{ "title": "World Economic Outlook, April 2023: A Rocky Recovery", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, April 2023", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023/index.md", "summary": "The baseline forecast is for growth to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before settling at 3.0 percent in 2024. Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Global outlook and baseline projections", "content": "- Baseline forecast: global growth falls from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before settling at 3.0 percent in 2024.\n- Advanced economies: growth slowdown from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023.\n- Global headline inflation in the baseline: falls from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023, driven by lower commodity prices.\n- Underlying (core) inflation: likely to decline more slowly than headline inflation.\n- Inflation’s return to target: \"unlikely before 2025 in most cases.\"\n- Outlook characterization: \"uncertain again amid financial sector turmoil, high inflation, ongoing effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and three years of COVID.\"" }, { "heading": "Alternative scenario and downside risks", "content": "- Plausible alternative scenario with further financial sector stress:\n - Global growth declines to about 2.5 percent in 2023.\n - Advanced economy growth falls below 1 percent.\n- Risks to the outlook: \"heavily skewed to the downside, with the chances of a hard landing having risen sharply.\"\n- Financial sector developments: \"banking sector vulnerabilities have come into focus and fears of contagion have risen across the broader financial sector, including nonbank financial institutions.\"" }, { "heading": "Major thematic chapters and their key findings", "content": "- Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies\n - Tentative signs of a soft landing in early 2023 receded amid stubbornly high inflation and recent financial sector turmoil.\n - Inflation has declined as central banks raised interest rates and food and energy prices fell, but underlying price pressures remain sticky with tight labor markets in a number of economies.\n - Side effects from the fast rise in policy rates are becoming apparent through banking sector vulnerabilities.\n- Chapter 2: The Natural Rate of Interest: Drivers and Implications for Policy\n - The natural rate of interest is \"the real interest rate that neither stimulates nor contracts the economy\" and is a reference for monetary policy stance and public debt sustainability.\n - Chapter 2 studies the evolution of the natural rate across several large advanced and emerging market economies using complementary approaches to mitigate estimation uncertainty.\n - Overall analysis suggests that once the current inflationary episode has passed, interest rates are likely to revert toward pre-pandemic levels in advanced economies.\n - Future convergence to pre-pandemic levels depends on whether scenarios with persistently higher government debt and deficit or financial fragmentation materialize.\n- Chapter 3: Coming Down to Earth: How to Tackle Soaring Public Debt\n - Public debt as a ratio to GDP \"soared across the world during COVID-19 and is expected to remain elevated,\" posing a growing challenge as real interest rates rise.\n - Three main conclusions:\n - Adequately timed and appropriately designed fiscal consolidations have a high probability of durably reducing debt ratios.\n - When a country is in debt distress, a comprehensive approach combining significant debt restructuring, fiscal consolidation, and policies to support economic growth can have a significant and long-lasting impact on reducing debt ratios; coordination among creditors is essential.\n - Economic growth and inflation have historically contributed to reducing debt ratios.\n- Chapter 4: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Foreign Direct Investment\n - Supply-chain disruptions and rising geopolitical tensions center the policy debate on the risks, benefits, and costs of geoeconomic fragmentation.\n - FDI flows are increasingly concentrated among geopolitically aligned countries, particularly in strategic sectors.\n - Several emerging market and developing economies are highly vulnerable to FDI relocation due to reliance on FDI from geopolitically distant countries.\n - Long-term impact: FDI fragmentation from the emergence of geopolitical blocs can generate large output losses, especially for emerging market and developing economies.\n - Policy implication: \"Multilateral efforts to preserve global integration are the best way to reduce the large and widespread economic costs of FDI fragmentation.\"" }, { "heading": "Policy implications and priorities", "content": "- Monetary policy:\n - Use the natural rate of interest as a reference to gauge policy stance.\n - Recognize that interest rates are likely to revert toward pre-pandemic levels once the inflationary episode passes, conditional on fiscal and financial scenarios.\n- Fiscal policy and debt management:\n - Pursue adequately timed and appropriately designed fiscal consolidations to durably reduce debt ratios.\n - In debt distress, combine debt restructuring, fiscal consolidation, and growth-supportive policies with creditor coordination.\n- Multilateral and geopolitical policy:\n - Prioritize multilateral efforts to preserve global integration to mitigate large output losses from FDI fragmentation.\n- Financial stability:\n - Monitor banking sector vulnerabilities and contagion risks across nonbank financial institutions amid rapid policy rate hikes.\n\nSource: World Economic Outlook, April 2023: A Rocky Recovery\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- weoapr2023-ch2\n - weoapr2023-ch2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - weoapr2023-ch2 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- WEO Chapter 3 Apr 2023\n - WEO Chapter 3 Apr 2023 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - WEO Chapter 3 Apr 2023 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- dataset overview\n - dataset overview (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - dataset overview (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Chapter 1\n - Chapter 1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 1 Annex\n - Chapter 1 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2\n - Chapter 2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2 Annex\n - Chapter 2 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- CHAPTER 3 COMINg DOWN TO EARTh: hOW TO T ACKLE SOARINg PUbLIC DEbT\n - CHAPTER 3 COMINg DOWN TO EARTh: hOW TO T ACKLE SOARINg PUbLIC DEbT (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - CHAPTER 3 COMINg DOWN TO EARTh: hOW TO T ACKLE SOARINg PUbLIC DEbT (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3 Annex\n - Chapter 3 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 3 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 4\n - Chapter 4 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 4 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 4 Annex\n - Chapter 4 Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 4 Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Executive Summary\n - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Foreword\n - Foreword (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Foreword (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Statistical Appendix\n - Statistical Appendix (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Statistical Appendix (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table a1\n - Table a1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Table a1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table b1\n - Table b1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Table b1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Full Report\n - Full Report (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Full Report (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- World Economic Outlook: A rocky recovery; Chapter 1: Global prospects and policies; April 2023, IMF\n - World Economic Outlook: A rocky recovery; Chapter 1: Global prospects and policies; April 2023, IMF (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - World Economic Outlook: A rocky recovery; Chapter 1: Global prospects and policies; April 2023, IMF (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- DataMapper\n- Blog by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas\n- April 2023 Database\n- Press Conference\n- Trancript\n- Chart of the Week\n- chapter 1 data\n- https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/04/10/interest-rates-likely-to-return-towards-pre-pandemic-levels-when-inflation-is-tamed\n- https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/04/10/how-to-tackle-soaring-public-debt\n- https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/04/05/fragmenting-foreign-direct-investment-hits-emerging-economies-hardest\n- Watch Event Replay\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: April 11, 2023", "Baseline forecast: global growth falls from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before settling at 3.0 percent in 2024.", "Advanced economies: growth slowdown from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023.", "Global headline inflation in the baseline: falls from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023, driven by lower commodity prices.", "Underlying (core) inflation: likely to decline more slowly than headline inflation.", "Inflation’s return to target: \"unlikely before 2025 in most cases.