## World Economic Outlook, October 2021: Recovery During A Pandemic _World Economic Outlook, October 2021_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [World Economic Outlook, October 2021: Recovery During A Pandemic](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: October 12, 2021 --- ### Global recovery: current state and projections - The global economic recovery is continuing amid a resurging pandemic that poses unique policy challenges and requires strong multilateral effort. - The global economy is projected to grow 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022, 0.1 percentage point lower for 2021 than in the July forecast. - The downward revision for 2021 reflects: - a downgrade for advanced economies—in part due to supply disruptions; and - a downgrade for low-income developing countries, largely due to worsening pandemic dynamics. - Partially offsetting factors include stronger near-term prospects among some commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies. - Rapid spread of Delta and the threat of new variants have increased uncertainty about how quickly the pandemic can be overcome. - Policy choices have become more difficult, with limited room to maneuver. ### Global prospects and policy priorities - Gaps in expected recoveries across economy groups have widened since the July forecast, for instance between advanced economies and low-income developing countries. - Inflation has increased markedly in the United States and some emerging market economies. - As restrictions are relaxed: - demand has accelerated; and - supply has been slower to respond, contributing to price pressures. - Although price pressures are expected to subside in most countries in 2022, inflation prospects are highly uncertain. - Employment remains below pre-pandemic levels in many economies, forcing difficult policy trade-offs. - Recommended multilateral actions: - strong policy effort on vaccine deployment; - action on climate change; and - measures to strengthen international liquidity. - National policy guidance: - policies should be tailored to country-specific conditions and better targeted; and - recognize that policy space constraints become more binding the longer the pandemic lasts. ### Inflation Scares: outlook and policy implications - Despite recent increases in headline inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. - Headline inflation is projected to peak in the final months of 2021 but is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022 for most economies. - Considerable uncertainty remains; inflation could exceed forecasts for a variety of reasons. - Policy recommendations to address inflation risks: - clear communication; and - appropriate monetary and fiscal policies to help prevent “inflation scares” from unhinging inflation expectations. ### Research and innovation: supporting long-term growth - Basic research—undirected, theoretical, or experimental work—is identified as an essential input into innovation. - New data that draw on connections from individual innovations and scientific articles show: - wide-ranging international spillovers from basic research; and - long-lasting economic impacts. - Policy implication: supporting basic research can help fight the pandemic and boost long-term growth. *World Economic Outlook, October 2021: Recovery During a Pandemic* --- ## Content in this bundle - **Chapter 1** - [Chapter 1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 1 Annex** - [Chapter 1 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/ch1annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 2** - [Chapter 2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 2 Annex** - [Chapter 2 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/ch2annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 3** - [Chapter 3 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 3 Annex** - [Chapter 3 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/ch3annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Table1 Oct2021weo** - [Table1 Oct2021weo (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/data/table1-oct2021weo.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **WEO Chapter 2 (October 2021) — Dataset overview** - [WEO Chapter 2 (October 2021) — Dataset overview (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/data/weooctober-2021ch2.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **WEO Chapter 3 Oct 2021 — Dataset overview** - [WEO Chapter 3 Oct 2021 — Dataset overview (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/data/weooctober-2021ch3.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **WEO Chapter 1 Oct. 2021 — Dataset overview** - [WEO Chapter 1 Oct. 2021 — Dataset overview (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/data/weooctober2021-ch1.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **IMF World Economic Outlook, recovery during a pandemic, executive summary, October 2021** - [IMF World Economic Outlook, recovery during a pandemic, executive summary, October 2021 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/executivesummary.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Foreword** - [Foreword (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/foreword.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **World Economic Outlook, recovery during a pandemic, statistical appendix, October 2021** - [World Economic Outlook, recovery during a pandemic, statistical appendix, October 2021 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/statapp-tables-a1-a15.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **World Economic Outlook, Recovery during a Pandemic, statistical appendix, table B1-B21, October 2021** - [World Economic Outlook, Recovery during a Pandemic, statistical appendix, table B1-B21, October 2021 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/statapp-tables-b1-b21.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **World Economic Outlook, Recovery during a Pandemic, statistical appendix, October 2021** - [World Economic Outlook, Recovery during a Pandemic, statistical appendix, October 2021 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/statappintro.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Full Report** - [Full Report (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/october/english/text.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO) - [Blog by Gita Gopinath](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/12/a-hobbled-recovery-along-entrenched-fault-lines) - [October 2021 Database](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/October) - [Press Briefing](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6276772786001) - [Blog by Gita Gopinath](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/12/a-hobbled-recovery-along-entrenched-fault-lines/) - [PODCAST](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/All-Podcasts/2021/10/12/gita-gopinath-weo-oct-2021) - [https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/inflation-scares-in-an-uncharted-recovery](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/inflation-scares-in-an-uncharted-recovery) - [blog by imf staff](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/inflation-scares-in-an-uncharted-recovery/) - [Podcast](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/All-Podcasts/2021/10/06/Inflation-WEO) - [https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/why-basic-science-matters-for-economic-growth/](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/why-basic-science-matters-for-economic-growth/) - [watch the video](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6275763238001) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021_