## IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2014: Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties — Table of Contents _World Economic Outlook, October 7, 2014_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2014: Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties — Table of Contents](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/legacies-clouds-uncertainties) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/legacies-clouds-uncertainties/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/legacies-clouds-uncertainties/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/legacies-clouds-uncertainties/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: October 7, 2014 - Series: World Economic Outlook --- ### Overview and Key Projections - Global growth forecast for this year revised downward to 3.3 percent, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April 2014 World Economic Outlook (WEO). - Global growth projection for 2015 lowered to 3.8 percent. - After a slowdown in the first half of 2014, global growth is forecast to strengthen to 3.5 percent in the second half of 2014 and 3.8 percent in 2015. - Recovery is uneven and increasingly country specific; advanced-economy legacies of the precrisis boom and subsequent crisis (including high private and public debt) continue to weigh on recovery. ### Risks and Downside Scenarios - Downside risks have increased since the spring. - Short-term risks include: - a worsening of geopolitical tensions; - a reversal of recent risk spread and volatility compression in financial markets. - Medium-term risks include: - stagnation and low potential growth in advanced economies; - a decline in potential growth in emerging markets. - Specific shocks that would reduce global growth: - production disruptions or sharply higher global oil prices—due to geopolitical tensions; - an unexpected tightening in financial conditions owing to higher-than-expected U.S. long-term interest rates or increased risk aversion. - Over the medium term, protracted weak demand in advanced economies could result in lower growth everywhere, including through negative supply-side effects. ### Policy Priorities and Recommendations - Raising actual and potential growth is a priority given increased risks. - Advanced economies: - require continued support from monetary policy; - need fiscal adjustment attuned in pace and composition to supporting both the recovery and long-term growth. - in a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can provide short-term demand support and help boost potential output in the medium term. - Emerging markets: - scope for macroeconomic policies to support growth varies across countries and regions; - space is limited in countries with external vulnerabilities. - General, urgent need across advanced, emerging market, and developing economies for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. ### Chapter Findings: Public Investment (Chapter 3) - Increased public infrastructure investment raises output in both the short and long term, particularly: - during periods of economic slack; - when investment efficiency is high. - Time is right for an infrastructure push in countries with infrastructure needs because: - borrowing costs are low; - demand is weak in advanced economies; - there are infrastructure bottlenecks in many emerging market and developing economies. - Debt-financed projects could have large output effects without increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio, if clearly identified infrastructure needs are met through efficient investment. ### Chapter Findings: Global Imbalances (Chapter 4) - Global current account (“flow”) imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006, and their configuration has changed markedly. - The large U.S. deficit and surpluses in China and Japan have more than halved. - Some surpluses remain large, especially in some European economies and oil exporters; some advanced commodity exporters and major emerging market economies have moved to deficit. - The reduction of large flow imbalances has diminished systemic risks to the global economy, but two concerns remain (as discussed in the chapter). ### Structure and Supporting Material - The WEO includes: - chapters on recent developments, prospects, and policy priorities; country and regional perspectives; public investment effects; and global imbalances; - special features (for example, Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Natural Gas); - extensive boxes, tables, figures, data, appendixes, and a Statistical Appendix detailing projections, assumptions, and methodology. *IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2014: Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties — Table of Contents* --- ## Content in this bundle - [Suma (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/pdf/_suma.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Texta (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/pdf/_texta.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - 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[Fig4 2 3 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_2_3.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 2 4 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_2_4.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 2 5 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_2_5.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 2 6 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_2_6.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 2 7 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_2_7.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 2 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_2.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 3 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_3.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 4a (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_4a.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 4b (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_4b.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 5 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_5.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 6 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_6.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 7 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_7.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 8 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_8.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} - [Fig4 9 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/c4/fig4_9.csv){rel="external" type="text/csv"} --- ## References - [Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/Table1_1.jpg) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/legacies-clouds-uncertainties_