## World Economic Outlook, April 2017: Gaining Momentum? _World Economic Outlook, April 2017_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [World Economic Outlook, April 2017: Gaining Momentum?](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2017/04/04/world-economic-outlook-april-2017) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2017/04/04/world-economic-outlook-april-2017/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2017/04/04/world-economic-outlook-april-2017/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2017/04/04/world-economic-outlook-april-2017/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: April 18, 2017 --- ### Global prospects and headline projections - Global economic activity is picking up with a cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade. - World growth projections: - 2016: 3.1 percent - 2017: 3.5 percent - 2018: 3.6 percent - Upside developments cited: - Stronger activity - Expectations of more robust global demand - Reduced deflationary pressures - Optimistic financial markets - Downside and structural challenges emphasized: - Structural impediments to a stronger recovery (e.g., low productivity growth, high income inequality) - Balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term - Rising pressures for inward-looking policies in advanced economies that could threaten global economic integration and the cooperative global economic order ### Chapter 1: Recent developments, forecast, risks, and policy priorities - Recent developments: - Buoyant financial markets - Cyclical recovery in manufacturing and trade - Forecast restated: - World growth: 3.1 percent in 2016; 3.5 percent in 2017; 3.6 percent in 2018 - Risks: - Balance of risks tilted to the downside, particularly medium-term - Persistent structural problems could increase protectionist pressures - Policy priorities and themes: - Economic policies needed to stave off downside risks and secure recovery - Need for credible strategies in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies - Renewed multilateral effort recommended to tackle common challenges in an integrated global economy - Notable analytical boxes and scenarios in Chapter 1: - Scenario Box 1. Permanent U.S. Fiscal Expansions - Box 1.1. Conflict, Growth, and Migration - Box 1.2. Tackling Measurement Challenges of Irish Economic Activity - Special Feature on Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, focusing on technology and unconventional sources in the global oil market ### Chapter 2: Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) — external environment and growth - EMDE role in the global economy: - Now account for more than 75 percent of global growth in output and consumption - Share is almost double that of two decades earlier - Importance of external conditions: - Terms of trade, external demand, and external financial conditions are increasingly influential determinants of medium-term growth as EMDEs integrate globally - Catch-up prospects and fragility: - Considerable income gaps vis-à-vis advanced economies suggest room for catch-up and relatively strong potential medium-term growth - Catch-up growth is episodic — exhibits accelerations and reversals over time - Prospective external environment: - The global economy may face a less supportive external environment going forward compared with long stretches of the post-2000 period - Policy and structural prescriptions to maximize growth given weaker external impulse: - Strengthen institutional frameworks - Protect trade integration - Permit exchange rate flexibility - Contain vulnerabilities from high current account deficits and external borrowing, as well as large public debt - Chapter 2 analytical structure (high-level): - EMDE growth performance over time - How external conditions influence growth episodes - Role of policies and structural attributes in mediating external impacts - Assessment of current environment implications for EMDE growth prospects ### Chapter 3: Declining labor share of income — facts, drivers, and implications - Core finding: - A downward trend in the labor share of income since the early 1990s, with heterogeneous evolution across countries, industries, and worker skill groups - Main drivers identified: - In advanced economies: - Technological progress, reflected in a steep decline in the relative price of investment goods, and exposure to routine-based occupations explain about half the overall decline - Larger negative impact on earnings of middle-skilled workers - In emerging markets: - Global integration forces, especially expansion of global value chains, predominantly explain labor share evolution by raising overall capital intensity in production - Analytical approach and evidence: - Newly assembled data for a large sample of advanced and emerging market and developing economies - Empirical decompositions, sectoral and skill-level analyses, and robustness checks - Policy implications highlighted: - Understanding sectoral and skill heterogeneity is important for designing policies to address distributional consequences and labor-market adjustments - Supporting materials and boxes: - Box 3.1. Technological Progress and Labor Shares: A Historical Overview - Box 3.2. The Elasticity of Substitution between Capital and Labor: Concept and Estimation - Box 3.3. Routine Tasks, Automation, and Economic Dislocation around the World - Box 3.4. Adjustments to the Labor Share of Income *Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2017: Gaining Momentum?* --- ## Content in this bundle - [040717c (PDF)](/external/chinese/np/blog/2017/040717c.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [041017c (PDF)](/external/chinese/np/blog/2017/041017c.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [041417c (PDF)](/external/chinese/np/blog/2017/041417c.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [041017ja (PDF)](/external/japanese/np/blog/2017/041017ja.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [041017jb (PDF)](/external/japanese/np/blog/2017/041017jb.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [041417ja (PDF)](/external/japanese/np/blog/2017/041417ja.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [041017ar (PDF)](/external/russian/np/blog/2017/041017ar.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [041017r (PDF)](/external/russian/np/blog/2017/041017r.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [041817r (PDF)](/external/russian/np/blog/2017/041817r.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي: هل يتزايد الزخم** - [آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي: هل يتزايد الزخم (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/arabic/pdf/texta.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي: هل يتزايد الزخم (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/arabic/pdf/texta.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **《世界经济展望》序言及概要; 2017年4月** - [《世界经济展望》序言及概要; 2017年4月 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/chinese/pdf/exesumc.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [《世界经济展望》序言及概要; 2017年4月 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/chinese/pdf/exesumc.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [2017年4月IMF《世界经济展望》增长势头加强？ (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/chinese/pdf/textc.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Perspectives de l’économie mondiale, Avril 2017: Un nouvel élan? (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/french/pdf/textf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [世界経済見通し (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/japanese/pdf/textj.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2017; List of Tables, Part B (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/pdf/tblpartb.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **World Economic Outlook: Gaining Momentum? (April 2017) — Selected content unit** - [World Economic Outlook: Gaining Momentum? (April 2017) — Selected content unit (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/pdf/text.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [World Economic Outlook: Gaining Momentum? (April 2017) — Selected content unit (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/pdf/text.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Перспективы развития мировой экономики. Наращивание темпов? апрель 2017 года (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/russian/pdf/fulltextr.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Аналитическое резюме -- Перспективы развития мировой экономики -- апрель 2017 года (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/russian/pdf/textr.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Perspectivas de la economía mundial: ¿Está cobrando impulso?; Abril de 2017 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2017/april/spanish/pdf/texts.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [Podcast with Economic Counsellor Maurice Obstfeld](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/SinglePodcastHighlight.aspx?podcastid=443) - [Video: Summary of the April 2017 World Economic Outlook](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=5401021734001) - [Blog: Global Economy Gaining Momentum—For Now](https://blogs.imf.org/2017/04/18/global-economy-gaining-momentum-for-now/) - [Blog: Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Sustaining Growth in a Less Supportive External Environment](https://blogs.imf.org/2017/04/12/emerging-markets-and-developing-economies-sustaining-growth-in-a-less-supportive-external-environment/) - [Blog: Drivers of Declining Labor Share of Income](https://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2017/04/10/drivers-of-declining-labor-share-of-income/) - [Blog](https://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2017/04/10/drivers-of-declining-labor-share-of-income) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2017/04/04/world-economic-outlook-april-2017_