{
  "title": "IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update -- Restoring Confidence without Harming Recovery, July 2010",
  "publication": "World Economic Outlook, July 7, 2010",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/restoring-confidence-without-harming-recovery",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/restoring-confidence-without-harming-recovery",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/restoring-confidence-without-harming-recovery/index.md",
  "summary": "World growth is projected at about 4½ percent in 2010 and 4¼ percent in 2011. Relative to the April 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO), this represents an upward revision of about ½ percentage point in 2010, reflecting stronger activity during the first half of the year.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Global outlook and recent revisions",
      "content": "- World growth is projected at about 4½ percent in 2010 and 4¼ percent in 2011.\n- Relative to the April 2010 WEO, this represents an upward revision of about ½ percentage point in 2010; the forecast for 2011 is unchanged.\n- Advanced economies: output is expected to expand by 2½ percent in 2010 (a small upward revision of ¼ percentage point); Q4-over-Q4 forecast broadly unchanged at 2¼ percent.\n- Emerging and developing economies: annual output growth expected to edge down to 6½ percent in 2011 (broadly unchanged from April 2010 WEO); Q4-over-Q4 growth for 2011 projected at 6¾ percent (a downward revision of ½ percentage point).\n- Table 1 highlights (percent change, unless otherwise noted): World Output estimates: 2008 = 3.0; 2009 = –0.6; 2010 = 4.6; 2011 = 4.3. Advanced Economies estimates: 2008 = 0.5; 2009 = –3.2; 2010 = 2.6; 2011 = 2.4."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial turbulence, risks, and spillovers",
      "content": "- Renewed financial turbulence in May–June 2010 heightened downside risks, centered on fiscal sustainability concerns in Greece and other vulnerable euro area economies.\n- Sovereign risk concerns spilled over to European banking sectors, causing funding pressure, interbank market stress, and sharp movements in currency, equity, and commodity markets.\n- Potential channels for real-economy spillovers: curtailed bank credit supply, increased funding costs, lower consumer and business confidence, and fiscal consolidation dampening domestic demand.\n- Assumptions in baseline: euro area financial conditions stabilize gradually (use of the new European Stabilization Mechanism as needed and coordinated policies to rebuild bank confidence); additional fiscal consolidation of about ½ percent of GDP reduces euro area growth in 2011 by about ¼ percentage point relative to April 2010 WEO; euro depreciation partially offsets tighter financing conditions.\n- Downside scenario (GPM simulation): assumes shocks to financial conditions and domestic demand in the euro area as large as in 2008 plus significant contagion, including in the United States; in this scenario, world growth in 2011 is reduced by about 1½ percentage points relative to the baseline."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Regional highlights — Asia and Pacific (Box 1)",
      "content": "- Asia’s GDP growth forecasts revised upward for 2010 from about 7 percent to about 7½ percent; 2011 expected to settle to about 6¾ percent.\n- Country projections and near-term expectations:\n  - China: 2010 = 10½ percent; 2011 = about 9½ percent.\n  - India: 2010 = about 9½ percent; 2011 = 8½ percent.\n  - NIEs and ASEAN: 2010 = about 6½ percent; 2011 = 4¾ percent (NIEs) and 5½ percent (ASEAN).\n  - Japan: 2010 = about 2½ percent; 2011 = about 1¾ percent.\n  - Australia and New Zealand: 2010 = about 3 percent; 2011 = 3½ and 3¼ percent, respectively.\n- Risks: limited direct financial linkages to vulnerable euro area economies, but significant trade exposure; potential contagion via bank funding, corporate financing, capital outflows, and equity valuation declines.\n- Policy capacity: Asian central banks and fiscal authorities have room to redeploy instruments or delay stimulus withdrawal if needed; example cited: Bank of Japan U.S. dollar liquidity swap facility reestablishment in May 2010."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Inflation and commodity price projections",
      "content": "- Baseline petroleum price projection revised to $75.3 a barrel for 2010 and $77.5 a barrel for 2011 (from $80 and $83 in April 2010 WEO).\n- Average price of oil in U.S. dollars a barrel was $61.78 in 2009.\n- Nonfuel commodity price index projections broadly unchanged.\n- Inflation expectations:\n  - Advanced economies: headline inflation expected around 1¼-1½ percent in 2010 and 2011; risks of deflation remain in some advanced economies.\n  - Emerging and developing economies: inflation expected to edge up to 6¼ percent in 2010 before subsiding to 5 percent in 2011."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy priorities and recommendations",
