{
  "title": "IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update -- Mild Slowdown of the Global Expansion, and Increasing Risks, June 2011",
  "publication": "World Economic Outlook, June 17, 2011",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/mild-slowdown-of-the-global-expansion-and-increasing-risks",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/mild-slowdown-of-the-global-expansion-and-increasing-risks",
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  "summary": "Activity is slowing down temporarily, and downside risks have increased again. The global expansion remains unbalanced. Growth in many advanced economies is still weak, considering the depth of the recession. In addition, the mild slowdown observed in the second quarter of 2011 is not reassuring.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Global growth and near-term outlook",
      "content": "- Global activity expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3 percent in the first quarter of 2011.\n- Global activity is projected to slow in the second quarter of 2011, then reaccelerate in the second half of 2011; baseline projections for 2011–12 are broadly unchanged relative to the April 2011 WEO.\n- Forward-looking indicators (manufacturing purchasing managers indices) suggest activity softened in Q2 2011, especially in many advanced economies.\n- Key drivers of the slowdown in Q2 2011:\n  - Supply disruptions from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.\n  - Transitory factors in the United States, including higher commodity prices, bad weather, and supply chain disruptions.\n  - Earlier oil price increases cutting into households’ real incomes and dampening private consumption.\n- Fundamental growth drivers remaining in place: still-accommodative macroeconomic conditions, pent-up demand for durables and investment, and strong potential growth in emerging and developing economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and projections (as presented)",
      "content": "- Table 1 highlights (Percent change unless otherwise noted):\n  - World Output: 2009 = –0.5; 2010 = 5.1; 2011 = 4.3; 2012 = 4.5; Q4 over Q4 projections: 2011 = 4.7; 2012 = 4.4.\n  - Advanced Economies: 2009 = –3.4; 2010 = 3.0; 2011 = 2.2; 2012 = 2.6; Q4 over Q4 projections: 2011 = 2.7; 2012 = 2.3.\n  - United States: 2009 = –2.6; 2010 = 2.9; 2011 = 2.5; Q4 over Q4 projections: 2011 = 2.8.\n  - Euro Area: 2009 = –4.1; 2010 = 1.8; 2011 = 2.0; 2012 = 1.7.\n  - Japan: 2009 = –6.3; 2010 = 4.0; 2011 = –0.7; 2012 = –2.1.\n  - Emerging and Developing Economies (quarterly estimates/projections account for ~80%): 2009 = 7.4; 2010 = 6.6; 2011 = 6.4; 2012 = 7.5; Q4 over Q4 projections: 2011 = 6.9.\n  - Developing Asia: 2009 = 7.2; 2010 = 9.6; 2011 = 9.2; 2012 = 8.6.\n  - China: 2009 = 10.3; 2010 = 9.5; 2011 = 9.8; 2012 = 9.4.\n  - India: 2009 = 6.8; 2010 = 10.4; 2011 = 8.2; 2012 = 7.8.\n  - World Trade Volume (goods and services): 2009 = –10.8; 2010 = 12.4; 2011 = 6.7.\n  - Commodity prices (U.S. dollars): Oil — 2010 average price = $79.03 a barrel; assumed price based on futures markets = $106.30 in 2011 and $105.25 in 2012.\n  - Global inflation: rose from 3½ percent in Q4 2010 to 4 percent in Q1 2011.\n- Regional snapshots:\n  - Latin America and the Caribbean: region expanded by more than 6 percent in 2010; LAC growth projected to moderate to about 4½ percent in 2011 and converge to about 4 percent over the next two years.\n  - Sub-Saharan Africa: activity projected to continue strengthening with robust domestic demand and benefits from elevated commodity prices.\n  - Middle East and North Africa: prospects clouded by political and social unrest; outlook improved for some oil and mineral exporters."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Inflation, commodities, and financial conditions",
      "content": "- Inflation:\n  - Global inflation pickup driven mainly by larger-than-expected increases in commodity prices; core inflation also rose across a number of economies.\n  - Among advanced economies: core inflation subdued in the United States and Japan, rose moderately in the euro area.\n  - Among emerging and developing economies: inflation pressures increasingly broad-based.\n- Commodity markets:\n  - Commodity prices surged through April 2011, fell in May, and stabilized afterward.\n  - Crude oil prices briefly approached $120 a barrel in April 2011, fell sharply in May, and then averaged about $107 a barrel (close to April 2011 WEO assumptions).\n  - Food prices stabilized beginning in early 2011 after weather-related supply shocks in 2010.\n- Financial volatility:\n  - Global financial conditions became more volatile since late May 2011, reflecting market concerns about sovereign risks in the euro area periphery and softening U.S. activity.\n  - Symptoms: rising sovereign credit default swap spreads in certain euro area economies, retreating global equity prices, and falling long-term bond yields in major advanced economies.\n  - June 2011 GFSR Market Update emphasizes insufficient pace of banking system repair (notably in Europe) and risks related to releveraging in market segments.\n  - For many emerging and developing economies, the financial environment remained accommodative but capital inflows were fickle; some large emerging economies experienced rapid credit growth while others tightened monetary policy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and scenarios",
      "content": "- Balance of risks is tilted to the downside relative to April 2011 WEO.\n- Elevated downside risks include:\n  - Spillovers from further deterioration in market confidence in the euro area periphery.\n  - Setbacks to the U.S. recovery.\n  - Reversal of capital inflows to emerging economies if global financial conditions tighten.\n  - Banks in advanced economies face large near-term refinancing needs; a squeeze on wholesale funding could tighten lending standards.\n  - Near-term risks from sharper or more prolonged negative spillovers from Japan.\n- Commodity-related risks:\n  - Risks for commodity markets are smaller than in April 2011 but still point down for growth; unrest in the Middle East may raise oil prices; low inventories and weather risks pose near-term upside risks for food prices.\n- Emerging-market overheating risks:\n  - Elevated inflation pressures and high asset prices in some key emerging economies increase the risk of hard landings if policy rates remain low."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and priorities",
