{ "title": "World Economic Outlook, April 2024: Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, April 2024", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024/index.md", "summary": "The latest World Economic Outlook reports economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. Risks to the global outlook are now broadly balanced compared with last year.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Global outlook and key statistics", "content": "- Baseline forecast: world economy to grow at 3.2 percent during 2024 and 2025, the same pace as in 2023.\n- Advanced economies growth: rise from 1.6 percent in 2023 to 1.7 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025.\n- Emerging market and developing economies growth: slowdown from 4.3 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025.\n- Global growth five years from now: forecast at 3.1 percent (noted as the lowest in decades).\n- Global inflation: decline from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025.\n- Advanced economies expected to return to inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.\n- Core inflation: generally projected to decline more gradually." }, { "heading": "Inflation, monetary policy, and resilience", "content": "- Economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23 despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability.\n- With inflationary pressures abating more swiftly than expected in many countries, risks to the global outlook are described as broadly balanced compared with last year.\n- Monetary policy guidance: ensure that inflation \"touches down smoothly.\"" }, { "heading": "Chapter 2 — Housing markets and transmission of monetary policy", "content": "- Monetary policy effects through mortgage and housing markets are stronger where:\n - fixed-rate mortgages are not common;\n - home buyers are more leveraged;\n - household debt is high;\n - housing supply is restricted;\n - house prices are overvalued.\n- These characteristics vary significantly across countries, explaining why monetary policy is strong in some countries and weak in others.\n- Recent shifts in mortgage and housing markets may have limited the drag of higher policy rates up to now in several countries.\n- Policy risk note: the risk that households may still \"feel the pinch\" should be taken seriously where fixed-rate mortgages have short fixation periods, especially if households are heavily indebted." }, { "heading": "Chapter 3 — Medium-term growth slowdown and drivers", "content": "- Key finding: significant and widespread slowdown in total factor productivity is a major driver of the growth decline.\n- Contributing factors:\n - increased misallocation of capital and labor between firms within sectors;\n - demographic pressures;\n - slowdown in private capital formation.\n- Projection: absent policy action or technological advances, medium-term growth is projected to fall well below prepandemic levels.\n- Measures to bolster growth recommended:\n - improve resource allocation to productive firms;\n - boost labor force participation;\n - leverage artificial intelligence for productivity gains.\n- Additional constraints cited: high public debt and geoeconomic fragmentation may impose further limits on future growth." }, { "heading": "Chapter 4 — Spillovers from G20 emerging markets", "content": "- G20 emerging markets account for almost one-third of world GDP and about one-quarter of global trade.\n- Since 2000, spillovers from shocks in G20 emerging markets—particularly China—have increased and are now comparable in size to those from shocks in advanced economies.\n- Trade, notably through global value chains, is highlighted as a key propagation channel.\n- Spillovers generate a reallocation of economic activity across firms and sectors in other countries.\n- Scenario: a plausible growth acceleration in G20 emerging markets, even excluding China, could support global growth over the medium term and spill over to other countries.\n- Policy guidance for recipient economies: maintain sufficient buffers and strengthen policy frameworks to manage the possibility of larger shocks from G20 emerging markets." }, { "heading": "Cross-cutting policy recommendations and priorities", "content": "- Renewed focus on fiscal consolidation to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and priority investments, and to ensure debt sustainability.\n- Intensify supply-enhancing reforms to increase growth toward the higher prepandemic era average and accelerate income convergence.\n- Multilateral cooperation is needed to:\n - limit the costs and risks of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change;\n - speed the transition to green energy;\n - facilitate debt restructuring.\n\nWorld Economic Outlook, April 2024: Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Chapter 1\n - Chapter 1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 1 Online Annex\n - Chapter 1 Online Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 Online Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2\n - Chapter 2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2 Online Annex\n - Chapter 2 Online Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 Online Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- CHAPTER 3 SLOWDOWN IN gLObaL MEDIUM-TERM gROWTH: WHaT WILL IT TaKE TO TURN THE TIDE?\n - CHAPTER 3 SLOWDOWN IN gLObaL MEDIUM-TERM gROWTH: WHaT WILL IT TaKE TO TURN THE TIDE? (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - CHAPTER 3 SLOWDOWN IN gLObaL MEDIUM-TERM gROWTH: WHaT WILL IT TaKE TO TURN THE TIDE? (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3 Online Annex\n - Chapter 3 Online Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 3 Online Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- ch4: TRaDINg PLaCES: REaL SPILLOvERS FROM g20 EMERgINg MaRKETS\n - ch4: TRaDINg PLaCES: REaL SPILLOvERS FROM g20 EMERgINg MaRKETS (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - ch4: TRaDINg PLaCES: REaL SPILLOvERS FROM g20 EMERgINg MaRKETS (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 4 Online Annex\n - Chapter 4 Online Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 4 Online Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Commodity Special Feature\n - Commodity Special Feature (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Commodity Special Feature (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Executive Summary\n - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Foreword\n - Foreword (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Foreword (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Statistical Appendix\n - Statistical Appendix (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Statistical Appendix (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table a\n - Table a (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Table a (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table b\n - Table b (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Table b (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Full Report\n - Full Report (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Full Report (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Previous Issues\n- DataMapper\n- Press Conference\n- April 2024 Database\n- Blog by IMF's Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas\n- Chapter 1 Data\n- Chapter 2 Data\n- blog by imf staff\n- Chapter 3 Data\n- Panel Discussion\n- blog by imf staff\n- Chapter 4 Data\n- Panel Discussion\n- Blog by IMF Staff\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: April 16, 2024", "Baseline forecast: world economy to grow at 3.2 percent during 2024 and 2025, the same pace as in 2023.", "Advanced economies growth: rise from 1.6 percent in 2023 to 1.7 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025.", "Emerging market and developing economies growth: slowdown from 4.3 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025.", "Global growth five years from now: forecast at 3.1 percent (noted as the lowest in decades).", "Global inflation: decline from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025.", "Advanced economies expected to return to inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.", "Core inflation: generally projected to decline more gradually.", "Economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23 despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability.", "With inflationary pressures abating more swiftly than expected in many countries, risks to the global outlook are described as broadly balanced compared with last year.", "Monetary policy guidance: ensure that inflation \"touches down smoothly.