{ "title": "World Economic Outlook, April 2022: War Sets Back The Global Recovery", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, April 2022", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022/index.md", "summary": "The war in Ukraine has triggered a costly humanitarian crisis that demands a peaceful resolution. At the same time, economic damage from the conflict will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and add to inflation.", "publishDate": "2022-04-19", "sections": [ { "heading": "War slows recovery", "content": "- The war in Ukraine has triggered a costly humanitarian crisis that demands a peaceful resolution.\n- Economic damage from the conflict will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and add to inflation.\n- Fuel and food prices have increased rapidly, hitting vulnerable populations in low-income countries hardest.\n- Global growth projections:\n - Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023.\n - This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023 than projected in January.\n - Beyond 2023, global growth is forecast to decline to about 3.3 percent over the medium term.\n- Inflation projections and changes:\n - 2022 inflation projections of 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging market and developing economies—1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than projected last January.\n- Required actions:\n - Multilateral efforts to respond to the humanitarian crisis, prevent further economic fragmentation, maintain global liquidity, manage debt distress, tackle climate change, and end the pandemic are essential." }, { "heading": "Global prospects and policies", "content": "- The war in Ukraine is expected to be a major factor in the significant slowdown of global growth in 2022.\n- Country-specific impacts:\n - A severe double-digit drop in GDP is expected in Ukraine due to fighting.\n - A deep contraction is projected for Russia due to sanctions and European countries’ decisions to scale back energy imports.\n- Transmission channels of economic costs:\n - Commodity markets, trade, and—to a lesser extent—financial interlinkages.\n- Distributional effects:\n - Fuel and food price rises are already having a global impact, with vulnerable populations—particularly in low-income countries—most affected." }, { "heading": "Private sector debt and the global recovery", "content": "- Context:\n - Soon after the pandemic hit, exceptional measures were deployed to maintain private access to credit, staving off a deeper recession in 2020.\n - These policies led to a surge in consumer and business indebtedness.\n- Main findings:\n - Aggregate private debt figures do not tell the whole story.\n - The recovery could be weaker in some countries due to a variety of factors.\n - Future monetary and fiscal tightening often have a larger effect on the most vulnerable.\n- Policy implication:\n - Careful attention will be needed when unwinding pandemic-era policy support." }, { "heading": "A greener labor market: employment, policies, and economic transformation", "content": "- Findings from a sample of largely advanced economies:\n - Both greener and more polluting jobs are concentrated among small subsets of workers.\n - Individual workers face tough challenges in moving to greener jobs from more pollution-intensive jobs.\n - Stronger environmental policies help green the labor market and appear more effective when reallocation incentives are not blunted.\n- Policy simulation result:\n - Model simulations suggest that a policy package incorporating a green infrastructure push, carbon prices, an earned income tax credit, and training, could put an economy on a path to net zero emissions by 2050 with an inclusive transition." }, { "heading": "Global trade and value chains in the pandemic", "content": "- Observations:\n - When COVID-19 hit, the combined supply and demand shock was expected to lead to a dramatic collapse in trade.\n - Trade in goods bounced back quite rapidly, although trade in services still remains sluggish.\n- Resilience and risks:\n - Disruptions in key international networks of production and trade prompted calls to relocate production domestically.\n - Pandemic-specific factors had a key role in the rotation of demand from services to goods.\n - Significant negative spillover effects of pandemic containment policies on trade partners were short-lived, and trade and value chains proved resilient overall.\n- Policy recommendations:\n - To guard against future shocks, international production and trade networks can be strengthened by increasing diversification, and enhancing substitutability, in input sourcing.\n\nSource: World Economic Outlook, April 2022: War Sets Back The Global Recovery\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Chapter 1 Annex\n - Chapter 1 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2\n - Chapter 2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2 Annex\n - Chapter 2 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3\n - Chapter 3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3 Annex\n - Chapter 3 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- CHAPTER 4 GLOBaL TRaDE aND vaLUE ChaINS DURING ThE PaNDEMIC\n - CHAPTER 4 GLOBaL TRaDE aND vaLUE ChaINS DURING ThE PaNDEMIC (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - CHAPTER 4 GLOBaL TRaDE aND vaLUE ChaINS DURING ThE PaNDEMIC (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 4 Annex\n - Chapter 4 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2022\n - WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2022 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2022 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- April 2022 WEO Chapter 1\n - April 2022 WEO Chapter 1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - April 2022 WEO Chapter 1 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- WEO Chapter 2 Apr 2022\n - WEO Chapter 2 Apr 2022 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - WEO Chapter 2 Apr 2022 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Executive Summary\n - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Foreword\n - Foreword (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Foreword (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, April 2022\n - War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, April 2022 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, April 2022 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table B, April 2022\n - War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table B, April 2022 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table B, April 2022 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table A, April 2022\n - War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table A, April 2022 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table A, April 2022 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Full Report\n - Full Report (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Full Report (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Download Data\n- DataMapper\n- Blog by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas\n- Press Briefing\n- Chart of the Week: Inflation\n- Blog by IMF STAFF\n- blog by imf staff\n- watch the video\n- blog by imf staff\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: April 19, 2022", "The war in Ukraine has triggered a costly humanitarian crisis that demands a peaceful resolution.", "Economic damage from the conflict will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and add to inflation.", "Fuel and food prices have increased rapidly, hitting vulnerable populations in low-income countries hardest.", "Global growth projections:", "Inflation projections and changes:", "Required actions:", "The war in Ukraine is expected to be a major factor in the significant slowdown of global growth in 2022.", "Country-specific impacts:", "Transmission channels of economic costs:", "Distributional effects:", "Context:", "Main findings:", "Policy implication:", "Findings from a sample of largely advanced economies:", "Policy simulation result:", "Observations:", "Resilience and risks:", "Policy recommendations:", "**Chapter 1 Annex**", "**Chapter 2**", "**Chapter 2 Annex**", "**Chapter 3**", "**Chapter 3 Annex**", "**CHAPTER 4 GLOBaL TRaDE aND vaLUE ChaINS DURING ThE PaNDEMIC**", "**Chapter 4 Annex**", "**WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2022**", "**April 2022 WEO Chapter 1**", "**WEO Chapter 2 Apr 2022**", "**Executive Summary**", "**Foreword**", "**War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, April 2022**", "**War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table B, April 2022**", "**War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table A, April 2022**", "**Full Report**", "[Download Data](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/April)", "[DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO)", "[Blog by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/19/war-dims-global-economic-outlook-as-inflation-accelerates/)", "[Press Briefing](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6304419022001)", "[Chart of the Week: Inflation](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/27/inflation-to-be-elevated-for-longer-on-war-demand-job-markets/)", "[Blog by IMF STAFF](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/18/private-debt-to-weigh-on-global-economic-recovery/)", "[blog by imf staff](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/13/the-right-labor-market-policies-can-ease-the-green-jobs-transition/)", "[watch the video](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6303629303001)", "[blog by imf staff](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/12/global-trade-needs-more-supply-diversity-not-less/)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Chapter 1 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch1annex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch1annex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch1annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch2.pdf", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch2.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch2annex.pdf", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch2annex.pdf", "mime": 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