## World Economic Outlook, April 2019: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery _World Economic Outlook, April 2019_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [World Economic Outlook, April 2019: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: April 2, 2019 --- ### Global growth projections and headline prospects - Global growth is projected to slow from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 3.3 percent in 2019, before returning to 3.6 percent in 2020. - After peaking at close to 4 percent in 2017, global growth remained strong, at 3.8 percent in the first half of 2018, but dropped to 3.2 percent in the second half of the year. - Following a broad-based upswing in cyclical growth that lasted nearly two years, the global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018. ### Drivers of the 2018 slowdown and near-term risks - Trade tensions and tariff hikes between the United States and China contributed to an increase in policy uncertainty and a decline in business confidence. - A tightening of financial conditions and worsened financial market sentiment weighed on global demand, affecting vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and advanced economies later in the year. - Country- and sector-specific factors further reduced momentum: - China’s growth declined following regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. - The euro area lost more momentum as consumer and business confidence weakened; car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards. - Investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened. - External demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. - Natural disasters hurt activity in Japan. - Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but conditions remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall. ### Analytical chapters and thematic focus - Chapter 2: The Rise of Corporate Market Power and Its Macroeconomic Effects - Chapter 3: The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat? - Chapter 4: Drivers of Bilateral Trade and Spillovers from Tariffs ### Key findings from Chapter 2: The Rise of Corporate Market Power and Its Macroeconomic Effects - Three main takeaways from cross-country firm-level analysis: - Market power has increased moderately across advanced economies, as indicated by firms’ price markups over marginal costs rising by close to 8 percent since 2000, but not in emerging market economies. - The increase has been fairly widespread across advanced economies and industries, but within them, it has been concentrated among a small fraction of dynamic—more productive and innovative—firms. - Although the overall macroeconomic implications have been modest so far, further increases in the market power of these already-powerful firms could: - Weaken investment. - Deter innovation. - Reduce labor income shares. - Make it more difficult for monetary policy to stabilize output. *World Economic Outlook, April 2019: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery — IMF* --- ## Content in this bundle - **Chapter 1** - [Chapter 1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 1 Annex** - [Chapter 1 Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch1annex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 1 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch1annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 2** - [Chapter 2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 2 Annex** - [Chapter 2 Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch2annex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 2 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch2annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 3** - [Chapter 3 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 3 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 3 Annex** - [Chapter 3 Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch3annex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 3 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch3annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 4** - [Chapter 4 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch4.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 4 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch4.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 4 Annex** - [Chapter 4 Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch4annex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 4 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/ch4annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Dataset overview: WEO Chapter 1 Apr. 2019** - [Dataset overview: WEO Chapter 1 Apr. 2019 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/data/weoapr2019-ch1.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **WEO Chapter 2 Apr. 2019** - [WEO Chapter 2 Apr. 2019 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/data/weoapr2019-ch2.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2019** - [WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2019 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/data/weoapr2019-ch3.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2019** - [WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2019 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/data/weoapr2019-ch4.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **Executive Summary** - [Executive Summary (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/execsum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Executive Summary (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/execsum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Foreword** - [Foreword (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/foreword.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Foreword (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/foreword.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **World Economic Outlook, Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery, Statistical Appendix, April 2019, IMF** - [World Economic Outlook, Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery, Statistical Appendix, April 2019, IMF (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/statapp.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [World Economic Outlook, Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery, Statistical Appendix, April 2019, IMF (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/statapp.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Table a** - [Table a (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/tablea.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Table a (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/tablea.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Table b** - [Table b (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/tableb.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Table b (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/tableb.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Full Report** - [Full Report (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/text.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Full Report (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/text.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2019/april/weo-arrows-april-2019.png](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2019/april/weo-arrows-april-2019.png) - [Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index) - [Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login) - [Blog](https://blogs.imf.org/2019/04/08/the-global-economy-a-delicate-moment/) - [Blog](https://blogs.imf.org/2019/04/03/how-to-keep-corporate-power-in-check) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019_