{ "title": "IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Tensions from the Two-Speed Recovery: Unemployment, Commodities, and Capital Flows, April 2011", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, April 11, 2011", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/tensions-from-the-two-speed-recovery-unemployment-commodities-and-capital-flows", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/tensions-from-the-two-speed-recovery-unemployment-commodities-and-capital-flows", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/tensions-from-the-two-speed-recovery-unemployment-commodities-and-capital-flows/index.md", "summary": "IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2011, Tensions from the Two-Speed Recovery: Unemployment, Commodities, and Capital Flows", "publishDate": "2011-04-11", "series": "World Economic Outlook", "sections": [ { "heading": "Executive summary and headline findings", "content": "- \"The Recovery Has Solidified, but Unemployment Remains High\"\n- \"Financial Conditions Are Improving\"\n- \"Commodity Prices Are Resurgent\"\n- \"The Recovery Is Expected to Solidify\"\n- \"Risks Are Smaller but Remain to the Downside\"\n- \"Differences in the Pace of Activity Present Short-Term Policy Challenges\"\n- \"Advanced Economies Need to Repair Public and Financial Balance Sheets\"\n- \"Emerging Market Economies Need to Guard against Overheating and Credit Booms\"\n- \"Global Demand Rebalancing Is Not Progressing\"\n- \"Unemployment Needs to Be Reduced\"\n- \"Policies Are Not Yet Suffi ciently Proactive\"" }, { "heading": "Major analytical chapters and their focus", "content": "- Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies\n - Full Text | Boxes | Figures\n - Appendix 1.1. Financial Conditions Indices\n - Appendix 1.2. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects\n - Key themes listed in chapter structure (reproduced): global recovery, unemployment, financial conditions, commodity prices, policy challenges, risks, rebalancing, and policy responses.\n- Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives\n - Subsections (headlines): \"Recovery Proceeds in the United States\"; \"A Gradual and Uneven Recovery Is under Way in Europe\"; \"A Moderate Recovery Continues in the Commonwealth of Independent States\"; \"Rapid Growth Continues in Asia\"; \"Latin America Faces Buoyant External Conditions\"; \"Growth Has Returned to Precrisis Rates in Many African Countries\"; \"The Recovery in the Middle East and North Africa Region Faces an Uncertain Environment\"\n- Chapter 3. Oil Scarcity, Growth, and Global Imbalances\n - Full Text | Summary | Boxes | Figures | Video\n - Headline questions and topics: \"What Are the Main Findings?\"; \"Has Oil Become a Scarce Resource?\"; \"Oil Scarcity and the Global Economy\"; \"Implications for the Outlook and Policies\"\n - Appendices: 3.1, 3.2 (Energy and Oil Empirical Models)\n- Chapter 4. International Capital Flows: Reliable or Fickle?\n - Full Text | Summary | Figures | Video\n - Analytical focus: \"Trends in Net Capital Flows: Size, Composition, Volatility, and Persistence\"; \"Capital Flows and the Global Environment\"; \"Does Direct Financial Exposure Affect the Response of Private Capital Flows to Changes in U.S. Monetary Policy?\"; \"Policy Implications and Conclusions\"\n - Multiple technical appendices (4.1–4.4) on classification, composition, global factor model, regression methodology and robustness." }, { "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations (as presented)", "content": "- Advanced economies\n - Repair public and financial balance sheets.\n- Emerging market economies\n - Guard against overheating and credit booms.\n- Global policy stance\n - Address differences in pace of activity that present short-term policy challenges.\n - Reinvigorate global demand rebalancing efforts (noting \"Global Demand Rebalancing Is Not Progressing\").\n- Labor market\n - Prioritize policies to reduce unemployment (\"Unemployment Needs to Be Reduced\").\n- Policy activation\n - Increase policy proactivity (\"Policies Are Not Yet Suffi ciently Proactive\")." }, { "heading": "Selected data, figures, and scenarios referenced", "content": "- \"Download Full Text (4.20 MB)\"\n- Annex: \"IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2011\"\n- Statistical Appendix sections: Assumptions; What's New; Data and Conventions; Classification of Countries\n- Lists of tables covering Output, Inflation, Financial Policies, Foreign Trade, Current Account Transactions, Balance of Payments and External Financing, Flow of Funds, Medium–Term Baseline Scenario (Table A1–A17 and Table B1–B26 for online tables)\n- Boxes highlighted in WEO Selected Topics (examples): 1.1 House Price Busts in Advanced Economies; 1.2 World Economic Outlook Downside Scenarios; 3.1 Life Cycle Constraints on Global Oil Production; 3.2 Unconventional Natural Gas: A Game Changer?; 4.1 Economy Groupings\n- Figures and charts include (selected): \"Global Indicators\"; \"Global Outlook\"; \"Prospects for Near-Term Activity\"; \"Global Inflation\"; \"Commodity Prices\"; \"World Energy Market Developments\"; \"Global Oil Market Developments\"; \"The Collapse and Recovery of Cross-Border Capital Inflows\"; \"The Recovery of Net Private Capital Flows\"; \"The Volatility of Net Private Capital Flows\"" }, { "heading": "Scenarios and alternative analyses (chapter 3 and chapter 4)", "content": "- Chapter 3 alternative scenarios (listed):\n - \"Benchmark Scenario\"\n - \"Alternative Scenario 1: Greater Substitution away from Oil\"\n - \"Alternative Scenario 2: Greater Decline in Oil Production\"\n - \"Alternative Scenario 3: Greater Economic Role for Oil\"\n- Chapter 4 scenario analyses and robustness checks include:\n - \"Baseline Results\"\n - \"Difference in the Response of Net Private Capital Flows to U.S. Monetary Tightening across Economies\"\n - \"Difference in the Response of Emerging Market Economy Net Private Capital Flows to U.S. Monetary Tightening by Selected Economic Characteristics\"\n - \"Robustness Checks for the Difference in Response of Net Private Capital Flows to Directly Financially Exposed Emerging Market Economies\"\n\nIMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2011 — Tensions from the Two-Speed Recovery: Unemployment, Commodities, and Capital Flows\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Sumapdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Textapdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Texta (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Sumcpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Textcpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Textc (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Sumfpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Textf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Sumjpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Textjpdf 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(CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig3 2 2 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig3 2 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig3 3 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig3 4 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig3 5 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig3 6 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig3 7 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig3 8 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig3 9 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 1 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 10 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 11 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 12 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 13 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 14 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 15 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 16 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 17 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 18 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 19 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 2 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 20 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 21 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 22 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 23 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 24 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 3 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 4 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 5 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 6 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 7 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 8 