## World Economic Outlook, October 2019: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers

_World Economic Outlook, October 2019_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [World Economic Outlook, October 2019: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: October 15, 2019

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### Global outlook and growth projections
- Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.
- Growth is projected to pick up to 3.4 percent in 2020 (a 0.2 percentage point downward revision compared with April).
- The projected 2020 pickup primarily reflects a projected improvement in economic performance in a number of emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East, and emerging and developing Europe that are under macroeconomic strain.
- The outlook remains precarious given:
  - uncertainty about prospects for several emerging market and strained economies;
  - a projected slowdown in China and the United States;
  - prominent downside risks that could produce a much more subdued pace of global activity.

### Manufacturing, trade, and financial conditions
- Momentum in manufacturing activity has weakened substantially, to levels not seen since the global financial crisis.
- Rising trade and geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty about the future of the global trading system and international cooperation more generally.
- These tensions have taken a toll on:
  - business confidence;
  - investment decisions;
  - global trade.
- A notable shift toward increased monetary policy accommodation—through both action and communication—has cushioned the impact of these tensions on financial market sentiment and activity.
- A generally resilient service sector has supported employment growth despite weakness elsewhere.

### Policy recommendations and priorities
- To forestall a significantly more subdued global outcome, policies should decisively aim at:
  - defusing trade tensions;
  - reinvigorating multilateral cooperation;
  - providing timely support to economic activity where needed.
- To strengthen resilience, policymakers should address financial vulnerabilities that pose risks to growth in the medium term.
- Making growth more inclusive should remain an overarching goal to secure better economic prospects for all.

*World Economic Outlook, October 2019: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **Chapter 1**
  - [Chapter 1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 1 Annex**
  - [Chapter 1 Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch1annex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 1 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch1annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 2**
  - [Chapter 2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 2 Annex**
  - [Chapter 2 Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch2annex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 2 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch2annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 3**
  - [Chapter 3 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 3 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 3 Annex**
  - [Chapter 3 Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch3annex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 3 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/ch3annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Dataset overview**
  - [Dataset overview (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/data/weooct2019-ch2.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"}
- **WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2019**
  - [WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2019 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/data/weooct2019-ch3.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"}
- **Executive Summary**
  - [Executive Summary (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/execsum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Executive Summary (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/execsum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Foreword**
  - [Foreword (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/foreword.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Foreword (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/foreword.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **statapp**
  - [statapp (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/statapp.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [statapp (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/statapp.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Table a**
  - [Table a (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/tablea.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Table a (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/tablea.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Table b**
  - [Table b (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/tableb.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Table b (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/tableb.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Full Report**
  - [Full Report (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/text.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Full Report (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/october/english/text.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

## References

- [https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2019/october/weoarrows-oct2019.png](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/weo/2019/october/weoarrows-oct2019.png)
- [IMF Authors: Romain Duval and David Furceri; Interviewer: Brian Cheung, Yahoo Finance](https://www.imf.org/en/videos/view/6093485347001)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019_