{ "title": "World Economic Outlook, October 2022: Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, October 2022", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022/index.md", "summary": "Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Inflation and uncertainty", "content": "- Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades.\n- Key drivers weighing on the outlook: the cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic.\n- Growth projections:\n - Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023.\n - This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.\n- Inflation projections:\n - Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022.\n - Inflation is forecast to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024.\n- Policy guidance:\n - Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability.\n - Fiscal policy should aim to alleviate cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy.\n - Structural reforms can support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints.\n - Multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation." }, { "heading": "Global prospects and policies", "content": "- The slowdown in global economic activity is broad-based and sharper-than-expected, with inflation higher than seen in decades.\n- The economic outlook depends on:\n - Successful calibration of monetary and fiscal policies.\n - The course of the war in Ukraine.\n - Growth prospects in China.\n- Risks identified as unusually large:\n - Monetary policy could miscalculate the right stance to reduce inflation.\n - Diverging policy paths in the largest economies could exacerbate the US dollar’s appreciation.\n - Tightening global financing could trigger emerging market debt distress.\n - A worsening of China’s property sector crisis could undermine growth.\n- Policy priorities for policymakers:\n - Focus on restoring price stability.\n - Alleviate cost-of-living pressures.\n - Pursue multilateral cooperation to fast-track the green energy transition and prevent fragmentation." }, { "heading": "Wage Dynamics Post–COVID-19 and wage-price spiral risks", "content": "- Context: Inflation has reached a 40-year high in some economies.\n- Observations:\n - Although wage growth has generally stayed below inflation so far, some observers warn of potential wage-price spirals where prices and wages feed off each other.\n- Analytical findings:\n - Similar historical episodes were not followed by wage-price spirals on average.\n - Analysis highlights that more backward-looking expectations require stronger and more frontloaded monetary tightening to reduce risks of inflation de-anchoring.\n - Risks of a sustained wage-price spiral appear limited since underlying inflation shocks come from outside the labor market and monetary policy is tightening aggressively." }, { "heading": "Near-term macroeconomic impact of decarbonization policies", "content": "- Framing:\n - Decades of procrastination have transformed what could have been a smooth transition into a more challenging one.\n - By the end of the decade, the global economy needs to emit 25 percent less greenhouse gases than in 2022 to have a fighting chance to reach the goals set in Paris in 2015 and avert catastrophic climate disruptions.\n- Approach:\n - The chapter uses a new model developed at the IMF (GMMET) to analyze the near-term macroeconomic impact of feasible decarbonization policies and potential challenges for monetary policy.\n\nWorld Economic Outlook Report, October 2022: Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Chapter 1 Annex\n - Chapter 1 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2\n - Chapter 2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2 Annex\n - Chapter 2 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3\n - Chapter 3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3 Annex\n - Chapter 3 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 3 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- WEO Chapter 2 Oct 2022\n - WEO Chapter 2 Oct 2022 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - WEO Chapter 2 Oct 2022 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Dataset overview: WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2022\n - Dataset overview: WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2022 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Dataset overview: WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2022 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- October 2022 WEO Chapter 1 — Dataset overview\n - October 2022 WEO Chapter 1 — Dataset overview (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - October 2022 WEO Chapter 1 — Dataset overview (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Executive Summary\n - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Foreword\n - Foreword (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Foreword (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Statistical Appendix\n - Statistical Appendix (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Statistical Appendix (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table a\n - Table a (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Table a (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table b\n - Table b (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Table b (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Annex Table 1.1.1.\n - Annex Table 1.1.1. (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Annex Table 1.1.1. (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Download Data\n- DataMapper\n- Blog by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas\n- October 2022 Database\n- Blog by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas\n- blog by imf staff\n- blog by imf staff\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: October 11, 2022", "Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades.", "Key drivers weighing on the outlook: the cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic.", "Growth projections:", "Inflation projections:", "Policy guidance:", "The slowdown in global economic activity is broad-based and sharper-than-expected, with inflation higher than seen in decades.", "The economic outlook depends on:", "Risks identified as unusually large:", "Policy priorities for policymakers:", "Context: Inflation has reached a 40-year high in some economies.", "Observations:", "Analytical findings:", "Framing:", "Approach:", "**Chapter 1 Annex**", "**Chapter 2**", "**Chapter 2 Annex**", "**Chapter 3**", "**Chapter 3 Annex**", "**WEO Chapter 2 Oct 2022**", "**Dataset overview: WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2022**", "**October 2022 WEO Chapter 1 — Dataset overview**", "**Executive Summary**", "**Foreword**", "**Statistical Appendix**", "**Table a**", "**Table b**", "**Annex Table 1.1.1.**", "[Download Data](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/October)", "[DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO)", "[Blog by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/11/policymakers-need-steady-hand-as-storm-clouds-gather-over-global-economy)", "[October 2022 Database](https://imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/October)", "[Blog by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2022/10/11/policymakers-need-steady-hand-as-storm-clouds-gather-over-global-economy)", "[blog by imf staff](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/05/wage-price-spiral-risks-appear-contained-despite-high-inflation)", "[blog by imf staff](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/05/further-delaying-climate-policies-will-hurt-economic-growth)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Chapter 1 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch1annex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch1annex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch1annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch2.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch2.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch2.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch2annex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch2annex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch2annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 3", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch3.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch3.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch3.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 3 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch3annex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch3annex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/ch3annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "WEO Chapter 2 Oct 2022", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/data/weooct2022-ch2.xlsx", "binary": { "path": 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"https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/execsum.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/execsum.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/execsum.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Foreword", "role": "foreword", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/foreword.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/foreword.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/foreword.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Statistical Appendix", "role": "appendix", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/statsappendix.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/october/english/statsappendix.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, 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