      "content": "- Advanced economies:\n  - Implement credible and well-paced consolidation programs focused on bolstering medium-term debt sustainability—especially the United States and Japan.\n  - For the United States: immediately address the debt ceiling and launch a deficit reduction plan that includes entitlement reform and revenue-raising tax reform; if recovery weakens, modify the pace of adjustment within the envelope of a credible medium-term plan.\n  - For Japan: make progress in tax and entitlement reforms to address debt dynamics; ensure fiscal response to the earthquake is consistent with medium-term sustainability.\n  - Address financial sector vulnerabilities—particularly in several European economies—through ambitious structural reforms to boost competitiveness, front-loaded fiscal adjustment, and balance sheet repair; strengthen EU-wide supervision and crisis resolution and make the safety net more flexible.\n  - Maintain accommodative monetary policy where sizable slack exists (United States, Japan, euro area), while guarding against further increases in core inflation as slack diminishes; accommodative monetary policy should not substitute for financial sector repair.\n  - Use macroprudential policies and stronger financial supervision to contain risks from prolonged low interest rates.\n- Emerging and developing economies:\n  - Expeditiously tighten macroeconomic policies where economies are operating at or above precrisis output levels.\n  - Use exchange rate flexibility and macroprudential tools, possibly including capital controls, to contain boom-bust risks; continue policy tightening coordinated with transparent central bank communication to anchor inflation expectations.\n  - Rebuild fiscal buffers in economies with high fiscal deficits or debt; preserve social sector spending and priority infrastructure investment.\n  - For economies with excessive current account surpluses (particularly in Asia): pursue demand rebalancing through exchange rate appreciation and structural reforms to secure balanced growth and employment gains in the medium term.\n- Latin America and the Caribbean (region-specific guidance):\n  - With output gaps largely closed, remove macroeconomic policy accommodation.\n  - Reduce the pace of government spending to avoid overburdening monetary policy amid sizable capital inflows and currency appreciation.\n  - Strengthen macroprudential measures and consider capital controls to enhance financial-system resilience.\n  - In Central America: rebuild policy buffers used during the global recession.\n  - In the Caribbean: continue fiscal consolidation where public debt is very high to ensure stability and sustainable growth.\n\nIMF World Economic Outlook Update — Mild Slowdown of the Global Expansion, and Increasing Risks, June 2011\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Fig01\n  - Fig01 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Fig01 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 2. Recent Economic Indicators\n  - Figure 2. Recent Economic Indicators (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 2. Recent Economic Indicators (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 3.  Recent Financial Market Developments\n  - Figure 3.  Recent Financial Market Developments (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 3.  Recent Financial Market Developments (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 4.  Net Flows to Emerging Market Funds\n  - Figure 4.  Net Flows to Emerging Market Funds (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 4.  Net Flows to Emerging Market Funds (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 5.  Real Credit Growth\n  - Figure 5.  Real Credit Growth (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 5.  Real Credit Growth (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 6.  Commodity Price Indices\n  - Figure 6.  Commodity Price Indices (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 6.  Commodity Price Indices (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 7.  Pace of Monetary Policy Tightening in Emerging Economies\n  - Figure 7.  Pace of Monetary Policy Tightening in Emerging Economies (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 7.  Pace of Monetary Policy Tightening in Emerging Economies (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- مستجدات  آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي ;يونيو 2011\n  - مستجدات  آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي ;يونيو 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - مستجدات  آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي ;يونيو 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 世界经济展望最新预测，2011年6月——全球增长略微放慢，风险正在增加\n  - 世界经济展望最新预测，2011年6月——全球增长略微放慢，风险正在增加 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 世界经济展望最新预测，2011年6月——全球增长略微放慢，风险正在增加 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0611f\n  - 0611f (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 0611f (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 世界経済成長は緩やかに減速、リスクは拡大\n  - 世界経済成長は緩やかに減速、リスクは拡大 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 世界経済成長は緩やかに減速、リスクは拡大 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- FIG01\n  - FIG01 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - FIG01 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- FIG02\n  - FIG02 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - FIG02 