      "content": "- Overarching challenge: restore financial market confidence without choking the recovery.\n- Euro area immediate priorities (financial sphere):\n  - Make the new European Stabilization Mechanism fully operational.\n  - Resolve uncertainty about bank exposures (including to sovereign debt).\n  - Ensure European banks have adequate capital buffers.\n  - Continue liquidity support.\n- Fiscal policy:\n  - Urgent need for ambitious, credible medium- and long-term consolidation plans (legislation creating binding multiyear targets, reforms to pension entitlements and public health care systems, permanent reductions in non-entitlement spending, tax structure improvements, and stronger fiscal institutions).\n  - Near-term adjustment should depend on country circumstances; most advanced economies do not need to tighten before 2011 but should not add further stimulus.\n  - Current fiscal consolidation plans for 2011 envisage an average change in the structural balance of 1¼ percentage points of GDP and are broadly appropriate.\n  - Economies facing sovereign funding pressures must undertake immediate consolidation with upfront measures.\n  - Fast-growing advanced and emerging economies can start tightening now; in economies with excessive external surpluses, priority may be monetary tightening and exchange rate appreciation rather than fiscal tightening.\n- Monetary and exchange rate policy:\n  - Maintain highly accommodative monetary conditions in many advanced economies given subdued inflation pressures; monetary policy should be the first line of defense if downside risks materialize.\n  - Emerging market monetary policy must be responsive in both directions; consider nominal effective exchange rate appreciation in economies with excessive external surpluses and supporting measures (reserve buildup, macroprudential measures, controls on capital flows where appropriate).\n- Financial sector reform:\n  - Accelerate bank recapitalization, consolidation, resolution, restructuring, and regulatory reform.\n  - Increase transparency about bank exposures and non-public financial institutions; publish stress test results and implement credible plans to strengthen capital levels.\n  - Develop credible and consistent timetables for regulatory reform; avoid unilateral measures that could have unintended consequences.\n- Structural reforms and global demand rebalancing:\n  - Support transition toward domestic demand in surplus economies through social safety net reform, improved service-sector productivity, and greater exchange rate flexibility where appropriate.\n  - In deficit economies, pursue fiscal consolidation and financial sector reform.\n  - Prioritize structural reforms in product and labor markets and tax reforms that encourage investment to raise potential growth and support successful fiscal adjustment.\n\nIMF World Economic Outlook Update — Restoring Confidence without Harming Recovery, July 2010\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Figure 1.  Global GDP Growth\n  - Figure 1.  Global GDP Growth (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 1.  Global GDP Growth (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 2.  Recent Economic Indicators\n  - Figure 2.  Recent Economic Indicators (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 2.  Recent Economic Indicators (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- fig3\n  - fig3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - fig3 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Fig 4\n  - Fig 4 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Fig 4 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 5.  Downside Scenario: Additional Worsening in Financial Stress\n  - Figure 5.  Downside Scenario: Additional Worsening in Financial Stress (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 5.  Downside Scenario: Additional Worsening in Financial Stress (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 6.  Fiscal Adjustment in 2011\n  - Figure 6.  Fiscal Adjustment in 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 6.  Fiscal Adjustment in 2011 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- Figure 7.  Capital Flows to Emerging Markets\n  - Figure 7.  Capital Flows to Emerging Markets (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Figure 7.  