{ "title": "World Economic Outlook, October 2019: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, October 2019", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019/index.md", "summary": "After slowing sharply in the last three quarters of 2018, the pace of global economic activity remains weak. Momentum in manufacturing activity, in particular, has weakened substantially, to levels not seen since the global financial crisis.", "publishDate": "2019-10-15", "sections": [ { "heading": "Global outlook and growth projections", "content": "- Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.\n- Growth is projected to pick up to 3.4 percent in 2020 (a 0.2 percentage point downward revision compared with April).\n- The projected 2020 pickup primarily reflects a projected improvement in economic performance in a number of emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East, and emerging and developing Europe that are under macroeconomic strain.\n- The outlook remains precarious given:\n - uncertainty about prospects for several emerging market and strained economies;\n - a projected slowdown in China and the United States;\n - prominent downside risks that could produce a much more subdued pace of global activity." }, { "heading": "Manufacturing, trade, and financial conditions", "content": "- Momentum in manufacturing activity has weakened substantially, to levels not seen since the global financial crisis.\n- Rising trade and geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty about the future of the global trading system and international cooperation more generally.\n- These tensions have taken a toll on:\n - business confidence;\n - investment decisions;\n - global trade.\n- A notable shift toward increased monetary policy accommodation—through both action and communication—has cushioned the impact of these tensions on financial market sentiment and activity.\n- A generally resilient service sector has supported employment growth despite weakness elsewhere." }, { "heading": "Policy recommendations and priorities", "content": "- To forestall a significantly more subdued global outcome, policies should decisively aim at:\n - defusing trade tensions;\n - reinvigorating multilateral cooperation;\n - providing timely support to economic activity where needed.\n- To strengthen resilience, policymakers should address financial vulnerabilities that pose risks to growth in the medium term.\n- Making growth more inclusive should remain an overarching goal to secure better economic prospects for all.\n\nWorld Economic Outlook, October 2019: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Chapter 1\n - Chapter 1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 1 Annex\n - Chapter 1 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2\n - Chapter 2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2 Annex\n - Chapter 2 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3\n - Chapter 3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3 Annex\n - Chapter 3 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 3 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Dataset overview\n - Dataset overview (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Dataset overview (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2019\n - WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2019 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Executive Summary\n - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Foreword\n - Foreword (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Foreword (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- statapp\n - statapp (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - statapp (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table a\n - Table a (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Table a (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table b\n - Table b (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Table b (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Full Report\n - Full Report (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Full Report (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2019/october/weoarrows-oct2019.png\n- IMF Authors: Romain Duval and David Furceri; Interviewer: Brian Cheung, Yahoo Finance\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: October 15, 2019", "Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.", "Growth is projected to pick up to 3.4 percent in 2020 (a 0.2 percentage point downward revision compared with April).", "The projected 2020 pickup primarily reflects a projected improvement in economic performance in a number of emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East, and emerging and developing Europe that are under macroeconomic strain.", "The outlook remains precarious given:", "Momentum in manufacturing activity has weakened substantially, to levels not seen since the global financial crisis.", "Rising trade and geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty about the future of the global trading system and international cooperation more generally.", "These tensions have taken a toll on:", "A notable shift toward increased monetary policy accommodation—through both action and communication—has cushioned the impact of these tensions on financial market sentiment and activity.", "A generally resilient service sector has supported employment growth despite weakness elsewhere.", "To forestall a significantly more subdued global outcome, policies should decisively aim at:", "To strengthen resilience, policymakers should address financial vulnerabilities that pose risks to growth in the medium term.", "Making growth more inclusive should remain an overarching goal to secure better economic prospects for all.", "**Chapter 1**", "**Chapter 1 Annex**", "**Chapter 2**", "**Chapter 2 Annex**", "**Chapter 3**", "**Chapter 3 Annex**", "**Dataset overview**", "**WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2019**", "**Executive Summary**", "**Foreword**", "**statapp**", "**Table a**", "**Table b**", "**Full Report**", "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2019/october/weoarrows-oct2019.png](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2019/october/weoarrows-oct2019.png)", "[IMF Authors: Romain Duval and David Furceri; Interviewer: Brian Cheung, Yahoo Finance](https://www.imf.org/en/videos/view/6093485347001)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Chapter 1", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch1.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch1.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": 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"https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch2annex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch2annex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch2annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 3", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch3.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch3.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch3.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 3 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch3annex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch3annex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch3annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Dataset overview", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/data/weooct2019-ch2.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/data/weooct2019-ch2.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2019", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/data/weooct2019-ch3.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/data/weooct2019-ch3.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "Executive Summary", "role": "executive-summary", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/execsum.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/execsum.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/execsum.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Foreword", "role": "foreword", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/foreword.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/foreword.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/foreword.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "statapp", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/statapp.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/statapp.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/statapp.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Table a", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/tablea.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/tablea.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/tablea.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Table b", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/tableb.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/tableb.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/tableb.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Full Report", "role": "full-report", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/text.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/text.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, 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