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- FIG03\n  - FIG03 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - FIG03 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- FIG04\n  - FIG04 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - FIG04 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- FIG05\n  - FIG05 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - FIG05 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- FIG06\n  - FIG06 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - FIG06 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- FIG07\n  - FIG07 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - FIG07 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0611pdf\n  - 0611pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 0611pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Бюллетень «Перспектив развития мировой экономики», июнь 2011 года\n  - Бюллетень «Перспектив развития мировой экономики», июнь 2011 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Бюллетень «Перспектив развития мировой экономики», июнь 2011 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0611s\n  - 0611s (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 0611s (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Webcast\n- Transcript\n- Global Growth Hits a Soft Patch\n- Global Growth Hits Soft Patch, Expected to Rebound\n- http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=993170889001\n- Global Financial Stability Report Market Update\n- Fiscal Monitor Update\n- World Economic Outlook (WEO)\n- Reports\n- Databases\n- Research at the IMF\n- World Economic Outlook Database\n- discussion forum\n- June 2011 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Market Update\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/mild-slowdown-of-the-global-expansion-and-increasing-risks"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/mild-slowdown-of-the-global-expansion-and-increasing-risks/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/mild-slowdown-of-the-global-expansion-and-increasing-risks/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/mild-slowdown-of-the-global-expansion-and-increasing-risks/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: June 17, 2011",
    "Series: World Economic Outlook",
    "Global activity expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3 percent in the first quarter of 2011.",
    "Global activity is projected to slow in the second quarter of 2011, then reaccelerate in the second half of 2011; baseline projections for 2011–12 are broadly unchanged relative to the April 2011 WEO.",
    "Forward-looking indicators (manufacturing purchasing managers indices) suggest activity softened in Q2 2011, especially in many advanced economies.",
    "Key drivers of the slowdown in Q2 2011:",
    "Fundamental growth drivers remaining in place: still-accommodative macroeconomic conditions, pent-up demand for durables and investment, and strong potential growth in emerging and developing economies.",
    "Table 1 highlights (Percent change unless otherwise noted):",
    "Regional snapshots:",
    "Inflation:",
    "Commodity markets:",
    "Financial volatility:",
    "Balance of risks is tilted to the downside relative to April 2011 WEO.",
    "Elevated downside risks include:",
    "Commodity-related risks:",
    "Emerging-market overheating risks:",
    "Advanced economies:",
    "Emerging and developing economies:",
    "Latin America and the Caribbean (region-specific guidance):",
    "**Fig01**",
    "**Figure 2. Recent Economic Indicators**",
    "**Figure 3.  Recent Financial Market Developments**",
    "**Figure 4.  Net Flows to Emerging Market Funds**",
    "**Figure 5.  Real Credit Growth**",
    "**Figure 6.  Commodity Price Indices**",
    "**Figure 7.  Pace of Monetary Policy Tightening in Emerging Economies**",
    "**مستجدات  آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي ;يونيو 2011**",
    "**世界经济展望最新预测，2011年6月——全球增长略微放慢，风险正在增加**",
    "**0611f**",
    "**世界経済成長は緩やかに減速、リスクは拡大**",
    "**FIG01**",
    "**FIG02**",
    "**FIG03**",
    "**FIG04**",
    "**FIG05**",
    "**FIG06**",
    "**FIG07**",
    "**_0611pdf**",
    "**Бюллетень «Перспектив развития мировой экономики», июнь 2011 года**",
    "**0611s**",
    "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)",
    "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)",
    "[Webcast](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=1001049058001)",
    "[Transcript](http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2011/tr061711.htm)",
    "[Global Growth Hits a Soft Patch](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/06/17/global-growth-hits-a-soft-patch/)",
    "[Global Growth Hits Soft Patch, Expected to Rebound](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/NEW061711A.htm)",
    "[http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=993170889001](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=993170889001)",
    "[Global Financial Stability Report Market Update](http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/fmu/eng/2011/02/index.htm)",
    "[Fiscal Monitor Update](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/update/fmindex.htm)",
    "[World Economic Outlook (WEO)](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/index.htm)",
    "[Reports](http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)",
    "[Databases](http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28)",
    "[Research at the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/res/index.htm)",
    "[World Economic Outlook Database](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/weodata/index.aspx)",
    "[discussion forum](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/forum/index.htm)",
    "[June 2011 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Market Update](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fmu/eng/2011/02/index.htm)"
  ],
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