Capital Flows to Emerging Markets (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/octet-stream\"}\n- 0710a\n  - 0710a (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 0710a (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 世界经济展望最新预测，2010年7月——在不损害复苏的同时重建信心\n  - 世界经济展望最新预测，2010年7月——在不损害复苏的同时重建信心 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 世界经济展望最新预测，2010年7月——在不损害复苏的同时重建信心 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0710f\n  - 0710f (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 0710f (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 世界経済見通し改訂見通し:  回復を妨げることなく信認の回復を目指す; 2010年7月8日\n  - 世界経済見通し改訂見通し:  回復を妨げることなく信認の回復を目指す; 2010年7月8日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 世界経済見通し改訂見通し:  回復を妨げることなく信認の回復を目指す; 2010年7月8日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- IMF World Economic Outlook\n  - IMF World Economic Outlook (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - IMF World Economic Outlook (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Microsoft Word - Asia table for Box 1.docx\n  - Microsoft Word - Asia table for Box 1.docx (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Microsoft Word - Asia table for Box 1.docx (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Microsoft Word - Document1\n  - Microsoft Word - Document1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Microsoft Word - Document1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Microsoft Word\n  - Microsoft Word (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Microsoft Word (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Microsoft Word - Fig3.doc\n  - Microsoft Word - Fig3.doc (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Microsoft Word - Fig3.doc (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Microsoft Word - Fig04.docx\n  - Microsoft Word - Fig04.docx (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Microsoft Word - Fig04.docx (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Microsoft Word - Fig05.docx\n  - Microsoft Word - Fig05.docx (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Microsoft Word - Fig05.docx (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Microsoft Word - Fig06.docx\n  - Microsoft Word - Fig06.docx (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Microsoft Word - Fig06.docx (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Microsoft Word - Fig07.docx\n  - Microsoft Word - Fig07.docx (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Microsoft Word - Fig07.docx (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективы развития мировой экономики, Бюллетень ПРМЭ, июль 2010 года\n  - Перспективы развития мировой экономики, Бюллетень ПРМЭ, июль 2010 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Перспективы развития мировой экономики, Бюллетень ПРМЭ, июль 2010 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 0710s\n  - 0710s (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 0710s (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Webcast\n- Transcript\n- http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=107198897001\n- Video (Français)\n- World Economic Outlook, April 2010\n- Reports\n- Databases\n- Research at the IMF\n- World Economic Outlook Database\n- discussion forum\n- July 2010 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Update\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/restoring-confidence-without-harming-recovery"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/restoring-confidence-without-harming-recovery/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/restoring-confidence-without-harming-recovery/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/restoring-confidence-without-harming-recovery/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: July 7, 2010",
    "Series: World Economic Outlook",
    "World growth is projected at about 4½ percent in 2010 and 4¼ percent in 2011.",
    "Relative to the April 2010 WEO, this represents an upward revision of about ½ percentage point in 2010; the forecast for 2011 is unchanged.",
    "Advanced economies: output is expected to expand by 2½ percent in 2010 (a small upward revision of ¼ percentage point); Q4-over-Q4 forecast broadly unchanged at 2¼ percent.",
    "Emerging and developing economies: annual output growth expected to edge down to 6½ percent in 2011 (broadly unchanged from April 2010 WEO); Q4-over-Q4 growth for 2011 projected at 6¾ percent (a downward revision of ½ percentage point).",
    "Table 1 highlights (percent change, unless otherwise noted): World Output estimates: 2008 = 3.0; 2009 = –0.6; 2010 = 4.6; 2011 = 4.3. Advanced Economies estimates: 2008 = 0.5; 2009 = –3.2; 2010 = 2.6; 2011 = 2.4.",
    "Renewed financial turbulence in May–June 2010 heightened downside risks, centered on fiscal sustainability concerns in Greece and other vulnerable euro area economies.",
