## World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries

_World Economic Outlook, March 2021_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: March 23, 2021

---

### Global outlook and key projections
- Global growth is projected at 6 percent in 2021, moderating to 4.4 percent in 2022.
- Projections for 2021 and 2022 are stronger than in the October 2020 WEO.
- Upward revision drivers:
  - Additional fiscal support in a few large economies.
  - Anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of 2021.
  - Continued adaptation of economic activity to subdued mobility.
- High uncertainty surrounds the outlook, driven by:
  - The path of the pandemic, including new virus mutations.
  - Effectiveness of policy support to bridge to vaccine-powered normalization.
  - Evolution of financial conditions.

### Global prospects, divergence, and risks
- Recoveries are diverging across countries and sectors due to:
  - Variation in pandemic-induced disruptions.
  - Differences in the extent of policy support.
- The strength of the recovery depends crucially on rapid rollout of effective vaccines worldwide.
- Risks highlighted:
  - Accumulating human toll from the pandemic.
  - Potential for persistent increases in within-country inequality and divergence in income per capita across economies.

### Medium-term damage (scarring) from the COVID-19 recession
- Expected medium-term losses:
  - Global output is expected to be about 3 percent lower than pre-pandemic anticipated output for the world in 2024.
- Relative impact by country group:
  - Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.
- Financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided so far in this crisis.

### Labor market fallout and policy responses
- Labor market impacts:
  - Young and lower-skilled workers are particularly hard-hit.
  - Preexisting trends favoring a shift away from jobs more vulnerable to automation are accelerating.
- Policy implications for labor markets:
  - Job-retention support is extremely powerful at reducing scarring and mitigating unequal impacts.
  - As the pandemic subsides, shifting toward worker reallocation support measures could:
    - Help reduce unemployment more quickly.
    - Ease adjustment to the permanent effects of the COVID-19 shock on the labor market.

### Monetary policy spillovers and emerging market vulnerabilities
- Early pandemic monetary easing by advanced economies provided much financial relief to emerging markets.
- Multispeed recovery challenges:
  - A US tightening resulting from a stronger US economy tends to be benign for most emerging market economies.
  - A surprise tightening triggers capital outflows from emerging markets.
- Policy recommendations to reduce vulnerability:
  - Advanced economies should clearly explain how they will implement monetary policies during the recovery.
  - Emerging market economies can reduce vulnerability by adopting more transparent and rules-based monetary and fiscal frameworks.

*Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **Annex 1.SF.1. Food Insecurity and the Business Cycle**
  - [Annex 1.SF.1. Food Insecurity and the Business Cycle (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Annex 1.SF.1. Food Insecurity and the Business Cycle (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Microsoft Word - April2021_WEO_Chapter2 - Online Annex - FINAL**
  - [Microsoft Word - April2021_WEO_Chapter2 - Online Annex - FINAL (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Microsoft Word - April2021_WEO_Chapter2 - Online Annex - FINAL (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **DMSDR1S-#7011397-v10-April_2021_WEO_-_Chapter_3_-_Online_Annex**
  - [DMSDR1S-#7011397-v10-April_2021_WEO_-_Chapter_3_-_Online_Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [DMSDR1S-#7011397-v10-April_2021_WEO_-_Chapter_3_-_Online_Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Microsoft Word - DMSDR1S-#7019343-v12-2021_WEO_Chapter_4_Annex**
  - [Microsoft Word - DMSDR1S-#7019343-v12-2021_WEO_Chapter_4_Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch4.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Microsoft Word - DMSDR1S-#7019343-v12-2021_WEO_Chapter_4_Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/annexch4.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 1**
  - [Chapter 1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 2**
  - [Chapter 2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 3**
  - [Chapter 3 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 3 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 4**
  - [Chapter 4 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch4.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 4 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/ch4.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Dataset overview: table1-apr2021weo**
  - [Dataset overview: table1-apr2021weo (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/data/table1-apr2021weo.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"}
- **Dataset overview**
  - [Dataset overview (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/data/weoapril-2021ch2.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"}
- **Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2021**
  - [Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2021 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/data/weoapril-2021ch3.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"}
- **Dataset overview**
  - [Dataset overview (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/data/weoapril2021-ch1.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"}
- **Executive Summary**
  - [Executive Summary (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/execsum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Executive Summary (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/execsum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Foreword**
  - [Foreword (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/foreword.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Foreword (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/foreword.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **stasapp - Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com-**
  - [stasapp - Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com- (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/stasapp.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [stasapp - Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com- (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/stasapp.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **tablea**
  - [tablea (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/tablea.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [tablea (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/tablea.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **tableb**
  - [tableb (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/tableb.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [tableb (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/tableb.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Full Report**
  - [Full Report (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/text.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Full Report (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/text.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

## References

- [DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO)
- [Blog by Gita Gopinath](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/04/06/managing-divergent-recoveries/)
- [Press Conference](https://meetings.imf.org/en/2021/Spring/Videos?videoId=6246864473001)
- [April 2021 Database](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/weo-database/2021/april)
- [APRIL 2021 database](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/April)
- [watch the video](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=6246140748001)
- [Podcast](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/All-Podcasts/2021/04/06/weo-april-2021)
- [watch the video](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=6245727396001)
- [blog by imf staff](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/03/31/slow-healing-scars-the-pandemics-legacy/)
- [watch the video](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=6245740109001)
- [blog by imf staff](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/03/31/working-out-the-differences-labor-policies-for-a-fairer-recovery/)
- [Blog by IMF staff](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/04/05/how-rising-interest-rates-could-affect-emerging-markets/)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021_