\"", "Outlook characterization: \"uncertain again amid financial sector turmoil, high inflation, ongoing effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and three years of COVID.\"", "Plausible alternative scenario with further financial sector stress:", "Risks to the outlook: \"heavily skewed to the downside, with the chances of a hard landing having risen sharply.\"", "Financial sector developments: \"banking sector vulnerabilities have come into focus and fears of contagion have risen across the broader financial sector, including nonbank financial institutions.\"", "Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies", "Chapter 2: The Natural Rate of Interest: Drivers and Implications for Policy", "Chapter 3: Coming Down to Earth: How to Tackle Soaring Public Debt", "Chapter 4: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Foreign Direct Investment", "Monetary policy:", "Fiscal policy and debt management:", "Multilateral and geopolitical policy:", "Financial stability:", "**weoapr2023-ch2**", "**WEO Chapter 3 Apr 2023**", "**dataset overview**", "**Chapter 1**", "**Chapter 1 Annex**", "**Chapter 2**", "**Chapter 2 Annex**", "**CHAPTER 3 COMINg DOWN TO EARTh: hOW TO T ACKLE SOARINg PUbLIC DEbT**", "**Chapter 3 Annex**", "**Chapter 4**", "**Chapter 4 Annex**", "**Executive Summary**", "**Foreword**", "**Statistical Appendix**", "**Table a1**", "**Table b1**", "**Full Report**", "**World Economic Outlook: A rocky recovery; Chapter 1: Global prospects and policies; April 2023, IMF**", "[DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO)", "[Blog by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/04/11/global-economic-recovery-endures-but-the-road-is-getting-rocky)", "[April 2023 Database](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/weo-database/2023/april)", "[Press Conference](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6324483852112)", "[Trancript](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/04/12/tr41123-weo-press-briefing-transcript)", "[Chart of the Week](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/19/world-economic-outlook-shows-economies-facing-high-uncertainty)", "[chapter 1 data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/data/weoapril2023-ch1.zip)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/04/10/interest-rates-likely-to-return-towards-pre-pandemic-levels-when-inflation-is-tamed](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/04/10/interest-rates-likely-to-return-towards-pre-pandemic-levels-when-inflation-is-tamed)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/04/10/how-to-tackle-soaring-public-debt](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/04/10/how-to-tackle-soaring-public-debt)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/04/05/fragmenting-foreign-direct-investment-hits-emerging-economies-hardest](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/04/05/fragmenting-foreign-direct-investment-hits-emerging-economies-hardest)", "[Watch Event Replay](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6324142584112)" ], "related": [ { "title": "weoapr2023-ch2", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/data/weoapr2023-ch2.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/data/weoapr2023-ch2.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "WEO Chapter 3 Apr 2023", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/data/weoapr2023-ch3.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/data/weoapr2023-ch3.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "dataset overview", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/data/weoapr2023-ch4.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/data/weoapr2023-ch4.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "Chapter 1", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch1.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch1.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch1.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 1 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch1annex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch1annex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch1annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch2.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch2.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch2.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch2annex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch2annex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch2annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "CHAPTER 3 COMINg DOWN TO EARTh: hOW TO T ACKLE SOARINg PUbLIC DEbT", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch3.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch3.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch3.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 3 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch3annex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch3annex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch3annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 4", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch4.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch4.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch4.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 4 Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch4annex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch4annex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/ch4annex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Executive Summary", "role": "executive-summary", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/execsum.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/execsum.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/execsum.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Foreword", "role": "foreword", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/foreword.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/foreword.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/foreword.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Statistical Appendix", "role": "appendix", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/statsappendix.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/statsappendix.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/statsappendix.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Table a1", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/tablea1.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/tablea1.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/tablea1.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Table b1", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/tableb1.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/tableb1.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/tableb1.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Full Report", "role": "full-report", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/text.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/text.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/april/english/text.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "World Economic Outlook: A rocky recovery; Chapter 1: Global prospects and policies; April 2023, IMF", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/research/commodityprices/weospecialfeature/csfapril2023.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/research/commodityprices/weospecialfeature/csfapril2023.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/research/commodityprices/weospecialfeature/csfapril2023.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023/index.md", "json": 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