    "Sovereign risk concerns spilled over to European banking sectors, causing funding pressure, interbank market stress, and sharp movements in currency, equity, and commodity markets.",
    "Potential channels for real-economy spillovers: curtailed bank credit supply, increased funding costs, lower consumer and business confidence, and fiscal consolidation dampening domestic demand.",
    "Assumptions in baseline: euro area financial conditions stabilize gradually (use of the new European Stabilization Mechanism as needed and coordinated policies to rebuild bank confidence); additional fiscal consolidation of about ½ percent of GDP reduces euro area growth in 2011 by about ¼ percentage point relative to April 2010 WEO; euro depreciation partially offsets tighter financing conditions.",
    "Downside scenario (GPM simulation): assumes shocks to financial conditions and domestic demand in the euro area as large as in 2008 plus significant contagion, including in the United States; in this scenario, world growth in 2011 is reduced by about 1½ percentage points relative to the baseline.",
    "Asia’s GDP growth forecasts revised upward for 2010 from about 7 percent to about 7½ percent; 2011 expected to settle to about 6¾ percent.",
    "Country projections and near-term expectations:",
    "Risks: limited direct financial linkages to vulnerable euro area economies, but significant trade exposure; potential contagion via bank funding, corporate financing, capital outflows, and equity valuation declines.",
    "Policy capacity: Asian central banks and fiscal authorities have room to redeploy instruments or delay stimulus withdrawal if needed; example cited: Bank of Japan U.S. dollar liquidity swap facility reestablishment in May 2010.",
    "Baseline petroleum price projection revised to $75.3 a barrel for 2010 and $77.5 a barrel for 2011 (from $80 and $83 in April 2010 WEO).",
    "Average price of oil in U.S. dollars a barrel was $61.78 in 2009.",
    "Nonfuel commodity price index projections broadly unchanged.",
    "Inflation expectations:",
    "Overarching challenge: restore financial market confidence without choking the recovery.",
    "Euro area immediate priorities (financial sphere):",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "Monetary and exchange rate policy:",
    "Financial sector reform:",
    "Structural reforms and global demand rebalancing:",
    "**Figure 1.  Global GDP Growth**",
    "**Figure 2.  Recent Economic Indicators**",
    "**fig_3**",
    "**Fig 4**",
    "**Figure 5.  Downside Scenario: Additional Worsening in Financial Stress**",
    "**Figure 6.  Fiscal Adjustment in 2011**",
    "**Figure 7.  Capital Flows to Emerging Markets**",
    "**0710a**",
    "**世界经济展望最新预测，2010年7月——在不损害复苏的同时重建信心**",
    "**0710f**",
    "**世界経済見通し改訂見通し:  回復を妨げることなく信認の回復を目指す; 2010年7月8日**",
    "**IMF World Economic Outlook**",
    "**Microsoft Word - Asia table for Box 1.docx**",
    "**Microsoft Word - Document1**",
    "**Microsoft Word**",
    "**Microsoft Word - Fig_3.doc**",
    "**Microsoft Word - Fig04.docx**",
    "**Microsoft Word - Fig05.docx**",
    "**Microsoft Word - Fig06.docx**",
    "**Microsoft Word - Fig07.docx**",
    "**Перспективы развития мировой экономики, Бюллетень ПРМЭ, июль 2010 года**",
    "**0710s**",
    "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)",
    "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)",
    "[Webcast](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=129177508001)",
    "[Transcript](http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2010/tr070810.htm)",
    "[http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=107198897001](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=107198897001)",
    "[Video (Français)](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=107198895001)",
    "[World Economic Outlook, April 2010](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/index.htm)",
    "[Reports](http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)",
    "[Databases](http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28)",
    "[Research at the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/res/index.htm)",
    "[World Economic Outlook Database](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/weodata/index.aspx)",
    "[discussion forum](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/forum/index.htm)",
    "[July 2010 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Update](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fmu/eng/2010/02/index.htm)"
  ],
  "related": [
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      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/japanese/pubs/ft/weo/2010/update/02/pdf/0710j.pdf",
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