{ "title": "World Economic Outlook, October 2021: Recovery During A Pandemic", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, October 2021", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021/index.md", "summary": "This report shows that the global economic recovery continues amid a resurging pandemic that poses unique policy challenges and requires strong multilateral effort.", "publishDate": "2021-10-12", "sections": [ { "heading": "Global recovery: current state and projections", "content": "- The global economic recovery is continuing amid a resurging pandemic that poses unique policy challenges and requires strong multilateral effort.\n- The global economy is projected to grow 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022, 0.1 percentage point lower for 2021 than in the July forecast.\n- The downward revision for 2021 reflects:\n - a downgrade for advanced economies—in part due to supply disruptions; and\n - a downgrade for low-income developing countries, largely due to worsening pandemic dynamics.\n- Partially offsetting factors include stronger near-term prospects among some commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies.\n- Rapid spread of Delta and the threat of new variants have increased uncertainty about how quickly the pandemic can be overcome.\n- Policy choices have become more difficult, with limited room to maneuver." }, { "heading": "Global prospects and policy priorities", "content": "- Gaps in expected recoveries across economy groups have widened since the July forecast, for instance between advanced economies and low-income developing countries.\n- Inflation has increased markedly in the United States and some emerging market economies.\n- As restrictions are relaxed:\n - demand has accelerated; and\n - supply has been slower to respond, contributing to price pressures.\n- Although price pressures are expected to subside in most countries in 2022, inflation prospects are highly uncertain.\n- Employment remains below pre-pandemic levels in many economies, forcing difficult policy trade-offs.\n- Recommended multilateral actions:\n - strong policy effort on vaccine deployment;\n - action on climate change; and\n - measures to strengthen international liquidity.\n- National policy guidance:\n - policies should be tailored to country-specific conditions and better targeted; and\n - recognize that policy space constraints become more binding the longer the pandemic lasts." }, { "heading": "Inflation Scares: outlook and policy implications", "content": "- Despite recent increases in headline inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored.\n- Headline inflation is projected to peak in the final months of 2021 but is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022 for most economies.\n- Considerable uncertainty remains; inflation could exceed forecasts for a variety of reasons.\n- Policy recommendations to address inflation risks:\n - clear communication; and\n - appropriate monetary and fiscal policies to help prevent “inflation scares” from unhinging inflation expectations." }, { "heading": "Research and innovation: supporting long-term growth", "content": "- Basic research—undirected, theoretical, or experimental work—is identified as an essential input into innovation.\n- New data that draw on connections from individual innovations and scientific articles show:\n - wide-ranging international spillovers from basic research; and\n - long-lasting economic impacts.\n- Policy implication: supporting basic research can help fight the pandemic and boost long-term growth.\n\nWorld Economic Outlook, October 2021: Recovery During a Pandemic\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Chapter 1\n - Chapter 1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 1 Annex\n - Chapter 1 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2\n - Chapter 2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2 Annex\n - Chapter 2 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3\n - Chapter 3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3 Annex\n - Chapter 3 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table1 Oct2021weo\n - Table1 Oct2021weo (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- WEO Chapter 2 (October 2021) — Dataset overview\n - WEO Chapter 2 (October 2021) — Dataset overview (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - WEO Chapter 2 (October 2021) — Dataset overview (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- WEO Chapter 3 Oct 2021 — Dataset overview\n - WEO Chapter 3 Oct 2021 — Dataset overview (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - WEO Chapter 3 Oct 2021 — Dataset overview (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- WEO Chapter 1 Oct. 2021 — Dataset overview\n - WEO Chapter 1 Oct. 2021 — Dataset overview (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - WEO Chapter 1 Oct. 2021 — Dataset overview (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- IMF World Economic Outlook, recovery during a pandemic, executive summary, October 2021\n - IMF World Economic Outlook, recovery during a pandemic, executive summary, October 2021 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Foreword\n - Foreword (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- World Economic Outlook, recovery during a pandemic, statistical appendix, October 2021\n - World Economic Outlook, recovery during a pandemic, statistical appendix, October 2021 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- World Economic Outlook, Recovery