## World Economic Outlook, April 2022: War Sets Back The Global Recovery _World Economic Outlook, April 2022_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [World Economic Outlook, April 2022: War Sets Back The Global Recovery](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: April 19, 2022 --- ### War slows recovery - The war in Ukraine has triggered a costly humanitarian crisis that demands a peaceful resolution. - Economic damage from the conflict will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and add to inflation. - Fuel and food prices have increased rapidly, hitting vulnerable populations in low-income countries hardest. - Global growth projections: - Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023. - This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023 than projected in January. - Beyond 2023, global growth is forecast to decline to about 3.3 percent over the medium term. - Inflation projections and changes: - 2022 inflation projections of 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging market and developing economies—1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than projected last January. - Required actions: - Multilateral efforts to respond to the humanitarian crisis, prevent further economic fragmentation, maintain global liquidity, manage debt distress, tackle climate change, and end the pandemic are essential. ### Global prospects and policies - The war in Ukraine is expected to be a major factor in the significant slowdown of global growth in 2022. - Country-specific impacts: - A severe double-digit drop in GDP is expected in Ukraine due to fighting. - A deep contraction is projected for Russia due to sanctions and European countries’ decisions to scale back energy imports. - Transmission channels of economic costs: - Commodity markets, trade, and—to a lesser extent—financial interlinkages. - Distributional effects: - Fuel and food price rises are already having a global impact, with vulnerable populations—particularly in low-income countries—most affected. ### Private sector debt and the global recovery - Context: - Soon after the pandemic hit, exceptional measures were deployed to maintain private access to credit, staving off a deeper recession in 2020. - These policies led to a surge in consumer and business indebtedness. - Main findings: - Aggregate private debt figures do not tell the whole story. - The recovery could be weaker in some countries due to a variety of factors. - Future monetary and fiscal tightening often have a larger effect on the most vulnerable. - Policy implication: - Careful attention will be needed when unwinding pandemic-era policy support. ### A greener labor market: employment, policies, and economic transformation - Findings from a sample of largely advanced economies: - Both greener and more polluting jobs are concentrated among small subsets of workers. - Individual workers face tough challenges in moving to greener jobs from more pollution-intensive jobs. - Stronger environmental policies help green the labor market and appear more effective when reallocation incentives are not blunted. - Policy simulation result: - Model simulations suggest that a policy package incorporating a green infrastructure push, carbon prices, an earned income tax credit, and training, could put an economy on a path to net zero emissions by 2050 with an inclusive transition. ### Global trade and value chains in the pandemic - Observations: - When COVID-19 hit, the combined supply and demand shock was expected to lead to a dramatic collapse in trade. - Trade in goods bounced back quite rapidly, although trade in services still remains sluggish. - Resilience and risks: - Disruptions in key international networks of production and trade prompted calls to relocate production domestically. - Pandemic-specific factors had a key role in the rotation of demand from services to goods. - Significant negative spillover effects of pandemic containment policies on trade partners were short-lived, and trade and value chains proved resilient overall. - Policy recommendations: - To guard against future shocks, international production and trade networks can be strengthened by increasing diversification, and enhancing substitutability, in input sourcing. *Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2022: War Sets Back The Global Recovery* --- ## Content in this bundle - **Chapter 1 Annex** - [Chapter 1 Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch1annex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 1 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch1annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 2** - [Chapter 2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 2 Annex** - [Chapter 2 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch2annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 3** - [Chapter 3 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 3 Annex** - [Chapter 3 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch3annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **CHAPTER 4 GLOBaL TRaDE aND vaLUE ChaINS DURING ThE PaNDEMIC** - [CHAPTER 4 GLOBaL TRaDE aND vaLUE ChaINS DURING ThE PaNDEMIC (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch4.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [CHAPTER 4 GLOBaL TRaDE aND vaLUE ChaINS DURING ThE PaNDEMIC (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch4.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 4 Annex** - [Chapter 4 Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/ch4annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2022** - [WEO Chapter 4 Apr. 2022 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/data/weoapr2022-ch4.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **April 2022 WEO Chapter 1** - [April 2022 WEO Chapter 1 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/data/weoapril2022-ch1.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **WEO Chapter 2 Apr 2022** - [WEO Chapter 2 Apr 2022 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/data/weoapril2022-ch2.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **Executive Summary** - [Executive Summary (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/execsum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Executive Summary (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/execsum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Foreword** - [Foreword (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/foreword.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Foreword (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/foreword.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, April 2022** - [War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, April 2022 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/statapp-intro.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, April 2022 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/statapp-intro.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table B, April 2022** - [War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table B, April 2022 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/statapp-table-b.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table B, April 2022 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/statapp-table-b.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table A, April 2022** - [War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table A, April 2022 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/statapp-tables-a.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Statistical Appendix, Table A, April 2022 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/statapp-tables-a.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Full Report** - [Full Report (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/text.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Full Report (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/text.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [Download Data](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/April) - [DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO) - [Blog by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/19/war-dims-global-economic-outlook-as-inflation-accelerates/) - [Press Briefing](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6304419022001) - [Chart of the Week: Inflation](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/27/inflation-to-be-elevated-for-longer-on-war-demand-job-markets/) - [Blog by IMF STAFF](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/18/private-debt-to-weigh-on-global-economic-recovery/) - [blog by imf staff](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/13/the-right-labor-market-policies-can-ease-the-green-jobs-transition/) - [watch the video](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6303629303001) - [blog by imf staff](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/12/global-trade-needs-more-supply-diversity-not-less/) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022_