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n- Fig4 9 (CSV){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/images/coverlg.jpg\n- World Economic Outlook Database\n- http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=900196335001\n- Transcript\n- http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=894651153001\n- Transcript\n- http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=895493693001\n- http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=888827744001\n- http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=888867409001\n- Archive of WEO Reports\n- IMF Data Mapper®\n- Research at the IMF\n- Using PDF Files\n- Using CSV Files\n- Viewing Webcasts\n- discussion forum\n- Disclaimer\n- Video\n- Video\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/tensions-from-the-two-speed-recovery-unemployment-commodities-and-capital-flows" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/tensions-from-the-two-speed-recovery-unemployment-commodities-and-capital-flows/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/tensions-from-the-two-speed-recovery-unemployment-commodities-and-capital-flows/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2016/12/31/tensions-from-the-two-speed-recovery-unemployment-commodities-and-capital-flows/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: April 11, 2011", "Series: World Economic Outlook", "\"The Recovery Has Solidified, but Unemployment Remains High\"", "\"Financial Conditions Are Improving\"", "\"Commodity Prices Are Resurgent\"", "\"The Recovery Is Expected to Solidify\"", "\"Risks Are Smaller but Remain to the Downside\"", "\"Differences in the Pace of Activity Present Short-Term Policy Challenges\"", "\"Advanced Economies Need to Repair Public and Financial Balance Sheets\"", "\"Emerging Market Economies Need to Guard against Overheating and Credit Booms\"", "\"Global Demand Rebalancing Is Not Progressing\"", "\"Unemployment Needs to Be Reduced\"", "\"Policies Are Not Yet Suffi ciently Proactive\"", "Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies", "Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives", "Chapter 3. Oil Scarcity, Growth, and Global Imbalances", "Chapter 4. International Capital Flows: Reliable or Fickle?", "Advanced economies", "Emerging market economies", "Global policy stance", "Labor market", "Policy activation", "\"Download Full Text (4.20 MB)\"", "Annex: \"IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2011\"", "Statistical Appendix sections: Assumptions; What's New; Data and Conventions; Classification of Countries", "Lists of tables covering Output, Inflation, Financial Policies, Foreign Trade, Current Account Transactions, Balance of Payments and External Financing, Flow of Funds, Medium–Term Baseline Scenario (Table A1–A17 and Table B1–B26 for online tables)", "Boxes highlighted in WEO Selected Topics (examples): 1.1 House Price Busts in Advanced Economies; 1.2 World Economic Outlook Downside Scenarios; 3.1 Life Cycle Constraints on Global Oil Production; 3.2 Unconventional Natural Gas: A Game Changer?; 4.1 Economy Groupings", "Figures and charts include (selected): \"Global Indicators\"; \"Global Outlook\"; \"Prospects for Near-Term Activity\"; \"Global Inflation\"; \"Commodity Prices\"; \"World Energy Market Developments\"; \"Global Oil Market Developments\"; \"The Collapse and Recovery of Cross-Border Capital Inflows\"; \"The Recovery of Net Private Capital Flows\"; \"The Volatility of Net Private Capital Flows\"", "Chapter 3 alternative scenarios (listed):", "Chapter 4 scenario analyses and robustness checks include:", "[Sumapdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/pdf/_sumapdf.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[Textapdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/pdf/_textapdf.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[Texta (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/pdf/texta.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[Sumcpdf 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"[Fig2 14 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c2/fig2_14.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig2 15 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c2/fig2_15.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig2 16 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c2/fig2_16.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig2 2 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c2/fig2_2.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig2 3 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c2/fig2_3.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig2 4 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c2/fig2_4.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig2 5 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c2/fig2_5.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig2 6 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c2/fig2_6.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig2 7 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c2/fig2_7.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig2 8 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c2/fig2_8.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig2 9 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c2/fig2_9.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig3 1 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c3/fig3_1_1.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig3 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c3/fig3_1.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig3 10 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c3/fig3_10.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig3 11 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c3/fig3_11.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig3 12 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c3/fig3_12.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig3 2 1 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c3/fig3_2_1.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig3 2 2 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c3/fig3_2_2.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig3 2 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c3/fig3_2.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig3 3 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c3/fig3_3.csv){rel=\"external\" 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type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 13 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_13.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 14 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_14.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 15 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_15.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 16 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_16.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 17 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_17.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 18 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_18.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 19 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_19.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 2 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_2.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 20 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_20.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 21 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_21.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 22 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_22.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 23 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_23.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 24 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_24.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 3 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_3.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 4 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_4.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 5 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_5.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 6 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_6.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 7 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_7.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 8 (CSV)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c4/fig4_8.csv){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/csv\"}", "[Fig4 9 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