\"", "Monetary policy effects through mortgage and housing markets are stronger where:", "These characteristics vary significantly across countries, explaining why monetary policy is strong in some countries and weak in others.", "Recent shifts in mortgage and housing markets may have limited the drag of higher policy rates up to now in several countries.", "Policy risk note: the risk that households may still \"feel the pinch\" should be taken seriously where fixed-rate mortgages have short fixation periods, especially if households are heavily indebted.", "Key finding: significant and widespread slowdown in total factor productivity is a major driver of the growth decline.", "Contributing factors:", "Projection: absent policy action or technological advances, medium-term growth is projected to fall well below prepandemic levels.", "Measures to bolster growth recommended:", "Additional constraints cited: high public debt and geoeconomic fragmentation may impose further limits on future growth.", "G20 emerging markets account for almost one-third of world GDP and about one-quarter of global trade.", "Since 2000, spillovers from shocks in G20 emerging markets—particularly China—have increased and are now comparable in size to those from shocks in advanced economies.", "Trade, notably through global value chains, is highlighted as a key propagation channel.", "Spillovers generate a reallocation of economic activity across firms and sectors in other countries.", "Scenario: a plausible growth acceleration in G20 emerging markets, even excluding China, could support global growth over the medium term and spill over to other countries.", "Policy guidance for recipient economies: maintain sufficient buffers and strengthen policy frameworks to manage the possibility of larger shocks from G20 emerging markets.", "Renewed focus on fiscal consolidation to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and priority investments, and to ensure debt sustainability.", "Intensify supply-enhancing reforms to increase growth toward the higher prepandemic era average and accelerate income convergence.", "Multilateral cooperation is needed to:", "**Chapter 1**", "**Chapter 1 Online Annex**", "**Chapter 2**", "**Chapter 2 Online Annex**", "**CHAPTER 3 SLOWDOWN IN gLObaL MEDIUM-TERM gROWTH: WHaT WILL IT TaKE TO TURN THE TIDE?**", "**Chapter 3 Online Annex**", "**ch4: TRaDINg PLaCES: REaL SPILLOvERS FROM g20 EMERgINg MaRKETS**", "**Chapter 4 Online Annex**", "**Commodity Special Feature**", "**Executive Summary**", "**Foreword**", "**Statistical Appendix**", "**Table a**", "**Table b**", "**Full Report**", "[Previous Issues](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO)", "[DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO)", "[Press Conference](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6351037300112)", "[April 2024 Database](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/weo-database/2024/april)", "[Blog by IMF's Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/16/global-economy-remains-resilient-despite-uneven-growth-challenges-ahead)", "[Chapter 1 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/data/ch1data.zip)", "[Chapter 2 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/data/ch2data.zip)", "[blog by imf staff](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/08/housing-is-one-reason-not-all-countries-feel-same-pinch-of-higher-interest-rates)", "[Chapter 3 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/data/ch3data.zip)", "[Panel Discussion](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6350628109112)", "[blog by imf staff](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/10/world-must-prioritize-productivity-reforms-to-revive-medium-term-growth)", "[Chapter 4 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/data/ch4data.zip)", "[Panel Discussion](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6350578386112)", "[Blog by IMF Staff](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/09/emerging-markets-are-exercising-greater-global-sway)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Chapter 1", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch1.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch1.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch1.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 1 Online Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch2.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch2.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch2.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2 Online Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "CHAPTER 3 SLOWDOWN IN gLObaL MEDIUM-TERM gROWTH: WHaT WILL IT TaKE TO TURN THE TIDE?", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch3.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch3.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch3.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 3 Online Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "ch4: TRaDINg PLaCES: REaL SPILLOvERS FROM g20 EMERgINg MaRKETS", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch4.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch4.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch4.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 4 Online Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch4onlineannex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch4onlineannex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch4onlineannex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Commodity Special Feature", "role": "special-feature", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Executive Summary", "role": "executive-summary", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/execsum.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/execsum.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/execsum.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Foreword", "role": "foreword", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/foreword.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/foreword.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/foreword.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Statistical Appendix", "role": "appendix", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/statsappendix.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/statsappendix.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/statsappendix.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Table a", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/tablea.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/tablea.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/tablea.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Table b", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/tableb.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/tableb.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/tableb.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Full Report", "role": "full-report", "sourceUrl": 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