{
  "title": "World Economic Outlook, April 2017: Gaining Momentum?",
  "publication": "World Economic Outlook, April 2017",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2017/04/04/world-economic-outlook-april-2017",
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  "summary": "Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this <em>World Economic Outlook</em>. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018.",
  "publishDate": "2017-04-18",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Global prospects and headline projections",
      "content": "- Global economic activity is picking up with a cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade.\n- World growth projections:\n  - 2016: 3.1 percent\n  - 2017: 3.5 percent\n  - 2018: 3.6 percent\n- Upside developments cited:\n  - Stronger activity\n  - Expectations of more robust global demand\n  - Reduced deflationary pressures\n  - Optimistic financial markets\n- Downside and structural challenges emphasized:\n  - Structural impediments to a stronger recovery (e.g., low productivity growth, high income inequality)\n  - Balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term\n  - Rising pressures for inward-looking policies in advanced economies that could threaten global economic integration and the cooperative global economic order"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Chapter 1: Recent developments, forecast, risks, and policy priorities",
      "content": "- Recent developments:\n  - Buoyant financial markets\n  - Cyclical recovery in manufacturing and trade\n- Forecast restated:\n  - World growth: 3.1 percent in 2016; 3.5 percent in 2017; 3.6 percent in 2018\n- Risks:\n  - Balance of risks tilted to the downside, particularly medium-term\n  - Persistent structural problems could increase protectionist pressures\n- Policy priorities and themes:\n  - Economic policies needed to stave off downside risks and secure recovery\n  - Need for credible strategies in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies\n  - Renewed multilateral effort recommended to tackle common challenges in an integrated global economy\n- Notable analytical boxes and scenarios in Chapter 1:\n  - Scenario Box 1. Permanent U.S. Fiscal Expansions\n  - Box 1.1. Conflict, Growth, and Migration\n  - Box 1.2. Tackling Measurement Challenges of Irish Economic Activity\n  - Special Feature on Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, focusing on technology and unconventional sources in the global oil market"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Chapter 2: Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) — external environment and growth",
      "content": "- EMDE role in the global economy:\n  - Now account for more than 75 percent of global growth in output and consumption\n  - Share is almost double that of two decades earlier\n- Importance of external conditions:\n  - Terms of trade, external demand, and external financial conditions are increasingly influential determinants of medium-term growth as EMDEs integrate globally\n- Catch-up prospects and fragility:\n  - Considerable income gaps vis-à-vis advanced economies suggest room for catch-up and relatively strong potential medium-term growth\n  - Catch-up growth is episodic — exhibits accelerations and reversals over time\n- Prospective external environment:\n  - The global economy may face a less supportive external environment going forward compared with long stretches of the post-2000 period\n- Policy and structural prescriptions to maximize growth given weaker external impulse:\n  - Strengthen institutional frameworks\n  - Protect trade integration\n  - Permit exchange rate flexibility\n  - Contain vulnerabilities from high current account deficits and external borrowing, as well as large public debt\n- Chapter 2 analytical structure (high-level):\n  - EMDE growth performance over time\n  - How external conditions influence growth episodes\n  - Role of policies and structural attributes in mediating external impacts\n  - Assessment of current environment implications for EMDE growth prospects"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Chapter 3: Declining labor share of income — facts, drivers, and implications",
      "content": "- Core finding:\n  - A downward trend in the labor share of income since the early 1990s, with heterogeneous evolution across countries, industries, and worker skill groups\n- Main drivers identified:\n  - In advanced economies:\n    - Technological progress, reflected in a steep decline in the relative price of investment goods, and exposure to routine-based occupations explain about half the overall decline\n    - Larger negative impact on earnings of middle-skilled workers\n  - In emerging markets:\n    - Global integration forces, especially expansion of global value chains, predominantly explain labor share evolution by raising overall capital intensity in production\n- Analytical approach and evidence:\n  - Newly assembled data for a large sample of advanced and emerging market and developing economies\n  - Empirical decompositions, sectoral and skill-level analyses, and robustness checks\n- Policy implications highlighted:\n  - Understanding sectoral and skill heterogeneity is important for designing policies to address distributional consequences and labor-market adjustments\n- Supporting materials and boxes:\n  - Box 3.1. Technological Progress and Labor Shares: A Historical Overview\n  - Box 3.2. The Elasticity of Substitution between Capital and Labor: Concept and Estimation\n  - Box 3.3. Routine Tasks, Automation, and Economic Dislocation around the World\n  - Box 3.4. Adjustments to the Labor Share of Income\n\nSource: World Economic Outlook, April 2017: Gaining Momentum?\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 040717c (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 041017c (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 041417c (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 041017ja (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 041017jb (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 041417ja (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 041017ar (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 041017r (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 041817r (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي: هل يتزايد الزخم\n  - آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي: هل يتزايد الزخم (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي: هل يتزايد الزخم (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 《世界经济展望》序言及概要; 2017年4月\n  - 《世界经济展望》序言及概要; 2017年4月 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 《世界经济展望》序言及概要; 2017年4月 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 2017年4月IMF《世界经济展望》增长势头加强？ (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Perspectives de l’économie mondiale, Avril 2017: Un nouvel élan? (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 世界経済見通し (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2017; List of Tables, Part B (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- World Economic Outlook: Gaining Momentum? (April 2017) — Selected content unit\n  - World Economic Outlook: Gaining Momentum? (April 2017) — Selected content unit (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - World Economic Outlook: Gaining Momentum? (April 2017) — Selected content unit (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективы развития мировой экономики. Наращивание темпов? апрель 2017 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Аналитическое резюме -- Перспективы развития мировой экономики -- апрель 2017 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Perspectivas de la economía mundial: ¿Está cobrando impulso?; Abril de 2017 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Podcast with Economic Counsellor Maurice Obstfeld\n- Video: Summary of the April 2017 World Economic Outlook\n- Blog: Global Economy Gaining Momentum—For Now\n- Blog: Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Sustaining Growth in a Less Supportive External Environment\n- Blog: Drivers of Declining Labor Share of Income\n- Blog\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2017/04/04/world-economic-outlook-april-2017"
    }
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    "Published: April 18, 2017",
    "Global economic activity is picking up with a cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade.",
    "World growth projections:",
    "Upside developments cited:",
    "Downside and structural challenges emphasized:",
    "Recent developments:",
    "Forecast restated:",
    "Risks:",
    "Policy priorities and themes:",
    "Notable analytical boxes and scenarios in Chapter 1:",
    "EMDE role in the global economy:",
    "Importance of external conditions:",
    "Catch-up prospects and fragility:",
    "Prospective external environment:",
    "Policy and structural prescriptions to maximize growth given weaker external impulse:",
    "Chapter 2 analytical structure (high-level):",
    "Core finding:",
    "Main drivers identified:",
    "Analytical approach and evidence:",
    "Policy implications highlighted:",
    "Supporting materials and boxes:",
    "[040717c (PDF)](/external/chinese/np/blog/2017/040717c.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[041017c (PDF)](/external/chinese/np/blog/2017/041017c.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[041417c (PDF)](/external/chinese/np/blog/2017/041417c.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[041017ja (PDF)](/external/japanese/np/blog/2017/041017ja.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[041017jb (PDF)](/external/japanese/np/blog/2017/041017jb.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[041417ja (PDF)](/external/japanese/np/blog/2017/041417ja.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[041017ar (PDF)](/external/russian/np/blog/2017/041017ar.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[041017r (PDF)](/external/russian/np/blog/2017/041017r.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[041817r (PDF)](/external/russian/np/blog/2017/041817r.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "**آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي: هل يتزايد الزخم**",
    "**《世界经济展望》序言及概要; 2017年4月**",
    "[2017年4月IMF《世界经济展望》增长势头加强？ (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/chinese/pdf/textc.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[Perspectives de l’économie mondiale, Avril 2017: Un nouvel élan? (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/french/pdf/textf.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[世界経済見通し (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/japanese/pdf/textj.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2017; List of Tables, Part B (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/pdf/tblpartb.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "**World Economic Outlook: Gaining Momentum? (April 2017) — Selected content unit**",
    "[Перспективы развития мировой экономики. Наращивание темпов? апрель 2017 года (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/russian/pdf/fulltextr.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[Аналитическое резюме -- Перспективы развития мировой экономики -- апрель 2017 года (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/russian/pdf/textr.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[Perspectivas de la economía mundial: ¿Está cobrando impulso?; Abril de 2017 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/spanish/pdf/texts.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[Podcast with Economic Counsellor Maurice Obstfeld](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/SinglePodcastHighlight.aspx?podcastid=443)",
    "[Video: Summary of the April 2017 World Economic Outlook](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=5401021734001)",
    "[Blog: Global Economy Gaining Momentum—For Now](https://blogs.imf.org/2017/04/18/global-economy-gaining-momentum-for-now/)",
    "[Blog: Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Sustaining Growth in a Less Supportive External Environment](https://blogs.imf.org/2017/04/12/emerging-markets-and-developing-economies-sustaining-growth-in-a-less-supportive-external-environment/)",
    "[Blog: Drivers of Declining Labor Share of Income](https://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2017/04/10/drivers-of-declining-labor-share-of-income/)",
    "[Blog](https://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2017/04/10/drivers-of-declining-labor-share-of-income)"
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