## World Economic Outlook, October 2018: Challenges to Steady Growth _World Economic Outlook, October 2018_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [World Economic Outlook, October 2018: Challenges to Steady Growth](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2018/09/24/world-economic-outlook-october-2018) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2018/09/24/world-economic-outlook-october-2018/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2018/09/24/world-economic-outlook-october-2018/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2018/09/24/world-economic-outlook-october-2018/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: October 3, 2018 --- ### Global outlook and projections - The steady expansion under way since mid-2016 continues. - Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain at its 2017 level. - Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. - The expansion has become less balanced and may have peaked in some major economies. - Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. - Downward revisions reflect: - surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, - negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, - a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. ### Findings on the recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis - Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007–08. - Sluggish investment was a key channel through which these losses registered. - Long-lasting capital and total factor productivity shortfalls occurred relative to precrisis trends. - Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced postcrisis variation in output. - Countries with greater financial vulnerabilities in the precrisis years suffered larger output losses after the crisis. - Countries with stronger precrisis fiscal positions and those with more flexible exchange rate regimes experienced smaller losses. - Unprecedented and exceptional policy actions taken after the crisis helped mitigate countries’ postcrisis output losses. ### Inflation performance and monetary-policy implications for emerging market and developing economies - Inflation in emerging market and developing economies since the mid-2000s has, on average, been low and stable. - Key findings: - Despite overall stability, sizable heterogeneity in inflation performance and in variability of longer-term inflation expectations remains among emerging markets. - Changes in longer-term inflation expectations are the main determinant of inflation, while external conditions play a more limited role. - Domestic, not global, factors are the main contributor to the recent gains in inflation performance. - Further improvements in the extent of anchoring of inflation expectations can significantly improve economic resilience to adverse external shocks in emerging markets. - Anchoring reduces inflation persistence and limits the pass-through of currency depreciations to domestic prices, allowing monetary policy to focus more on smoothing fluctuations in output. ### Policy implications emphasized - Strengthen macroprudential policies and effective supervision to reduce financial vulnerabilities that amplify postcrisis output losses. - Maintain or build stronger fiscal positions and consider exchange rate flexibility to reduce potential output losses in adverse shocks. - Enhance credibility and anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations in emerging markets to reduce inflation persistence and improve resilience to external shocks. - Recognize the role of exceptional policy actions in mitigating postcrisis losses while assessing longer-term trade-offs. *World Economic Outlook, October 2018: Challenges to Steady Growth* --- ## Content in this bundle - **c2** - [c2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/c2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [c2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/c2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **c3 - Introduction** - [c3 - Introduction (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/c3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [c3 - Introduction (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/c3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 2 Annex** - [Chapter 2 Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/ch2annex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 2 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/ch2annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 3 Annex** - [Chapter 3 Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/ch3annex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 3 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/ch3annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **C1** - [C1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/c1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [C1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/c1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 1 Annex** - [Chapter 1 Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/ch1annex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 1 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/ch1annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Executive Summary** - [Executive Summary (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/exesum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Executive Summary (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/exesum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Foreword** - [Foreword (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/foreword.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Foreword (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/foreword.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **statapp** - [statapp (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/statapp.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [statapp (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/statapp.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Table parta** - [Table parta (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/tableparta.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Table parta (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/tableparta.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Table partb** - [Table partb (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/tablepartb.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Table partb (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/tablepartb.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Full Report** - [Full Report (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/text.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Full Report (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/main-report/text.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Dataset: WEO Chapter 2 Oct. 2018** - [Dataset: WEO Chapter 2 Oct. 2018 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/weooct2018-ch2.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2018 — Dataset overview** - [WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2018 — Dataset overview (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2018/october/english/weooct2018-ch3.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} --- ## References - [Blog: Global Growth Plateaus as Economic Risks Materialize](https://blogs.imf.org/2018/10/08/global-growth-plateaus-as-economic-risks-materialize) - [Blog: Lasting Effects: The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the Crisis](https://blogs.imf.org/2018/10/03/lasting-effects-the-global-economic-recovery-10-years-after-the-crisis) - [Blog: Central Bank Credibility Pays Off in Times of Stress](https://blogs.imf.org/2018/10/03/central-bank-credibility-pays-off-in-times-of-stress) - [Transcript: Press Conference on the Release of the October 2018 World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/10/09/tr100918-transcript-of-press-conference-on-release-of-october-2018-world-economic-outlook) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2018/09/24/world-economic-outlook-october-2018_