{ "title": "World Economic Outlook, April 2019: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, April 2019", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019/index.md", "summary": "After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. Global growth is now projected to slow from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 3.3 percent in 2019, before returning to 3.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Global growth projections and headline prospects", "content": "- Global growth is projected to slow from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 3.3 percent in 2019, before returning to 3.6 percent in 2020.\n- After peaking at close to 4 percent in 2017, global growth remained strong, at 3.8 percent in the first half of 2018, but dropped to 3.2 percent in the second half of the year.\n- Following a broad-based upswing in cyclical growth that lasted nearly two years, the global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018." }, { "heading": "Drivers of the 2018 slowdown and near-term risks", "content": "- Trade tensions and tariff hikes between the United States and China contributed to an increase in policy uncertainty and a decline in business confidence.\n- A tightening of financial conditions and worsened financial market sentiment weighed on global demand, affecting vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and advanced economies later in the year.\n- Country- and sector-specific factors further reduced momentum:\n - China’s growth declined following regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States.\n - The euro area lost more momentum as consumer and business confidence weakened; car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards.\n - Investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened.\n - External demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened.\n - Natural disasters hurt activity in Japan.\n- Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but conditions remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall." }, { "heading": "Analytical chapters and thematic focus", "content": "- Chapter 2: The Rise of Corporate Market Power and Its Macroeconomic Effects\n- Chapter 3: The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat?\n- Chapter 4: Drivers of Bilateral Trade and Spillovers from Tariffs" }, { "heading": "Key findings from Chapter 2: The Rise of Corporate Market Power and Its Macroeconomic Effects", "content": "- Three main takeaways from cross-country firm-level analysis:\n - Market power has increased moderately across advanced economies, as indicated by firms’ price markups over marginal costs rising by close to 8 percent since 2000, but not in emerging market economies.\n - The increase has been fairly widespread across advanced economies and industries, but within them, it has been concentrated among a small fraction of dynamic—more productive and innovative—firms.\n - Although the overall macroeconomic implications have been modest so far, further increases in the market power of these already-powerful firms could:\n - Weaken investment.\n - Deter innovation.\n - Reduce labor income shares.\n - Make it more difficult for monetary policy to stabilize output.\n\nWorld Economic Outlook, April 2019: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery — IMF\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Chapter 1\n - Chapter 1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 1 Annex\n - Chapter 1 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2\n - Chapter 2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2 Annex\n - Chapter 2 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3\n - Chapter 3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3 Annex\n - Chapter 3 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 3 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 4\n - Chapter 4 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 4 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 4 Annex\n - Chapter 4 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 4 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Dataset overview: WEO Chapter 1 Apr. 2019\n - Dataset overview: WEO Chapter 1 Apr. 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Dataset overview: WEO Chapter 1 Apr. 2019 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- WEO Chapter 2 Apr. 2019\n - WEO Chapter 2 Apr. 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - WEO Chapter 2 Apr. 2019 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2019\n - WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2019 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2019\n - WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2019 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Executive Summary\n - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Foreword\n - Foreword (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Foreword (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- World Economic Outlook, Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery, Statistical Appendix, April 2019, IMF\n - World Economic Outlook, Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery, Statistical Appendix, April 2019, IMF (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - World Economic Outlook, Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery, Statistical Appendix, April 2019, IMF (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table a\n - Table a (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Table a (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table b\n - Table b (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Table b (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Full Report\n - Full Report (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Full Report (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2019/april/weo-arrows-april-2019.png\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Blog\n- Blog\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: April 2, 2019", "Global growth is projected to slow from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 3.3 percent in 2019, before returning to 3.6 percent in 2020.", "After peaking at close to 4 percent in 2017, global growth remained strong, at 3.8 percent in the first half of 2018, but dropped to 3.2 percent in the second half of the year.", "Following a broad-based upswing in cyclical growth that lasted nearly two years, the global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018.", "Trade tensions and tariff hikes between the United States and China contributed to an increase in policy uncertainty and a decline in business confidence.", "A tightening of financial conditions and worsened financial market sentiment weighed on global demand, affecting vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and advanced economies later in the year.", "Country- and sector-specific factors further reduced momentum:", "Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but conditions remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall.", "Chapter 2: The Rise of Corporate Market Power and Its Macroeconomic Effects", "Chapter 3: The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat?", "Chapter 4: Drivers of Bilateral Trade and Spillovers from Tariffs", "Three main takeaways from cross-country firm-level analysis:", "**Chapter 1**", "**Chapter 1 Annex**", "**Chapter 2**", "**Chapter 2 Annex**", "**Chapter 3**", "**Chapter 3 Annex**", "**Chapter 4**", "**Chapter 4 Annex**", "**Dataset overview: WEO Chapter 1 Apr. 2019**", "**WEO Chapter 2 Apr. 2019**", "**WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2019**", "**WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2019**", "**Executive Summary**", "**Foreword**", "**World Economic Outlook, Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery, Statistical Appendix, April 2019, IMF**", "**Table a**", "**Table b**", "**Full Report**", "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2019/april/weo-arrows-april-2019.png](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2019/april/weo-arrows-april-2019.png)", "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)", "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)", "[Blog](https://blogs.imf.org/2019/04/08/the-global-economy-a-delicate-moment/)", "[Blog](https://blogs.imf.org/2019/04/03/how-to-keep-corporate-power-in-check)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Chapter 1", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch1.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch1.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch1.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 1 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch1annex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch1annex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch1annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch2.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch2.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch2.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch2annex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch2annex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch2annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 3", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch3.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch3.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch3.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 3 Annex", 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"binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch4annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Dataset overview: WEO Chapter 1 Apr. 2019", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/data/weoapr2019-ch1.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/data/weoapr2019-ch1.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "WEO Chapter 2 Apr. 2019", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/data/weoapr2019-ch2.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/data/weoapr2019-ch2.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2019", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/data/weoapr2019-ch3.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/data/weoapr2019-ch3.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2019", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/data/weoapr2019-ch4.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/data/weoapr2019-ch4.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "Executive Summary", "role": "executive-summary", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/execsum.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/execsum.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/execsum.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Foreword", "role": "foreword", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/foreword.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/foreword.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/foreword.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "World Economic Outlook, Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery, Statistical Appendix, April 2019, IMF", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/statapp.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/statapp.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/statapp.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Table a", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/tablea.pdf", "summary": { "path": 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