{ "title": "World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, March 2021", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021/index.md", "summary": "Global growth is projected at 6% in 2021, moderating to 4.4% in 2022. The projections for 2021 and 2022 are stronger than in the October 2020 WEO.", "publishDate": "2021-03-23", "sections": [ { "heading": "Global outlook and key projections", "content": "- Global growth is projected at 6 percent in 2021, moderating to 4.4 percent in 2022.\n- Projections for 2021 and 2022 are stronger than in the October 2020 WEO.\n- Upward revision drivers:\n - Additional fiscal support in a few large economies.\n - Anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of 2021.\n - Continued adaptation of economic activity to subdued mobility.\n- High uncertainty surrounds the outlook, driven by:\n - The path of the pandemic, including new virus mutations.\n - Effectiveness of policy support to bridge to vaccine-powered normalization.\n - Evolution of financial conditions." }, { "heading": "Global prospects, divergence, and risks", "content": "- Recoveries are diverging across countries and sectors due to:\n - Variation in pandemic-induced disruptions.\n - Differences in the extent of policy support.\n- The strength of the recovery depends crucially on rapid rollout of effective vaccines worldwide.\n- Risks highlighted:\n - Accumulating human toll from the pandemic.\n - Potential for persistent increases in within-country inequality and divergence in income per capita across economies." }, { "heading": "Medium-term damage (scarring) from the COVID-19 recession", "content": "- Expected medium-term losses:\n - Global output is expected to be about 3 percent lower than pre-pandemic anticipated output for the world in 2024.\n- Relative impact by country group:\n - Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.\n- Financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided so far in this crisis." }, { "heading": "Labor market fallout and policy responses", "content": "- Labor market impacts:\n - Young and lower-skilled workers are particularly hard-hit.\n - Preexisting trends favoring a shift away from jobs more vulnerable to automation are accelerating.\n- Policy implications for labor markets:\n - Job-retention support is extremely powerful at reducing scarring and mitigating unequal impacts.\n - As the pandemic subsides, shifting toward worker reallocation support measures could:\n - Help reduce unemployment more quickly.\n - Ease adjustment to the permanent effects of the COVID-19 shock on the labor market." }, { "heading": "Monetary policy spillovers and emerging market vulnerabilities", "content": "- Early pandemic monetary easing by advanced economies provided much financial relief to emerging markets.\n- Multispeed recovery challenges:\n - A US tightening resulting from a stronger US economy tends to be benign for most emerging market economies.\n - A surprise tightening triggers capital outflows from emerging markets.\n- Policy recommendations to reduce vulnerability:\n - Advanced economies should clearly explain how they will implement monetary policies during the recovery.\n - Emerging market economies can reduce vulnerability by adopting more transparent and rules-based monetary and fiscal frameworks.\n\nSource: World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Annex 1.SF.1. Food Insecurity and the Business Cycle\n - Annex 1.SF.1. Food Insecurity and the Business Cycle (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Annex 1.SF.1. Food Insecurity and the Business Cycle (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Microsoft Word - April2021WEOChapter2 - Online Annex - FINAL\n - Microsoft Word - April2021WEOChapter2 - Online Annex - FINAL (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Microsoft Word - April2021WEOChapter2 - Online Annex - FINAL (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- DMSDR1S-7011397-v10-April2021WEO-Chapter3-OnlineAnnex\n - DMSDR1S-7011397-v10-April2021WEO-Chapter3-OnlineAnnex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - DMSDR1S-7011397-v10-April2021WEO-Chapter3-OnlineAnnex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Microsoft Word - DMSDR1S-7019343-v12-2021WEOChapter4Annex\n - Microsoft Word - DMSDR1S-7019343-v12-2021WEOChapter4Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Microsoft Word - DMSDR1S-7019343-v12-2021WEOChapter4Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 1\n - Chapter 1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2\n - Chapter 2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3\n - Chapter 3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 4\n - Chapter 4 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 4 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Dataset overview: table1-apr2021weo\n - Dataset overview: table1-apr2021weo (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Dataset overview: table1-apr2021weo (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Dataset overview\n - Dataset overview (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Dataset overview (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2021\n - Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2021 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2021 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Dataset overview\n - Dataset overview (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Dataset overview (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Executive Summary\n - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Foreword\n - Foreword (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Foreword (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- stasapp - Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com-\n - stasapp - Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com- (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - stasapp - Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com- (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- tablea\n - tablea (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - tablea (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- tableb\n - tableb (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - tableb (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Full Report\n - Full Report (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Full Report (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- DataMapper\n- Blog by Gita Gopinath\n- Press Conference\n- April 2021 Database\n- APRIL 2021 database\n- watch the video\n- Podcast\n- watch the video\n- blog by imf staff\n- watch the video\n- blog by imf staff\n- Blog by IMF staff\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: March 23, 2021", "Global growth is projected at 6 percent in 2021, moderating to 4.4 percent in 2022.", "Projections for 2021 and 2022 are stronger than in the October 2020 WEO.", "Upward revision drivers:", "High uncertainty surrounds the outlook, driven by:", "Recoveries are diverging across countries and sectors due