    - Features of House Price Cycles
    - Forecast Variance Decomposition: Housing Demand Shocks—Average across Countries
    - Optimal Coefficients in the Taylor Rule
    - Estimates of the Error-Correction Model of Consumption
    - Mortgage Debt and Financial Innovation
    - Correlation of Real House Prices and Real Residential Investment with the Output Gap
    - Labor Market Characteristics and the Contribution of Residential Investment to the Business Cycle
    - Mortgage Market Index, Consumption and House Price Correlation, and the Long-Run Marginal Propensity to Consume out of Housing Wealth
    - Share of Output Variation Explained by Housing Demand Shocks
    - Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism
    - Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks on Output and Housing Sector Variables in the United States
    - Elasticity of Real Residential Investment, Real House Prices, and Output to a 100-Basis-Point Increase in Short-Term Interest Rates
    - Interest Rate Elasticity of Real Residential Investment, Real House Prices, and Output and the Mortgage Market Index
    - Monetary Policy Counterfactuals
    - Macroeconomic Model with Housing as Collateral: Responses of Output and Consumption to Shocks for Different Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratios
    - Macroeconomic Model with Housing as Collateral: Response of Nominal Interest Rates to a Positive Housing Demand Shock and a Negative Financial Shock for Various Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratios

### Key cross-chapter analytical tools, indicators, and empirical elements
- Boxes across chapters addressing timely policy and empirical questions (selected examples):
  - 1.1 Is There a Credit Crunch?
  - 1.2 Depreciation of the U.S. Dollar: Causes and Consequences
  - 2.1 When Does Fiscal Stimulus Work?
  - 3.1 Assessing Vulnerabilities to Housing Market Corrections
  - 4.1 Rising Car Ownership in Emerging Economies: Implications for Climate Change
  - 5.1 How Does the Globalization of Trade and Finance Affect Growth? Theory and Evidence
- Tables and figures used for projections, risks, and model outcomes span topics such as:
  - Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections; Shares of Global GDP, 2007; Global Oil Demand and Production by Region; Food, Fuel, and Headline Inflation
  - Global Indicators; Current and Forward-Looking Indicators; Global Inflation; Measures of Monetary Policy and Liquidity; Developments in Mature Credit Markets; Mature Financial and Housing Market Indicators
  - Two Scenarios for the Global Economy; Risks to the Global Outlook
  - Climate change emission, damage, and mitigation model outputs (multiple figures and tables)

### Access and engagement features
- WEO Data and engagement:
  - World Economic Outlook Database
  - Simon Johnson's IMF Research Blog
  - Have a question about WEO Data? Visit our Discussion Forum
  - IMF Data Mapper®
  - Research at the IMF
  - Email notification sign-up: Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.
  - Modify your profile

*Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Housing and the Business Cycle, April 2008 (web landing page).*

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## Content in this bundle

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---

## References

- [World Economic Outlook Database](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/weodata/index.aspx)
- [Transcript](http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2008/tr080409.htm)
- [Transcript](http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2008/tr080403.htm)
- [Simon Johnson's IMF Research Blog](http://blog-research.imf.org/)
- [Discussion Forum](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/forum/index.htm)
- [Other issues of the World Economic Outlook](http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)
- [Frequently Asked Questions: WEO](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/faq.htm)
- [IMF Data Mapper®](http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php)
- [Research at the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/res/index.htm)
- [Video Briefing](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1127)
- [Video](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1107)
- [Video](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1108)
- [Video](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?eventID=1109)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/housing-and-the-business-cycle_