during a Pandemic, statistical appendix, table B1-B21, October 2021\n - World Economic Outlook, Recovery during a Pandemic, statistical appendix, table B1-B21, October 2021 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- World Economic Outlook, Recovery during a Pandemic, statistical appendix, October 2021\n - World Economic Outlook, Recovery during a Pandemic, statistical appendix, October 2021 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Full Report\n - Full Report (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- DataMapper\n- Blog by Gita Gopinath\n- October 2021 Database\n- Press Briefing\n- Blog by Gita Gopinath\n- PODCAST\n- https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/inflation-scares-in-an-uncharted-recovery\n- blog by imf staff\n- Podcast\n- https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/why-basic-science-matters-for-economic-growth/\n- watch the video\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: October 12, 2021", "The global economic recovery is continuing amid a resurging pandemic that poses unique policy challenges and requires strong multilateral effort.", "The global economy is projected to grow 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022, 0.1 percentage point lower for 2021 than in the July forecast.", "The downward revision for 2021 reflects:", "Partially offsetting factors include stronger near-term prospects among some commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies.", "Rapid spread of Delta and the threat of new variants have increased uncertainty about how quickly the pandemic can be overcome.", "Policy choices have become more difficult, with limited room to maneuver.", "Gaps in expected recoveries across economy groups have widened since the July forecast, for instance between advanced economies and low-income developing countries.", "Inflation has increased markedly in the United States and some emerging market economies.", "As restrictions are relaxed:", "Although price pressures are expected to subside in most countries in 2022, inflation prospects are highly uncertain.", "Employment remains below pre-pandemic levels in many economies, forcing difficult policy trade-offs.", "Recommended multilateral actions:", "National policy guidance:", "Despite recent increases in headline inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored.", "Headline inflation is projected to peak in the final months of 2021 but is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022 for most economies.", "Considerable uncertainty remains; inflation could exceed forecasts for a variety of reasons.", "Policy recommendations to address inflation risks:", "Basic research—undirected, theoretical, or experimental work—is identified as an essential input into innovation.", "New data that draw on connections from individual innovations and scientific articles show:", "Policy implication: supporting basic research can help fight the pandemic and boost long-term growth.", "**Chapter 1**", "**Chapter 1 Annex**", "**Chapter 2**", "**Chapter 2 Annex**", "**Chapter 3**", "**Chapter 3 Annex**", "**Table1 Oct2021weo**", "**WEO Chapter 2 (October 2021) — Dataset overview**", "**WEO Chapter 3 Oct 2021 — Dataset overview**", "**WEO Chapter 1 Oct. 2021 — Dataset overview**", "**IMF World Economic Outlook, recovery during a pandemic, executive summary, October 2021**", "**Foreword**", "**World Economic Outlook, recovery during a pandemic, statistical appendix, October 2021**", "**World Economic Outlook, Recovery during a Pandemic, statistical appendix, table B1-B21, October 2021**", "**World Economic Outlook, Recovery during a Pandemic, statistical appendix, October 2021**", "**Full Report**", "[DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO)", "[Blog by Gita Gopinath](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/12/a-hobbled-recovery-along-entrenched-fault-lines)", "[October 2021 Database](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/October)", "[Press Briefing](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6276772786001)", "[Blog by Gita Gopinath](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/12/a-hobbled-recovery-along-entrenched-fault-lines/)", "[PODCAST](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/All-Podcasts/2021/10/12/gita-gopinath-weo-oct-2021)", "[https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/inflation-scares-in-an-uncharted-recovery](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/inflation-scares-in-an-uncharted-recovery)", "[blog by imf staff](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/inflation-scares-in-an-uncharted-recovery/)", "[Podcast](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/All-Podcasts/2021/10/06/Inflation-WEO)", "[https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/why-basic-science-matters-for-economic-growth/](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/why-basic-science-matters-for-economic-growth/)", "[watch the video](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6275763238001)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Chapter 1", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/ch1.pdf", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/ch1.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 1 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/ch1annex.pdf", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/ch1annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2", "role": 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