to:", "The strength of the recovery depends crucially on rapid rollout of effective vaccines worldwide.", "Risks highlighted:", "Expected medium-term losses:", "Relative impact by country group:", "Financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided so far in this crisis.", "Labor market impacts:", "Policy implications for labor markets:", "Early pandemic monetary easing by advanced economies provided much financial relief to emerging markets.", "Multispeed recovery challenges:", "Policy recommendations to reduce vulnerability:", "**Annex 1.SF.1. Food Insecurity and the Business Cycle**", "**Microsoft Word - April2021_WEO_Chapter2 - Online Annex - FINAL**", "**DMSDR1S-#7011397-v10-April_2021_WEO_-_Chapter_3_-_Online_Annex**", "**Microsoft Word - DMSDR1S-#7019343-v12-2021_WEO_Chapter_4_Annex**", "**Chapter 1**", "**Chapter 2**", "**Chapter 3**", "**Chapter 4**", "**Dataset overview: table1-apr2021weo**", "**Dataset overview**", "**Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2021**", "**Dataset overview**", "**Executive Summary**", "**Foreword**", "**stasapp - Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com-**", "**tablea**", "**tableb**", "**Full Report**", "[DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO)", "[Blog by Gita Gopinath](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/04/06/managing-divergent-recoveries/)", "[Press Conference](https://meetings.imf.org/en/2021/Spring/Videos?videoId=6246864473001)", "[April 2021 Database](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/weo-database/2021/april)", "[APRIL 2021 database](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/April)", "[watch the video](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=6246140748001)", "[Podcast](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/All-Podcasts/2021/04/06/weo-april-2021)", "[watch the video](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=6245727396001)", "[blog by imf staff](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/03/31/slow-healing-scars-the-pandemics-legacy/)", "[watch the video](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=6245740109001)", "[blog by imf staff](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/03/31/working-out-the-differences-labor-policies-for-a-fairer-recovery/)", "[Blog by IMF staff](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/04/05/how-rising-interest-rates-could-affect-emerging-markets/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Annex 1.SF.1. Food Insecurity and the Business Cycle", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch1.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch1.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch1.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Microsoft Word - April2021_WEO_Chapter2 - Online Annex - FINAL", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch2.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch2.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch2.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "DMSDR1S-#7011397-v10-April_2021_WEO_-_Chapter_3_-_Online_Annex", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch3.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch3.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch3.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Microsoft Word - DMSDR1S-#7019343-v12-2021_WEO_Chapter_4_Annex", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch4.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch4.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch4.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 1", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch1.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch1.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch1.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch2.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch2.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch2.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 3", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch3.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch3.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch3.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 4", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch4.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch4.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch4.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Dataset overview: table1-apr2021weo", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/data/table1-apr2021weo.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/data/table1-apr2021weo.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "Dataset overview", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/data/weoapril-2021ch2.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/data/weoapril-2021ch2.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2021", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/data/weoapril-2021ch3.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/data/weoapril-2021ch3.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "Dataset overview", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/data/weoapril2021-ch1.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/data/weoapril2021-ch1.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "Executive Summary", "role": "executive-summary", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/execsum.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/execsum.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/execsum.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Foreword", "role": "foreword", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/foreword.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/foreword.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/foreword.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "stasapp - Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com-", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/stasapp.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/stasapp.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/stasapp.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "tablea", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/tablea.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/tablea.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/tablea.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "tableb", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/tableb.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/tableb.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/tableb.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Full Report", "role": "full-report", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/text.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/text.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/text.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021/index.md", "json": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-27T18:44:52.554Z" }